Rent Projections in 30a. Are these projections realistic?

Question

Hello, building a home in 30a.  Will be renting through the year.  The high season is May/June/July/Oct.

I'm trying to get a realistic gauge on rental income outside of those months.  I found this post on STR site

https://theshorttermshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Fort...

Anybody have comments on rent for those months?  Ours is a 2800 4 br sleeps 12, very nice home in a pool community, deeded beach, and beach shuttle.

A few existing homes in the community are $70k annual.  I cannot see the Panhandle renting 12 months as projected in that short term shop projection.

Thoughts?  Thank you

Dan Slaughter · Answer

A couple of points to consider when looking at this.   This is data from 2022 for Fort Walton beach so this is not a reliable source for revenue projections on 30A.

Find your local comps and use @Luke Carl 's Enemy Method.  Local on 30A means your immediate area.  Rental rates for a 4BR in Rosemary Beach are going to be different than a 4BR in Santa Rosa.

Dan Slaughter · Answer

There will be some revenue but not at the rates of the high season.

I can typically get snowbirds in January and February.  March and April are higher rental weeks because of school spring break schedules.

Nov & Dec will likely only be the holiday weeks renting but they are decent weeks.

This is always a helpful link to predict demand in the shoulder seasons.

https://www.visitsouthwalton.com/userfiles/2023-2024_South_W...

Ricardo Hidalgo · Answer

30A is an equity market... not cashflow... prob break even and that area is very saturated with rentals. Unless it very high end finishes with a pool... best of luck.

January Johnson · Answer

Nice!  I'm sure it's lovely.  Good luck to you!

Michael Sylver · Answer

Hi January.  4 BR home in Seacrest, its south of 98 on the east end next to Rosemary.  Very family friendly.  Community pool and deeded beach access.

January Johnson · Answer

March is going to be one of your biggest months. Don't count it out!

January Johnson · Answer

Hi there - I work for The Short Term Shop, so I can answer a lot of questions for you.Our high season begins in March.  March and April bring families and college students for spring break.  Our slower months are definitely Nov - Feb.

How big is the house you are building and where is it located?  North of 98 won't do well for STRs.  Properties with more than 4 bedrooms won't rent as well in the off season.  Do you have a pool?

There are MANY factors to consider here.  I'd be happy to speak with you further if you'd like to PM me.

Michael Sylver · Answer

Thank you!  This is very helpful.  I see rent projections of $125k for my scope of home. However I'm skeptical that's the max, so I'm using 60% of that as a revenue budget.

Michael Sylver · Answer

@Dan Slaughter I appreciate the response!  I looked at all the beach data.  My question is the seasonality of the Santa Rosa / Rosemeay Beach area.  Specifically, can ANY rent be expected in the off season months such as Jan through March.

My assumption is $0 rent those months other than a holiday week like Thanksgiving Christmas and Easter, where the projections are showing thousands per month.

As a frequent traveler to the area, I cannot imagine much rent revenue in Jan, Feb, March, April, Nov, Dec.  That's the specific question.

Rent Projections in 30a. Are these projections realistic?

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