Housing Crushes It, Labor Market Shows Cracks

[Derek Brickley]

Two different stories this week, and both matter for the deals your analyzing.

The Labor Market Story: Jobs headline looks great (115k added). But dig deeper: full-time jobs DOWN 424k, part-time UP 123k. People forced into part-time work UP 450k. Job openings dropped to 6.87M (was 12M+ in 2022). Job cuts accelerating (83k in April vs 60k in March). AI restructuring doing the damage.

Translation: Economy is softening. Job growth is becoming less stable.

The Housing Story: New home sales absolutely crushed it. Up 9% February, 7.4% March. Median prices dipped but that's because more sales under $500k - NOT weakness in underlying values. Cotality forecasting 5.1% appreciation over next 12 months.

Translation: Housing market is resilient and strong.

The Opportunity:

This gap matters. Labor uncertainty + housing strength = motivated buyers and solid market fundamentals. For investment property financing, this is a solid environment. Rates are stabilizing (mortgage bonds broke above resistance Friday), and property appreciation is forecasted to remain strong.

If you have deals sitting, now is NOT the time to wait. The labor softness could push stronger buyers to move faster. Window's open.