Updated about 1 month ago on . Most recent reply
What 4,000 Facebook Leads Told Me About Flipping Right Now
THE SHORT VERSION
Roughly 4,000 motivated seller leads came through in the last 30 days. Wholesale offers, FSBOs, direct owners, off-market deals. The usual mix.
The headline numbers:
4,071 leads total in 30 days 378 of them had asking, ARV, and rehab all listed in the same post 31 leads this past week had everything filled in plus a reachable seller, real address, and at least $30k of paper spread
Big top of funnel, narrow bottom.
HOW THIN THE WORKABLE POOL ACTUALLY WAS
Out of 4,000+ leads in a month, the ones with all three numbers filled in (asking, ARV, rehab) came out to 378. Of those:
360 had at least $30k of spread on paper 323 had at least $50k 255 had at least $75k
That's about 8 or 9 leads a day, nationally, where the math could even be run from the post itself. Everything else was missing at least one of the three numbers.
WHERE THE VOLUME WAS
Top 10 states for flip-grade leads last 30 days:
| State | Leads | Median Asking | Typical Spread (when math is there) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 634 | $150,000 | $85,000 |
| TX | 435 | $145,000 | $66,000 |
| CA | 361 | $685,000 | $160,000 |
| GA | 250 | $159,000 | $71,000 |
| NJ | 182 | $325,000 | $128,000 |
| IN | 174 | $82,500 | $47,500 |
| MI | 160 | $53,000 | $52,500 |
| PA | 155 | $92,000 | $52,000 |
| NC | 136 | $140,000 | $90,000 |
| AL | 129 | $65,000 | $50,000 |
California shows the biggest spread numbers but it's based on a small slice of leads that had everything filled in. Florida, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina had the deepest pools with filled-in math.
Indiana, Michigan, and Alabama came in cheapest on entry. Median asking under $85k, spreads in the $47k to $52k range.
DIRECT SELLERS VS WHOLESALERS
Splitting the leads into "direct from owner" (FSBO, off-market owner, direct owner) versus "wholesale" (someone trying to assign a contract):
| Type | Count | Median Asking | Median Spread | Reachable by phone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct from owner | 1,270 | $125,000 | $75,000 | 29% |
| Wholesale | 2,801 | $165,000 | $63,000 | 39% |
Wholesale leads were more than double the direct count, priced about $40k higher on the ask, and had higher phone coverage. Direct seller leads were lower priced with bigger paper spreads but were less reachable.
Wholesale posts that included phrases like "end buyers only" or "EMD required up front" showed up in about 6 to 7% of wholesale leads. These are usually daisy chains, where the poster doesn't have clean control of the contract.
HOW FRESH THE LEADS WERE
Median time from when a lead was posted to when it was captured: 51 minutes.
2,574 leads captured within 1 hour of posting 3,114 within 6 hours 3,377 within 24 hours
About 1,607 leads (just over half of the leads captured within 6 hours) also hit a basic quality threshold: had key fields filled in, real seller intent, looked actionable on the surface. That works out to roughly 54 fresh, decent-quality leads per day.
HOW MANY OF THESE WERE ACTUALLY CALLABLE
Most leads had some kind of contact info attached, but a lot of the time that just meant the poster's Facebook profile. The breakdown of leads where a real phone number was attached:
| Lead Type | Has phone number | Has phone AND street address |
|---|---|---|
| Wholesale | 39% | 14% |
| Direct owner | 33% | 14% |
| Off-market owner | 28% | 8% |
| FSBO | 25% | 10% |
Across all flip-grade leads, the subset with both a phone number AND a real street address came out to roughly 400 to 500 over the month. That's 13 to 17 a day across the country.
The rest required either a Facebook DM or skip tracing from the address to actually pick up the phone.
HOW CONDITION WAS TAGGED
Each lead got a condition tag pulled from the post text. The split:
1,930 leads: condition unknown 1,566 leads: fixer 450 leads: updated A handful of other tags (new construction, light rehab, etc.)
Almost half came in as unknown or missing. The "fixer" bucket was the largest tagged category. Median rehab estimate on fixer-tagged leads was $45,000, which is the seller's or wholesaler's number, not a contractor bid.
WHAT A WORKABLE WEEK LOOKED LIKE
Filtering the last 7 days down to leads that hit every box (actionable, has phone or email, real address, ARV and rehab both listed, at least $30k spread, not turnkey) returned 31 leads. Top 10 below:
| City | State | Asking | ARV | Rehab | Spread | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit | MI | $85,000 | $160,000 | $30,000 | $75,000 | 3/1 SFH, OBO |
| Garland | TX | $257,500 | $375,000 | $54,000 | $117,500 | 4/2 brick, recent roof + HVAC |
| East Point | GA | $145,000 | $300,000 | $75,000 | $110,000 | Off-market SFH |
| Lincoln | IL | $28,000 | $115,000 | $40,000 | $40,000 | 3/1, 1,256 sqft |
| Beaverton | OR | $380,000 | $500,000 | $25,000 | $120,000 | 3/2.5 with 2-car garage |
| Salem | OR | $250,000 | $400,000 | $70,000 | $150,000 | 3/1.5, 1,280 sqft |
| St. Pete | FL | $750,000 | $1,150,000 | $100,000 | $300,000 | Two 6BR/3.5BA properties packaged |
| Batesburg-Leesville | SC | $110,000 | $202,500 | $35,000 | $92,500 | 3/2.5, built 2000, cosmetic |
| Gastonia | NC | $75,000 | $190,000 | $50,000 | $115,000 | 2/1 assignment |
| Atlanta | GA | $119,900 | $230,000 | $50,000 | $110,100 | 2BR, 983 sqft |
These are leads where the math at least pencils out from the post. The ARV and rehab numbers come from the seller or the wholesaler, not from independent comps.
A FEW THINGS WORTH KNOWING ABOUT THE NUMBERS
A few notes on the data itself.
ARV was almost always pulled from what the seller wrote in the post, not from a comp study. Same with rehab estimates. Only about 10% of leads had a rehab number attached at all, and when they did, it was the poster's number.
Paper spread assumes buying at asking and selling at the stated ARV with the stated rehab. None of that is verified inside the post.
About half of all flip-grade leads were missing a condition tag, so any filter based on condition alone is throwing out a big chunk of the pool blind.
THE FULL FUNNEL
For the 30-day window:
4,071 total flip-grade leads 378 with asking, ARV, and rehab all filled in 360 of those with $30k+ paper spread ~400 to 500 with phone number AND street address attached 31 in the last 7 days hitting every filter at once
That's the picture. The headline number was 4,071. The number where you could actually run math from the post was under 400. The number that hit every workable criterion in a given week was around 30.
Same dataset, very different numbers depending on which one you're looking at.