January 2026 Home Buyer Demand Near Record Low

[Michael Carbonare]

𝐇𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐛𝐮𝐲𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫.

January 2026 existing home sales came in at 3.91 million.
Down 4% year-over-year
Down 42% from the pandemic peak
Down 27% from pre-pandemic norms
We are now operating at demand levels that, outside of the GFC period, are historically depressed.

This isn’t a “rates will fix it” story.  𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲.
Home prices remain near record highs.  Monthly ownership costs: principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and maintenance are stretched to levels many buyers simply cannot justify and afford.

So buyers are opting out.
They’re renting; they’re staying put; they’re waiting.
Until pricing realigns with incomes, demand will likely remain constrained.

Volume doesn’t recover meaningfully in housing until affordability improves, either through:
Price correction
Income growth
Rate compression
Or some combination of the three

Right now, none of those are moving fast enough.  
The question isn’t whether demand is weak.
The question is what/who breaks first?  Prices, rates, sellers, or buyers?