Real Estate News & Commentary

3 Strategies I Use to Succeed in a Cooling Multifamily (or Any) Market

Expertise: Personal Development, Commercial Real Estate, Real Estate News & Commentary, Landlording & Rental Properties
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In a previous post, I discussed the possibility that the multifamily frenzy we've experienced over the past seven years may be cooling off. So, a lot of investors may be wondering about the best strategies to employ in the event that this little slowdown turns into a full blown downturn.

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My strategy for multifamily investing in a downturn is the same as my strategy for investing any time.

Though there are many components to an investment strategy, I’d like to point out three strategic aspects that guide my thinking and our firm’s policy.

These strategic components are not necessary for any multifamily project to work. There are a lot of ways to make (and lose) a lot of money using a variety of multifamily buying and operating strategies. People have made a killing developing new multifamily assets, buying class C assets with momentum plays, and combining neighboring assets.

But I like the following three strategies because they have stood the test of time in a variety of economic upturns and downturns. And as we’ll see in a moment, the early effects of a softening in multifamily are adversely affecting some operators who depend on other strategies.

To give you a bit of context, my firm focuses on acquiring and operating commercial grade (100+ units) class B (20 to 50 years old in general) garden style (not high-rise) multifamily assets in large and growing cities.

Operators in other niches may benefit from these strategies, too. Even a new apartment developer can implement strategies #2 and #3 in their operations.

Three of our key strategies are:

  1. Acquire value-add opportunities.
  2. Buy for cash flow. Aim for appreciation as a bonus.
  3. Cater to renters-by-necessity.

3 Strategies I Use to Succeed in a Cooling Multifamily (or Any) Market

1. Acquire value-add opportunities.

As I discussed in a previous article, it’s important to have some buffer in the event of lower rent growth and appreciation. Buying mismanaged, under-marketed, and value-add multifamily assets can provide this opportunity.

Though I haven't seen this definition anywhere, the simplest way I can quickly explain the value-add opportunity is: buying an asset that has a given, known return (return on investment a.k.a. ROI) and meaningfully improving some aspect of the property in a way that the ROI on the improvements is much higher than the ROI on the asset as a whole. This meaningfully raises the blended average ROI on the entire project.

Here’s a simple example.

My company just acquired a 125-unit townhome community in Lexington, Kentucky. During the first week of evaluating this purchase, we noticed that the water and sewer bills were very high. The owner was eating that cost. Neighboring properties (our comps) charge tenants the full cost of water and sewer, plus other utilities.

Richmond Commons Townhomes in Lexington, KY

One of our earliest steps in the due diligence process was bringing in a utilities consultant. This firm confirmed that the water bill was 110% higher than it should have been. (Yes, over double.) This amounts to about $60,000 per year, which is roughly 10% of the asset's net income.

This could be due to a lot of tenant waste (“It’s not my bill”), but it is certainly more than that. There must be leaks in the system. In fact, we learned that the pool water level drops about six inches daily all season. (“We just fill ‘er back up everyday.”)

Related: How to Invest in Property When You Fear a Housing Bubble

The solution starts with installing individual water meters for every unit and the common areas. These web-interfacing units will allow us to identify the source of the problem(s) within weeks. And they will give us the opportunity to start billing back tenants for water and sewer if we choose to at some point (we will).

The cost of water and sewer meters is about $65,000, so a $60,000 annual cost reduction is a 92% ROI if we can achieve those savings. Not bad.

We also learned that we can install programmable thermostats at the same time (economies of scale since they share one router) for only about $12,000. This is a nice upgrade for green-conscious tenants. But it also provides us with an opportunity to bill tenants for gas usage (by using an established formula calculating temperatures, etc.).

If we choose to bill tenants back for gas, the savings should be an additional $27,000 or so annually. The ROI on this is over 200% annually ($27,000 ÷ $12,000).

Note that by spending the $77,000 to make these changes, we are theoretically achieving an increased asset value of a whopping $1,240,000.

