Mixed Jobs Data, Home Sales Edge Higher

[Derek Brickley]

Week of November 17, 2025

This past week has been... a lot...

📊 September Jobs Report: Strong Hiring, Rising Unemployment

The delayed September Jobs Report finally hit and it came in mixed. We saw 119,000 jobs added (more than the 50,000 forecast), but previous months were revised down again. August is now showing a net loss of 4,000 jobs, and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%.

Because of the shutdown, the BLS won’t release a full October report until after the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting which means the Fed has to set policy without seeing the latest unemployment rate.

Why this matters: With stronger hiring but higher unemployment — and no more clean data coming — the Fed is stuck in the middle. This creates uncertainty, which keeps mortgage rates volatile but trending friendly heading into December.

📉 Jobless Claims Show Slower Hiring

Backlogged claims data finally came in: Initial Claims sat between 220K–235K the last several weeks, but Continuing Claims remained above 1.9 million for the 18th week in a row.

Why this matters: When people stay unemployed longer, it’s a clear sign the labor market is cooling. A softer labor market makes the Fed more open to pausing or cutting rates — which is supportive for mortgage rates.

🏡 Existing Home Sales Rise for the Second Month

NAR reported a 1.2% rise in October closings — slightly above expectations — and 1.7% higher than a year ago. Inventory dipped to 1.52M but remains well above last year’s levels.

Why this matters: These closings reflect buyers who shopped in August/September — before rates improved. So this is just the early wave. If rates continue easing, we could see much stronger activity in November–January.

🔨 Builder Confidence Inches Higher

NAHB’s Builder Confidence Index rose to 38, the highest since April. Buyer traffic and current sales improved, and future sales expectations stayed above 50 for the second straight month.

Why this matters: Builders are early-cycle indicators. When they’re warming up before rates fully settle, it signals renewed confidence heading into 2026.

📅 What to Look for This Week

Now that the government has reopened, watch for:

• September wholesale inflation
• September retail sales
• Case-Shiller home prices
• FHFA home prices
• Pending Home Sales

These will heavily influence market sentiment as we move toward the December Fed meeting.

📈 Technical Picture

Mortgage Bonds are testing a dual ceiling at the 25- and 50-day Moving Averages. A breakout could open 40 bps of upside. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding under its 25-day MA — if it slips lower, next stop is 4%, which would be rate-positive.