Flip or BRRRR? How I Run the Numbers Before Picking a Strategy

Same property, two totally different outcomes depending on which exit you model. Here's the rough framework I use before deciding:

Run repair-cost-adjusted ARV first — what does it actually sell for once the work is done

Model the flip: ARV minus repairs, holding costs, and selling costs = profit

Model the BRRRR: post-refi cap rate and DSCR based on realistic (not best-case) rent

Compare holding-cost exposure — a flip that sits 60 extra days changes the math fast; a rental that cash-flows thin does too

Usually one option is clearly stronger once the numbers are side by side — but I've had properties where it was genuinely close either way.

What usually tips the decision for you — cash flow needs, market conditions, or something else?