Wait… what?

It's simple. The value of a commercial multifamily asset is calculated by dividing the NOI by the cap rate. Assuming a 7% cap rate, we divide the annual utility savings ($87,000) by the cap rate (0.07) to achieve this result.

This is another reason I—and many others—love commercial multifamily. You can often "force appreciation" through simple changes (as opposed to residential real estate that is valued largely on comps).

These are two quick examples of value-add upgrades from my world. Note that many value-adds are achieved by upgrading interiors and increasing rents and other income.

2. Buy for cash flow. Aim for appreciation as a bonus.

Real estate investors who bought for appreciation before the last downturn often got burned. When rents flattened, values plummeted, and ARM mortgage interest rates rose, millions of single family homeowners went to foreclosure. Some multifamily owners faced the same fate.

Those who bought with an eye to cash flow—and particularly those investing for the long-term—typically fared better. Many rode out the downturn and gobbled up more properties. Those investors are sitting pretty right now.

Rod Khleif, an experienced investor from Florida, was on my podcast. He told his tale of growing his net worth by $30 million in just one year (2006)—then watching it plummet by $50 million the following year. He eventually lost his portfolio of 800 Florida single family and multifamily properties to the bank.

What happened? Rod told me that his multifamily assets fared quite well during the downturn and would have survived. But he acquired his single family rentals with an eye toward continuing appreciation. Staggering appreciation.

Well, not an eye toward it. He was depending on it. Cash flow was a nice thing to have, but hey, his net worth was swelling like the national debt.

And so was his head (Rod’s own words).

Refinancing or selling properties was a critical part of Rod’s strategy.

Then the bubble burst. Values dropped by about 50%, he was underwater, and the banks were knocking on his door. Though Rod said his multifamily assets were still cash-flowing, his assets were cross-collateralized, and he lost everything.

Investing in multifamily assets for cash is perhaps the very best way to guarantee this won't happen to you. Still, history shows us that investing prudently, with reasonable loan-to-value debt, in a great location will protect your assets.

There’s one more strategy that will help ensure the safety of your real estate investments.

3. Cater to renters-by-necessity.

There is a difference between catering to “lifestyle” tenants and “renter-by-necessity” tenants. Most multifamily investors I know, including my firm, cater to the latter.

Lifestyle tenants are those who can afford to rent or buy. They are often the tenants renting the luxury high-dollar apartments with impressive amenities like specialized laundry services and on-site restaurants. (I’ve heard that some even serve semi-boneless ham.)

Real estate investor Clayton Morris recently spoke about his $3,900 per month New York apartment with a Whole Foods on the street level. He shopped and ate many of his meals without leaving his building. They also provided all laundry services and two pools—one indoor, another outdoor.

Rent-by-necessity tenants, also known as “workforce housing” tenants, often rent because that is their only option—or at least their best option.

Investors catering to this class will often target class B or C apartment communities. These assets often provide steady cash flow and predictable appreciation.

Check out this data from Yardi Matrix.

Source: Yardi Matrix

On a national level (all cities included), overall annual rents increased 2.8% through October 2017. Renter-by-necessity rates grew at a respectable 4.1% in that period. Lifestyle rents grew at only 1.7%, dragging the average down to the 2.8% increase reported.

Related: Rents Dip Below Inflation, Home Appreciation Slows: Are Markets Cooling Off?

Catering to either class is fine, as long as you know the differing risks involved.

Think about catering to lifestyle tenants. It typically involves new development. It can take a year or more to locate land, then two years or so to draw up plans, take bids, and get zoning approval. Then one or two more years to build, and another year or so to lease up.

A lot can happen in that time period. Not only will the economy change, but tenant preferences can shift a developer’s business plan.

Developers catering to lifestyle tenants typically win big—or lose their shirts. I used to enjoy that type of speculation, but I’m long past that now. That is a younger and/or richer man’s game.

