Government Reopens, Fed Waits for the Next Move

[Derek Brickley]

Week of November 10, 2025

The government’s back open, economic data is catching up, and housing is starting to show life again!

🏛️ Government Reopens — Key Data Catching Up

After weeks of delay, we’ll finally start getting updated reports on jobs, inflation, and retail sales. The timing couldn’t be more important with the Fed’s next meeting less than a month away.

👉 Bottom line: The Fed’s next rate decision hinges on what this backlog of data reveals. Chair Jerome Powell said it best: there’s “no risk-free path” forward. If inflation cools and jobs stay soft, another rate cut in December stays on the table — but nothing’s guaranteed.

💼 Job Market: A Slow October Finish

ADP’s private payroll report showed 42,000 new jobs in October, but their new weekly data suggests companies cut roughly 11,000 jobs per week late in the month.

👉 Bottom line: The job market’s losing some momentum. Until official government numbers catch up, ADP’s real-time data gives the best snapshot — and it points to a softer finish heading into the holidays.

🏡 Home Values Pick Up Steam

According to ICE, home prices rose 0.15% in October — the biggest monthly gain since March — and annual growth ticked up to 0.9%, breaking a nine-month slowdown streak.

👉 Bottom line for real estate: Cotality’s now forecasting +4.1% appreciation over the next year, signaling that buyer demand and tighter inventory are keeping prices resilient. For agents, this is your reminder that the fundamentals remain strong — even as rates move around.

🛍️ Retail Sales Bounce Back

After cooling in September, retail sales rebounded in October. Seven of nine categories saw growth, led by clothing, sports gear, and online shopping.

👉 Bottom line: Consumer spending is still holding up — a good sign for the broader economy and another reason the Fed may not rush more cuts just yet.

📅 What’s Coming Up This Week

• Homebuilder confidence (Tuesday) • Existing home sales (Thursday) • The long-delayed September Jobs Report (Thursday)

Catch you next week, Derek Brickley #LoansbyDB