What Housing Shortage??

The “housing shortage” narrative is getting harder to defend. U.S. existing-home inventory just hit 4.88 months of supply. That’s the highest level since 2015.

Look at the direction of the chart.

After collapsing to just 1.60 months of supply during the pandemic, inventory has been steadily rebuilding.

We’re not anywhere near the 11+ months seen during the 2008 housing crash. But that’s not the point.

The market doesn’t have to repeat 2008 to become a very different market. In some markets today, inventory has already reached 6–7 months of supply.

That’s no longer a seller’s market.

It’s a market where buyers have choices and where sellers have to compete.

Where price reductions become more common, (over 50% in some markets).

The mantra of “Just wait, there aren't enough houses” becomes increasingly difficult to defend. The housing shortage may have been real. But that narrative is now history.