Cheers to 2026 - Let's Talk About What's Coming

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Cheers to 2026 - Let's Talk About What's Coming

Alexander Szikla
Real Estate Agent · New York City · Member since 2020 · 819 posts · 641 votes

First of all, wishing my readers a heartfelt happy New Year with much success in the upcoming year!

A firm called John Burns Real Estate Consulting puts together a regular which I follow and the signal is clear: expansion mode is here.

Capital is flowing again. For the first time in survey history, access to capital improved across every sector. Read that again. While 64% of investors sat on the sidelines last quarter, the smart money knows what that means: less competition for the best deals.

The sector story is strong:

  • -Retail leads at 61—consumer-facing real estate is back
  • -Industrial holds at 60—the backbone of modern commerce isn't slowing down
  • -Multifamily sits at 59—stabilization is setting the floor
  • -Office cracked 53—finally out of contraction and turning the corner

Here's what the headlines won't tell you: While most investors are "waiting for the math to work," the math is already working for those with dry powder and conviction.

Nearly three-quarters of multifamily investors expect distressed sales ahead. That's not a warning—that's a buying opportunity for those positioned to move.

Rates are falling. Capital is thawing.

The investors who deploy now—while others wait for perfect conditions—will be the ones writing the case studies in 2027. Personally, I did a unique deal halfway through 2024 and have since been de-levering. As far as 2026 goes, I plan to deploy at a modestly aggressive pace.

The window is open. The question is: who's walking through it?

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  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    9mo

    OP.  Most of what I see people discussing is a positive outlook like yours above.  So not saying you're an outlier.  But my view is the other way.

    Rates- we just did some financing on both a fixed and Working line, rates are slightly up.  Yes, the Fed rate is down, but the commercial rates are baking in more risk.

    The categories Retail, Industrial and Office mentioned above.  I will go with the above statements I'm sure are data based and my view is not.  All I see are car plant closings, Whiskey closing, soybean market down, meat packing plant closures, drugstores closing, burger joints closing, Target,  etc.  Commodities for industry are at record highs and components/supplies are coming into question.  Unemployment and layoffs increasing.

    My recommendations:

    1.  Trim any underperforming assets.

    2.  Refinance early and go for longer terms, especially on commercial balloon periods, say 5 move to 7 years if possible.  Or expand the Amort period back out, to reduce monthly payments.  Longterm debt to me, on a cash flowing property is the best investment considering dollar devaluation and inflation.

    3.  Move to a higher cash position but only hold for say a year.  USD just devalued 10% in 2025 and it has to continue devaluing going forward due to debt levels.  

    4.  To the degree you have funds.  Buy your way out of unforeseen exposures.  Scope septic's or pump, roof as needed, HVAC eval, etc.  Control your stress points. 

    5.  I do believe it is a Buyers' market.  Look for older listings where Price discovery has occurred for the owners.  Then make offers that work for you.  Ask for financing terms with them.

    6. Watch your Day Job and your Company's stability. If you're not fulltime REI.

    Like any outlook or forecast, I am wrong.  Just a matter of direction, timing and magnitude.

    It's your money.  Always invest based on your outlook and personal situation.  Forget the rest of us.

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  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9mo
    Quote from @Alexander Szikla:

    First of all, wishing my readers a heartfelt happy New Year with much success in the upcoming year!

    A firm called John Burns Real Estate Consulting puts together a regular which I follow and the signal is clear: expansion mode is here.

    Capital is flowing again. For the first time in survey history, access to capital improved across every sector. Read that again. While 64% of investors sat on the sidelines last quarter, the smart money knows what that means: less competition for the best deals.

    The sector story is strong:

    • -Retail leads at 61—consumer-facing real estate is back
    • -Industrial holds at 60—the backbone of modern commerce isn't slowing down
    • -Multifamily sits at 59—stabilization is setting the floor
    • -Office cracked 53—finally out of contraction and turning the corner

    Here's what the headlines won't tell you: While most investors are "waiting for the math to work," the math is already working for those with dry powder and conviction.

    Nearly three-quarters of multifamily investors expect distressed sales ahead. That's not a warning—that's a buying opportunity for those positioned to move.

    Rates are falling. Capital is thawing.

    The investors who deploy now—while others wait for perfect conditions—will be the ones writing the case studies in 2027. Personally, I did a unique deal halfway through 2024 and have since been de-levering. As far as 2026 goes, I plan to deploy at a modestly aggressive pace.

    The window is open. The question is: who's walking through it?


     There of course will be plenty of opportunities in 2026 and capital is flowing to those who have capital. There are still a lot of operators hanging on and bank balance sheets continue t extend and pretend. I do not see 2026 as a banner year overall for real estate, but reality is if you are in real estate for long term you should always win.

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