Business cycle-expansion, peak, recession or trough?

Question

Where would you say we are in the business cycle right now in terms of macroeconomics?

Olivia G Gonzalez · Answer

Hi Greg, love your response to this! Specially the GOT reference! Everything you say makes sense and I agree with your assessment.

Greg Weik · Answer

Hey @Olivia G Gonzalez I'm not sure the current business (and specifically real estate) situation lends itself to any specific category.

In my corner of the world, I interact with clients who own rental properties going up and down the I-25 corridor.  It's business as usual.

Houses are renting, all my tenants (in nearly 1,000 doors) have paid rent in March, and some of my current clients are looking at adding more doors to their portfolio to have us manage.

Given this (admittedly anecdotal) snapshot of a few thousand people, and how they are going through life at the moment through the lens of money (as in, do they have it and how to they spend it), it does not seem we are in a recession or a trough.  To use your categories, macroeconomically speaking, we are either enjoying business-cycle expansion or a peak at the moment.

Of course, this could all change almost overnight.  The impact of tariffs, the impact of massive layoffs, and the impact of stock market uncertainty all have not hit Main Street yet.  These things all tend to have a delayed effect, but I suspect as John Snow would say, "Winter is coming."

My crystal ball suggests we will hit a deep recession within the next 6 months as all these factors coalesce.  Inevitably, there will be a significant impact on goods and services across the economy.

Variable: AI could kill us all in the same timeframe.

Hope I'm wrong! :)