Updated 24 days ago on . Most recent reply
Is finding the ARV through precision underwriting and indicators the modern way?
Is using macro and micro indicators like Inventory Lock-In Gap, Absorption Rate, Appreciation, The 15 minute suburb walk, Rental Yield, etc... and finding the "strongest" indicator for a market like Fort Worth, TX and Appreciation. And create a list and use propwire to enter the filters and advanced filters based off the indicator for the market:
1. Geographic & Property Type Filters
Location: Enter Fort Worth, TX or specific high-velocity zip codes (76133, 76110, 76112, 76107).
Property Type: Select Single Family. This ensures you are targeting the "Bread and Butter" homes that flippers and retail buyers are currently fighting over.
2. The "Appreciation & Equity" Advanced Filters
These filters isolate owners who have benefited most from the market climb.
Equity %: Set to 50% – 100%. This ensures the owner can walk away with a significant check even after a wholesale discount.
Ownership Length: Set to 10+ Years (or 15+ for a more "locked-in" list).
Why: Owners who bought in 2011–2016 have seen massive appreciation. They likely have mortgage rates around 3-4%, meaning they won't sell unless they have a strong reason to "unlock" that equity.
Last Sale Price: Set a Maximum of $225,000.
Why: In many Fort Worth pockets, a home bought for $200k a decade ago is now worth $350k+. This filter targets that specific "wealth gap."
3. The "Motivation" Layer (List Stacking)
Appreciation is the indicator, but Motivation is the trigger. Use the "Lead Type" filter to find people who need to move despite their low interest rate.
Primary Lead Type: Select Probate or Tired Landlords (Absentee Owner + 15 years ownership).
Secondary Layer (The "Vulnerability" Stack): Filter for Vacant or Tax Delinquent.
And I run the search and get the search results for the 1st property until the end of the list in propwire. And for the 1st property I do these steps:
The Scenario
Subject Property: 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,600 sq. ft. in a suburban Fort Worth zip code (76133).
Condition: Needs a full cosmetic "lipstick" remodel (kitchen, baths, floors, paint).
Step 1: The "90-Day Velocity" Comp Search
In an appreciation-heavy market, standard 6-12 month comps are useless. You only look at the last 90 days.
Comp A (Sold 80 days ago): $310,000
Comp B (Sold 45 days ago): $325,000
Comp C (Sold 10 days ago): $335,000
There should be at least 3-5 Comps.
The Comps A, B, and C should be fully renovated and should be apples to apples following the gold standard comps (same bedroom/bath, -10%-+10% sqft, etc...) and be in the same neighborhood, house style, etc...
The Trend: You see a clear $10k–$15k monthly "climb." For precision underwriting, your ARV is $335,000, not an average of the three.
Step 2: Calculate the "Absorption Adjustment"
Check the Days on Market (DOM) for those comps.
If the average DOM is under 14 days, it confirms a high-demand appreciation environment.
In Fort Worth, if inventory is under 2 months, you can "trend" your ARV up by 1–2% to account for the time it takes to flip (usually 4–6 months).
Adjusted ARV: $335,000 + 2% ($6,700) = $341,700 (Rounded to $342k).
Step 3: Estimate Precision Repairs
Use local Texas labor rates. For a 1,600 sq. ft. "lipstick" flip in Fort Worth:
Kitchen/Baths: $15,000
Flooring/Paint: $10,000
Mechanicals/Exterior: $10,000
Total Repairs: $35,000.
Step 4: Apply the "Hot Market" Buy-Box %
In a stagnant market, you use 70%. In an appreciation market like Fort Worth, flippers will accept a 75% or even 80% rule because they know the house will appreciate while they are swinging hammers.
Calculation: $342,000 (ARV) x 0.75 = $256,500.
Step 5: The MAO Formula
Now, subtract your repairs and your desired assignment fee.
$256,500 (Buy Box)
– $35,000 (Repairs)
– $10,000 (Wholesale Fee)
MAO = $211,500.
If I find no comps that are fully renovated I go to the next property in the search result in propwire. I should aim to find 30+ leads a day that have been comp'd.
I just want to know is this the correct way of doing this. Or is there something that I am still missing?
I had a contract in dotloop with a seller that wanted to sign a contract, I used the TREC contract, and started to find a buyer but told me that the comps were not comparable, and the ARV was off I had $318k and said the ARV was $220k-$240k, and that if he took the deal he would be underwater $100k. So I know I did not do the comps right and did not follow it right I think. So is this how a pro wholesaler would get the ARV?
Most Popular Reply
If I may be blunt, based on the above and your previous posts, I would say you are over thinking everything - with the help of Gemini.
Get the feedback from the buyer directly and ask him why it's overpiced.
A better option (not as perfect as MLS though) than the calculation above: Look at Zillow, scroll down and look at the map of neighboring properties and see what they're selling for. The more you properties you look at the more you will get a feel. Make an offer that feels too low and then negotiate up from there. Make mistakes and fail forward. Don't try to perfect it on your first deal.