Western NY Single family Deal

Hi all,

I'm working on my first deal and it's a SFH FSBO who wants $69,000. The home is about 1500 sq. ft., 4 bd 1 bth, and .08 acre lot, and small detached garage. This home is pretty solid inside and out with good mechanicals, good roof, new water service, updated electrical. The additional things it would need are some more updated windows, updated furnace and hot water heater (Both working, but inefficient), gutters, and a new paved driveway (not essential, but could help direct water away from foundation.

The Numbers:

Asking Price: $69,000

Repair estimates: $15,000

ARV: $72,000

Rental income Estimate: $1,100/ mth

Taxes: $3,000 annually

Flood insurance: $500 Anually

Homeowner's Insurance: $1000 monthly

My research has told me thus far that a purchase price of $50,000 would make this work, but I'd like to know what others think. And if I'm correct, how have others presented a significantly lower offer with success?

Thanks for the help,

Josh M.