Compare this to targeting renters-by-necessity. Think about it in terms of both the tenants and the asset.

The tenants in workforce housing are not depending on large bonuses, commissions, or tech firm liquidity events to afford their monthly rent. They don’t have options to scale up or down in amenities, location, or rent. They are often limited in where they can live and what they can pay.

But this stability, this predictability, gives workforce housing owner/investors an advantage over the luxury/lifestyle operator.

What about the asset itself? As a buyer of a generally stabilized class B multifamily asset, I’m not waiting on zoning, design, bids, or construction. I’m not betting on the latest trends or demands for amenities and style. The asset is typically occupied, with a steady stream of cash already being generated the day the buyer acquires it.

The buyer and his investors won’t typically see a 25% IRR. But they will be able to sleep at night knowing that they’ve invested in a stable, predictable asset with decades of solid demographics backing it up.

Downturn schmownturn. I, for one, have no plans to deviate from my course. Not in this market or any other.

What about you?

Hopefully you’re on a multifamily course that will prosper during good times and bad, too. Tell us what you plan to do differently if this multifamily softening turns into a downturn.

After graduating with an engineering degree and then an MBA from Ohio State, Paul entered the management development track at Ford Motor Company in Detroit. After five years, he departed to start a...
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    Andrew Syrios Residential Real Estate Investor from Kansas City, MO
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Good list, it’s especially important to look for cash flow in a cooling market
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Andrew. I read an article from CoStar today talking about a shift from Value-Add to buying workforce housing for straight up cash flow. Do you think the market in KC is cooling?
    Brian Grant Rental Property Investor from Lake Arrowhead, CA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Paul, Great article I especially like number 3. Thanks for this.
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Brian!
    Omar Khan Rental Property Investor from Dallas, TX
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Great article and congratulations on your latest deal. You’re adding major value to BP and helping us in seeing things from newer perspectives. Cash is king!
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Omar! I appreciate your encouragement, and look forward to talking with you again soon.
    Mark Spidell from Glenwood Springs, Colorado
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thank you so much for this article! I recently bought three duplexes all next to each other. I am trying to figure out the best way to start billing tenant for water. To add a new line / meter with the city I would have to add a line from the street, which is not in the budget at the moment. Is there a digital meter that you might recommend?
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Hi Mark, You are welcome. Yes, I would contact Mike Shoemaker at ION Energy Solutions and tell him I sent you. That’s who is installing our new system. We were actually able to get Freddie Mac to give us a discounted interest rate for doing a major green project, and ION’s system counted as that. The water savings (and metering) are a huge bonus for us.
    Mano Chidambaram Specialist from Pleasanton, CA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Great article as usual, Paul, with some data & real life examples to back up your claims. I love #3 especially
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Mano. I appreciate your encouragement. #3 was an eye-opener for me as I realized the power of it.
    Scott B. Rental Property Investor from Puyallup, WA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Great post! I am currently in the midde of your book and it is great as well! Thank you for sharing
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Scott! Let me know if you have any questions after reading it. And thank you for serving our country.
    Rick Grubbs Rental Property Investor from Salisbury, NC
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Hi Paul, I just realized you are the author of the book I am reading off of Kindle right now. I have exactly the same philosophy being an owner of several such properties and similar SFH’s in Salisbury NC. People always have to have a place to live, but they don’t have to have a nice place to live. I shoot for the lower end house in a good neighborhood or the 20 year old apartment in a good section of town with a current owner ready to retire. We have been able to use this strategy with God’s blessing to raise our 12 kids. Thanks for getting the message out and for your excellent book!
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Rick, Wow, that is awesome! So are you saying that you’ve used the profits to provide income for your family through 12 kids? Are any of them getting into the business as well? I pray for God’s continued blessing in your life.
    Tom Donnelly Rental Property Investor from San Diego, CA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Paul, I’ve really enjoyed your last two articles, thanks for sharing with the BP community. As an investor experiencing only one part of the cycle, these articles keep our heads where they need to be!
