Anyone had two systems die the same month?

Question

Bought a duplex where both units had the water heater and HVAC installed within a few months of each other, same original construction batch. Didn't think much of it until I realized that means they're also going to age out around the same time, together.

Been trying to figure out if I should just accept that and budget for a rough year when it happens, or actually stagger replacements early on purpose, replace one a year or two ahead of schedule just to spread out the risk instead of waiting for both to hit end-of-life at once.

Anyone dealt with this kind of "born together, dying together" situation? Did you let it ride or deliberately break up the timing?

Nadir M. · Answer

Andrew — the breaker box example is a good one, some systems give you real warning signs and others just don't. Fair point on newer appliances too, small sample size cuts both ways.

Drew — no argument that exact timing is unpredictable, that's kind of the whole premise of having a reserve in the first place. The batch-risk point was less about forecasting the exact month and more about not treating two same-age systems as statistically independent when they clearly aren't. But agreed, all of this is directional, not a prediction.

Drew Sygit · Answer

As others have stated, have not found a way to accurately predict/anticipate when a system will fail.

So, I find all the worry about budgeting for CapEx with SFR humorous🙃

David Krulac · Answer

We had hot water heatres last 6.5 years with a 6 year warranty and had a hot water heater last 35 years. Personally never saw two HWH with same born date have the same next replacement date.

Nadir M. · Answer

Jim — that's actually a cleaner version of what I was getting at. Waiting for real signals (repairs, declining performance, an inspection finding) instead of an arbitrary "replace it a year early" schedule avoids wasting good remaining life while still buying you separation once one system tips first. Budgeting for both from day one regardless is the part that matters most — that's what actually protects you whether they end up staggering naturally or not.

Jim Johnson · Answer

I’d let them ride, but budget as if they could both fail in the same year. I wouldn’t replace a healthy HVAC or water heater a year or two early just to create separation on the calendar. Where I might intentionally stagger them is once one starts showing its age through repairs, declining performance, or an inspection that tells me it’s getting close. At that point I’d rather replace that one on my schedule, which also gives me some breathing room before the other eventually follows. The key for me would be having enough reserved for both from day one, because with systems installed together I’d assume that second bill may not be far behind the first.

Andrew Severino · Answer

There is no telling when these items will die. I too have had HVAC systems last 20 years, however I will concede that I can't comment on the durability of newer systems as the time has not lapsed. IT really can be luck of the draw - I just has two brand new Maytag washers need warranty repairs practically out of the box - so you never van tell. No cost to me other than my time arranging (which I do consider a cost) but you never can tell. I find with smaller properties - duplexes like yours -  major Capex events are very difficult to make up for unless you have zero to little debt on the property. I start with small properties. However I find with a much larger apartment complex it's rare I have multiple systems collapse at once and the leverage rent roll seems to absorb the cost. Property wide systems usually start to show warning signs. I had this with old breaker boxes across 48 apartments - a couple started to fail, we made an assessment and had time to organize a property wide update to all boxes before any more failures. We were able to budget for it and do build upgrades which reduced cost significantly. And sometimes in this business you just have bad luck and have to push through. Planning ahead and budgeting is always smart regardless.

Nadir M. · Answer

This is a real scenario worth planning for rather than hoping around. Staggering on purpose tends to be the safer play — replacing one system a year or two ahead of schedule "wastes" some remaining life on paper, but it avoids financing two big-ticket replacements (plus possible vacancy) in the same season. A common approach is to treat systems installed in the same batch as one combined risk line item in reserve planning rather than two independent ones, since they're not actually independent risks.

What age are they at now — if you're getting close to typical end-of-life (roughly 10-15 years for HVAC, 8-12 for water heaters), I'd lean toward staggering sooner rather than later.

Bill B. · Answer

Hot water heaters “usually” last 6-10 years.  Your HVAC should last at least 20 years. We get that long out of HVAC systems in the Vegas heat. Units that might be  “on” for 2-3 months straight of above 75 degree heat. In 20 years with a dozen properties, maybe 20 ac units (many have 2 units) I’ve replaced 6. So 70% are over 20 years old.  I might have a few capacitors per year, and a motor every year or two. But this is with zero annual checkups, performance reviews, etc etc.

Water heaters are a different story. I don’t think I’ve gone 2 years without replace one. If the average is 1.5 years I’m getting about 8 years out of garage stored, gas powered water heaters.  They used to run about $900 but I think I paid $1,200 for the last 50 gallon installed.  Really a non-issue and no worse than a new fridge.

Michele Fischer · Answer

We have not had an issue with that.  They may technically be end of life at the same time, but one may last longer than the other or you can proactively change one out a bit sooner to get them on a different rotation.

But, also, if you have your reserves built up, you shouldn't really care either.  I may be easier and more cost efficient to change them out at the same time.

Anyone had two systems die the same month?

Most Popular Reply