Pending Home Sales Are Down Nationally—Who Cares?

[Marc Winter]

It gets me: every time a national housing report drops—like NAR's latest Pending Home Sales showing a 5.4% month‑over‑month decline—the headlines start flying. "Sales are slowing." "Market cooling." "Demand weakening."

I really don’t care! National housing data is interesting. Local housing data is actionable.

The NAR report itself proves the point. National Trend: Down

Pending home sales fell 5.4% month‑over‑month, 0.3% year‑over‑year. And All four major U.S. regions saw declines on a monthly basis.

If you stopped reading there, you’d assume the entire country is softening. But keep going.

Local Reality: Some Markets Are Surging

In the 50 largest metros, several posted double‑digit year‑over‑year gains in pending sales:

• Virginia Beach (+15.4%)
• Sacramento (+15.2%)
• Kansas City (+14.4%)
• Richmond (+14.0%)
• Buffalo (+12.1%)
• Austin (+11.1%)
• San Francisco (+10.7%)
• Los Angeles (+9.6%)
• Miami (+9.5%)
• St. Louis (+9.1%)

If you’re investing in one of these markets, the “national slowdown” narrative is irrelevant. Your market is accelerating. And if you’re investing in a market that’s cooling? The national numbers won’t save you.

This Is Why National Housing Data Misleads New Investors

National reports blend high‑cost coastal metros, affordable Midwest markets, fast‑growth Sun Belt cities, and slow‑growth rural counties.

It’s like averaging the temperature of Miami and Minneapolis and calling it “the national climate.” Interesting? Sure. Useful for investors? Nope.

Real Estate Is Hyper‑Local--Investors don’t buy “the U.S. housing market.” They buy one neighborhood, on one street, with one school district, inside one price band, serving one tenant demographic.

Our returns come from local supply and demand, not national headlines.

If your submarket has job growth, population inflow, tight inventory, rising rents, strong absorption, then your investment environment is strong—regardless of what’s happening in the Midwest or West Coast.

My takeaway: National housing data is a US weather report. Local housing data is your actual local forecast. Use national numbers for context, look to your local numbers for decisions.

The question shouldn’t be “Is the U.S. housing market slowing?” The question we care about is “What is my market doing?”

That’s where better investing starts.

[Henry Lazerow]

Chicago is on fire, prices up from last year and multiple offers on most properties. Rents up 10% YOY in many areas with multiple applications right away. The rental market I have never seen so hot, some bigger units fetching even 15% over last years prices. Been good even with all the doom and gloom news over last few years, need to just drown that out and look at the neighborhood stats yourself.