📣 Fed Cuts Rates Again as Labor Market Shows More Cracks

[Derek Brickley]

Week of December 8, 2025

The Fed delivered its third rate cut of the year, but the message was anything but unified. Meanwhile, labor data continues pointing to a slower, softer job market. Here are the big takeaways your clients will care about this week.

🏦 Fed Delivers Third Rate Cut, Debate Intensifies

The Fed lowered the Federal Funds Rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 3.50%–3.75% — the third cut this year as policymakers try to balance cooling inflation with weakening economic momentum.

But this vote wasn’t smooth:

• Stephen Miran pushed for a bigger 50-bp cut
• Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid wanted no cut at all

This is one of the most divided Fed discussions we’ve seen all year.

What’s the bottom line?

The Fed is signaling caution. Powell made it clear: there’s “no risk-free path” forward, and they’ll need stronger evidence before making more moves in 2026. ➡️ For real estate: A divided Fed = potential for more rate volatility. But cuts keep financial conditions easing — a positive for affordability and buyer activity.

📉 Job Openings Tick Up — But Don’t Be Fooled

Delayed September and October JOLTS data showed job openings rising to 7.67 million, but two big caveats:

1. Remote jobs get posted in multiple states, artificially boosting totals
2. The hiring rate is tied for the lowest since 2011 (outside COVID)
3. Layoffs hit their highest level since early 2023
4. Quit rate (a confidence measure) fell to the lowest since 2014

The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has dropped from 2:1 → ~1:1 — a big sign of a cooler job market.

What’s the bottom line?

Even with a headline uptick, the underlying health of the labor market is still weakening. ➡️ For buyers: Softer labor data often helps keep mortgage rates drifting lower. ➡️ For agents: Slower hiring = urgency messaging. Buyers may want to secure homeownership before their financial picture changes.

📊 Claims Data Gets Messy Thanks to Holidays + Expiring Benefits

Initial jobless claims rose to 236,000, the highest since September — but the prior week was artificially low due to Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, continuing claims fell sharply but only because:

• Thanksgiving week suppresses filings
• Many individuals hit the end of their 26-week benefit window

What’s the bottom line?

Don’t read too much into this drop — it’s noise, not momentum. ➡️ The real trend remains: people are taking longer to find new jobs, showing genuine labor-market softening.

🍐 Family Hack of the Week

Warm, seasonal Pear Cake (National Pear Month)!

📅 What to Look for This Week

A huge slate of delayed reports finally hits:

• Monday: NAHB Builder Confidence
• Tuesday: Two months of delayed Jobs Reports + Retail Sales
• Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Friday: Existing Home Sales

This is the busiest data week we've had since the shutdown began — expect movement.

📈 Technical Picture

• Mortgage Bonds closed below the 25- and 50-day Moving Averages
• 10-year Treasury yield is stuck between 4.20% resistance and the 100-day MA floor

With jobs + inflation data finally returning, volatility is very possible.