Declining Birthrates: Demographic Shift For Housing

[Michael Carbonare]

In 1991, the U.S. had:
4.3M births
252M people
Birth rate: 1.64%

In 2024:
3.6M births
343M people
Birth rate: 1.07%

That’s a 35% decline in births relative to population, and 16% fewer births in raw numbers.
This isn’t just another demographic stat. It’s a structural demand shift.

Fewer children means less family formation and less forced homeownership.
Instead of prioritizing square footage, schools, and permanence, more households are choosing flexibility, mobility, and convenience, all which favors renting.

If this trend continues, births will fall below deaths within a decade.
That likely means:
Higher rental demand
Less “must-own” housing demand
Home prices need to adjust to attract buyers

Rates, supply, and zoning get all the attention, but demographics like this cannot be ignored. Assuming homebuyer demand based on yesterday's family formation is an outdated mindset in a new reality.