Is this potential rental a deal? Scares about pulling triggee

The seller has agreed to sell the house for $150,000, repairs are around 20k. ARV is 195,000. Rent in area are 1500-1600. Good school district.

I’m scared shitless. This would be my first investment property. Also, the taxes on the house have increased and will be $5900, which would really eat into my cash flow unless I can protest at next opportunity. Gotta love Texas.

I would use hard money then a refinance into a rental loan. I’d be basically putting 38k down And spending 10k in closing costs. Considering that, my cash flow would be $150- $250/mo, not considering vacancy or repairs in that number.

Good deal? Bad deal? Help! About to get cold feet.