Last Market Update 2026 - Cape Coral, Ft. Myers, SWFL

[Adam Bartomeo]

As we close out another year in real estate, I wanted to take some time to provide an update of single-family home sales and more importantly, rental pricing and predictions. As you are aware, I eat, sleep, and breath all aspects of real estate in SWFL and understanding the current market and the future are vital to running a successful real estate company. This update is what I am seeing.


Single Family Home Sales
SFH sales have a huge impact on rental pricing and need to be studied in order to predict where the rental market is heading. When the sales inventory of homes decrease so does the rental inventory, but, there is a lag of about 8 -12 months. So, if home sales increase mid 2026 we can expect that rental inventory will decrease 8 - 12 months later, shrinking inventory, and raising prices.

I believe that for SFH sales we are at or very close to the bottom in regard to pricing. Over the past three years we have seen inventory climb and prices drop. But, we should see stabilization and an increase in pricing in 2026. As we look through all of the seeds that were planted in 2025 that will impact real estate in 2026 we can see that interest rates have begun declining, with the help of tariffs manufacturing jobs are beginning to come back to the state, the "Big Beautiful Bill" will provide lower income taxes, there will be bigger tax returns and potential tariff dividend, insurance rates have began decreasing, and the potential for no property taxes for homesteaded properties in Florida. These are some of the main factors that are influencing my positive outlook. Of course, I do not have a crystal ball, tea leaves, or a time machine but after years of declining home prices there are a lot of factors supporting the idea that we are at the bottom and should start inclining. For those of you that are entrepreneurial, it may be one of the best times to buy real estate for the next decade - purchase prices are low, interest rates are lowering, expenses are declining, and sales prices should increase soon.


Rentals
As for rentals, I think that we have another 8 - 12 months before we hit the bottom and prices stop declining. As stated above, there is normally a direct correlation with home sales and rental pricing. We still have a lot of rental inventory on the market and adding to that inventory are apartment buildings and SFH's that are still being built. Just on Skyline Blvd there are to be at least 100 units that should come to market in 2026.

Rental Inventory
The chart illustrates a significant increase in active rental inventory across Southwest Florida since 2022, with available listings rising from the low-4,000 range to roughly 9,000+ by late 2025. This represents a meaningful shift from the extremely tight rental market owners experienced during and immediately after COVID. The growth in inventory is largely driven by new construction homes and apartments, homeowners transitioning properties from short-term to annual rentals, and a slowdown in tenant demand compared to the peak migration years. As a result, tenants now have more choices, and properties that are not priced or presented correctly are taking longer to secure a lease.

Rentals Prices
The next chart highlights the rapid rise and recent normalization of rental prices in Southwest Florida over the past five years. Median rents increased sharply from 2020 through mid-2022, peaking around the $2,500–$2,600 range as demand surged from population growth, limited housing supply, and post-pandemic migration. Since that peak, rents have gradually trended downward and stabilized closer to the low-$2,100 range by late 2025, reflecting a market that is correcting rather than declining.

The current pricing environment is best described as declining. While rents remain well above pre-2020 levels, tenants are more price-sensitive and have greater negotiating power due to increased inventory. Properties that are priced above market are experiencing much longer vacancy periods, while homes that are aligned with current rental values continue to lease successfully (but are still taking 30-60 days). Our strategy focuses on realistic pricing supported by market data, helping owners secure qualified tenants efficiently while preserving income stability in a more competitive rental landscape. There are currently 100+ 3/2/2, 1,700 sq single family homes that are renting in Cape Coral for $1,500 - $1,900. Many of these are 2018 builds or newer. If you currently own apartments, then you can expect for your units to rent for a much lower price.

​What will 2026 hold instore for rentals?
The initial news is not positive, we will continue to see rental pricing decrease, inventory increase, and time to fill units increase for the majority of 2026. We will battle high inventory, new construction homes, and apartment communities that have loads of amenities. We will all be battling for the same tenant's attention and unfortunately pricing will be at the center of the tenant's decision making. On a positive note, we should see an end to the madness and pricing should see stabilization towards the end of the year. Until the market shifts, we will be forced to continue to lower prices while at the same time making improvements to fill units.