2025 migration vs walkability data: a pattern Sun Belt SFR investors should probably

[Sarath Sabarish]

Quick disclosure upfront: I built SafeStreets, a walkability data tool. I'm posting this because the analysis I just ran felt relevant to buy-side underwriting, and I'm curious what BP investors think.

I pulled the three big 2025 migration datasets:

• U-Haul Growth Index 2025 (DIY moves)
• United Van Lines 49th Annual Movers Study (full-service moves)
• Redfin Q4 2025 Migration Report (search-intent)

Then cross-referenced the top 10 destination metros against walkability tiers computed from public federal data (NHTSA FARS for pedestrian-fatality corridors, EPA Smart Location Database, US Census ACS, OpenStreetMap, Mobility Database GTFS).

Headline pattern: 6 of the top 10 destination metros are Car-dependent. 5 of the 7 top outflow cities are Walkable. Americans are net-leaving walkable cities for car-dependent ones at scale.

What this might mean for SFR/BTR investors:

1. The Sun Belt growth markets everyone's piling into are mostly car-dependent. Not bad, just means walkable pockets within those metros (East Austin, Roosevelt Row in Phoenix, Inman Park in Atlanta, Lawrenceville in Pittsburgh) probably carry an outsized rent premium because they're scarce in those cities.

2. The pedestrian-safety exposure is real. Atlanta posts 85% of pedestrian deaths after dark, Phoenix 82%, Tucson 84%. If you're underwriting a property on a 6-lane arterial in one of these metros, the headline rent yield may not fully account for long-tail liability or insurance creep.

3. The compare data lets you look at "is X or Y better for the tenant I'm targeting" at the neighborhood level rather than the citywide tier, which is usually the only resolution available.

Full piece if anyone wants the methodology and raw numbers (no signup, free read): safestreets.streetsandcommons.com/insights/walkability-gap-2025-moves

Genuinely curious to hear from the room:

• Are you adjusting buy criteria based on migration data, or sticking with proven metros?
• For SFR portfolios, does neighborhood-level walkability factor into your acquisition checklist, or is it already priced into the comp set?
• Anyone running structured walkability or pedestrian-safety data alongside cap rates?