Housing Data Delivers an Upside Surprise

[Derek Brickley]

Week of December 29, 2025 | Market Snapshot

As we close out the year, housing data delivered a surprisingly strong finish. Contract signings jumped, home prices showed early signs of acceleration, and jobless claims dipped — a combination that paints a more optimistic picture heading into 2026.

Here’s what stood out and why it matters 👇

Pending Home Sales Jump in November

Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% month over month, marking the strongest pace in nearly three years, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Contracts were also 2.6% higher than a year ago.

Why this matters: Pending sales typically turn into closings within 30–60 days. That means this spike points to stronger closing activity early in the new year, especially as affordability improves.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that lower mortgage rates, rising wages, and increased inventory are finally pulling more buyers off the sidelines.

Home Prices Show Early Signs of Renewed Momentum

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed prices were up 0.4% month over month (seasonally adjusted), with annual appreciation ticking up to 1.4%, its first acceleration since January.

The FHFA Index, which tracks homes financed with conventional mortgages, also showed prices rising 0.4% on the month and 1.7% year over year.

Why this matters: After months of slowing appreciation, prices are starting to stabilize — and even re-accelerate — at the same time buyer demand is improving. If this trend continues, waiting for prices to fall further could become a tougher bet in early 2026.

Unemployment Claims Dip (But Context Matters)

Initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, while continuing claims declined to 1.87M.

Why this matters: The drop likely reflects seasonal timing — employers often avoid layoffs during the holidays, and many people delay filing claims around Christmas travel. Some continuing claims may also be rolling off as benefit eligibility expires.

Bottom line: the labor market isn’t strengthening dramatically, but it’s stable enough to support housing demand without forcing the Fed into aggressive moves.

What to Watch This Week

Jobs data takes center stage:

• Job openings & ADP private payrolls (Wednesday)
• Weekly jobless claims (Thursday)
• Full employment report + delayed construction data (Friday)

These releases will help shape expectations for rates, buyer confidence, and early-year activity.

Technical Snapshot (For the Rate Watchers)

Mortgage bonds closed near the lower end of their recent range, while the 10-year Treasury yield finished just below 4.20% resistance. A break either direction could set the tone for rates heading into January.

Big Picture Takeaway

Buyer activity is picking up before the spring market, home prices are stabilizing sooner than many expected, and affordability is slowly improving. That combination makes the early weeks of 2026 worth paying close attention to — for both buyers and agents.