Housing Sales. . .Are We Near The Bottom?

[Michael Carbonare]

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 “𝐜𝐨𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠”. 𝐈𝐭'𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟏 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬.

The latest Pending Home Sales Index, (2011 = 100), just hit 71.
Down 33.4% vs. 2019
Down 28% from the 2021 peak (130.7)
Lowest level in 30 years, excluding the brief COVID shock

For context:
2011–2019 average: 105.3
2021 peak: fueled by 2.7% mortgage rates
Today: mortgage rates 6.1%
2025 estimated sales pace: 4.1M units

This isn’t a minor pullback. It’s structural:
Affordability remains stretched
Payment shock from higher rates persists
Sellers anchored to 2021 pricing
Buyers waiting for relief (rates or prices)

The key takeaway:
When pending sales sit at historical support for an extended period, pressure builds somewhere in the system. Either through price adjustments, creative financing, or both.

For homeowners: this is not a 2021 market.
For buyers: patience has leverage.
For investors: terms matter more than ever.

The question now isn’t whether the market has slowed. It clearly has. The question is whether participants, (I'm thinking sellers), adjust or remain living in the glory days of yesteryear.