Housing Outlook For 2026 Darkens After Sharp December Pullback

[Michael Carbonare]

𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 𝐏𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐇𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐦 𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔

Pending home sales dropped sharply in December, falling 9.3% month-over-month and down 3% from a year ago, according to the latest National Association of Realtors figures.
This pullback erased recent gains in contract activity, marking one of the steepest monthly declines of the year.

All four U.S. regions saw month-to-month declines. Only the South showed small annual growth, highlighting regional divergence in demand.

Housing inventory remains tight. 1.18M homes, one of the lowest levels of 2025, limiting buyer options and enthusiasm.

Despite the slowdown, some large markets, (Miami, Charlotte, Boston, Phoenix), still saw year-over-year increases in pending sales, reminding us that real estate is local.

Affordability pressures and 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 high mortgage rates are keeping many buyers sidelined, even as lower rates begin to modestly support activity.

This isn’t a one-month seasonal blip. It’s a market with buyer hesitancy, in large part due to the cost of housing more than any other factors. The trend in early 2026 will be crucial for confirming momentum or deeper softening.