How Do You Know If the Numbers Behind an STR Deal Are Actually Reliable?

Question

When looking at an STR investment, the spreadsheet can look great — but the result is only as reliable as the numbers going into it.

Occupancy, ADR, operating expenses, cleaning costs, financing… a small change in one assumption can completely change the outcome.

What I find interesting is figuring out where those numbers came from in the first place. Seller history? Property manager estimates? STR data platforms? Comparable properties? Your own research?

Before deciding whether an STR deal makes sense, which numbers do you verify independently, and which sources do you trust most?

Michael Baum · Answer

You can never be 100% on all data points. All you can do is hit VRBO and AirBNB and see what others are doing in your immediate area. Start there and work your way out.

Andrew Steffens · Answer

In addition to managing around 60 properties in the Tampa area primarily, I also sell 2-3 properties per month on average.  Most of them are turnkey.  Sometimes sellers have wonderful financial statements, othertimes a screenshot from Airbnb at best, and everything in between.  Financials are great, but can be spoofed quite easily so I think it is best still to compare it to other similar properties in the immediate area.  Being an active PM, as well as a property owner myself, anticipating expenses is not too difficult for me.  The biggest variable is accouting for a property's current condition, but a good inspection company's report can help there too.  When in doubt be conservative on income, high on expenses and you should end up alright.

Dan H. · Answer

I find the best income estimate comes from the top manager/co-host in the area.  Especially if they are going to manage the unit, they will want to provide a high, but attainable, income estimate.

Expenses are fairly easy, but when I look to enter a new market I have an expert in that market look at my numbers to obtain their input.

Roxana Castaneda · Answer

That makes sense. I’m not an investor myself, but I’m researching how STR managers evaluate properties and one thing that keeps coming up is exactly that — using your own numbers instead of relying blindly on someone else’s assumptions.

John Underwood · Answer

As Mike says, get your own numbers.

And have a buffer and cash reserves.

Michael Eskenasy · Answer

I’d trust almost none of the headline numbers by themselves.

For an STR, the question isn’t “what’s the ADR?” or “what’s occupancy?” It’s what evidence produced those numbers, over what period, and under what operating conditions?

My order of operations is:

Seller history = useful, but verify against bank statements / platform statements if available.

STR data platforms = directional, not gospel. Good for market shape and comp discovery, weaker as a substitute for property-specific operating history.

Comparable properties = only useful if they’re actually comparable on bedroom count, location, amenities, seasonality, quality, management intensity, and regulatory status.

Property manager estimates = useful if they’ll show the assumptions underneath them.

Then I stress the model.

What happens if occupancy is 10–15% lower? ADR drops 10%? Cleaning turns cost more? Insurance jumps? Property taxes reset? Maintenance runs hot? Platform fees change? Local STR rules tighten?

I also verify the things people routinely leave out: utilities, furnishing replacement, capex, management, turnover, permits, licensing, local taxes, insurance structure, and seasonality by month instead of averaging the whole year.

The spreadsheet isn’t the model.

The provenance of every assumption is the model.

Roxana, happy to connect if you want to compare notes. We do a lot of real-estate underwriting and decision-architecture work, and this is exactly the kind of thing we spend time decomposing.

Roxana Castaneda · Answer

Thank you, Michael. That makes sense — starting with what comparable properties are actually doing in the immediate area seems like a practical first step. I appreciate your perspective.

Roxana Castaneda · Answer

Thanks, Michael. This is extremely helpful. I actually come from a systems/technology background rather than being an STR investor myself, and I've been studying how investors evaluate these decisions while developing spreadsheet-based decision tools. That's why I'm especially interested in hearing how experienced investors approach the assumptions behind the numbers. I'd be happy to connect. Thanks for offering.

Roxana Castaneda · Answer

That’s a great point about property condition being one of the biggest variables. Thanks for sharing your perspective — especially with the number of properties you manage.

How Do You Know If the Numbers Behind an STR Deal Are Actually Reliable?

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