Nonresidential Construction is about to take a dip

Had a nice keynote speech from an economist today.  One slide, in particular, was very fascinating and I figured I'd share it here.  

The idea here is that nonresidential construction is a lagging sector compared to US industrial production. USIP got hit as a result of COVID, but nonresidential construction has not yet felt the impact since it lags by about a half-year.  It looks like it won't be nearly as bad as 08 since there isn't this massive spike of overbuilding that we saw back then, but a decline is still in the works.

Thoughts?