Housing Sales. . .Are We Near The Bottom?
๐๐ก๐ ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ๐งโ๐ญ โ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ โ. ๐๐ญ'๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ.
The latest Pending Home Sales Index, (2011 = 100), just hit 71.
Down 33.4% vs. 2019
Down 28% from the 2021 peak (130.7)
Lowest level in 30 years, excluding the brief COVID shock
For context:
2011โ2019 average: 105.3
2021 peak: fueled by 2.7% mortgage rates
Today: mortgage rates 6.1%
2025 estimated sales pace: 4.1M units
This isnโt a minor pullback. Itโs structural:
Affordability remains stretched
Payment shock from higher rates persists
Sellers anchored to 2021 pricing
Buyers waiting for relief (rates or prices)
The key takeaway:
When pending sales sit at historical support for an extended period, pressure builds somewhere in the system. Either through price adjustments, creative financing, or both.
For homeowners: this is not a 2021 market.
For buyers: patience has leverage.
For investors: terms matter more than ever.
The question now isnโt whether the market has slowed. It clearly has. The question is whether participants, (I'm thinking sellers), adjust or remain living in the glory days of yesteryear.