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Tom. Thank you. I’m kind of wondering if this bull market will continue with all the optimism and capital flow post-Tax Reform Bill. It would be nice to see things get back to “normal” for us buyers.
    Mitchell Westmoreland Investor from Wimberley, TX
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Wonderful article. Thanks for the great info. And props on the ham reference!
    Mitchell Westmoreland Investor from Wimberley, TX
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Btw, I just bought your book.
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Mitchell! Let me know if you have questions or want to chat after reviewing the book.
    Phil M. Developer from Staten Island, New York
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Good read. Important to dwell upon these strategies going forward.
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thank you, Phil.
    Naveen Vavilala Real Estate Agent from Fairfax, Virginia
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Paul, A Great article, and good insights.
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Naveen. Happy New Year!
    Pavan Sandhu Developer from Sacramento, CA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Love your work Paul! Thank you for sharing your wisdom.
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Pavan. Thanks so much! I’m glad to hear the encouragement.
    Joey Slaughter Real Estate Investor from Danville, Virginia
    Replied over 2 years ago
    My biggest takeaway was the impact of the value add move and how that ROI for improvement improved the worth of the asset. Your buddy Brian Robbins explained that in his book and thanks for reinforcing that. Great info! Thanks.
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Joey. That was quite a revelation for me when I learned about this business. I’m glad to hear your liked Brian’s DONE! book.
    Jeff Hug from St Peters, MO
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Great article. My favorite was point number 1. Nice job mentioning the huge increase in value and giving an overview of how that happens with cap rate.
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks a lot, Jeff! It always amazes me, too.
    Bryan Tinajero Real Estate Agent from St. Paul, MN
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Hi Paul, I love all your articles regarding why multi-family homes are solid investments. I truly believe the same after analyzing and reading books and getting my first duplex. Any suggestions on how someone would make their SECOND big purchase in multi-family with others money or bank options? Thanks!
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Bryan Thanks for the encouragement! That is tough to answer without a little more info on your story. Tell me more about the situation, size, capital available, etc. I will be happy to weigh in. Thanks again, Bryan.
    Frank Donaldson
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thank you for your useful advice particularly as to the type of tenant to consider. With entitlements in hand, I plan to build later this year a dozen four plexes, (modular construction) or six-plexes on ground leased land (75 years). They will be leased out (pre-leased most likely) to a thirsty market. I plan to convey them out to an owner-occupant(sub-lessee in my case) or to a passive investor. Any thoughts as to which building size is more investor appealing?
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Frank, Thanks for writing. I am not sure what the optimal size is. Seems that duplexes up to fourplexes would be ideal for house-hackers who would acquire them on lease-purchase basis. If you are close to starting these, maybe you should go ahead and advertise duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes on Craigslist and through a local realtor (if possible), and see which ones give you the most response (if any). Maybe you’d get an idea this way. You could also ask a mortgage person for advice as well. Good luck!
    Alina Trukhina
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Paul, Thank you for your article! Completely agree with all three strategies. I’d make the last one as number one. By the virtue of buying B & C class apartment buildings, renovating them and offering these units for rent, you’re solving other people (aka tenants’) problem to find a place. So essentially contributing to the well-being of other folks’ needs. Great job!
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Alina. We are especially passionate about creating an amazing community for our tenants. We want them to have a memorable home, and we know that will contribute to our stability and profitability as owners as well.
    Tyler Watts Buy & Hold Investor from Shelby, North Carolina
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Solid article! Your points are in line with the companies I am invested with. Approaching with cash flow in mind rarely (if ever) goes wrong. Most of the value add we are seeing seems to be from the management side, like you said. The property has the potential, the owners just don’t have the drive to run it like a business. Enjoyed reading it and good luck!
    Paul Moore Investor from Lynchburg, VA
    Replied over 2 years ago
    Thanks Tyler. The more I learn, the more I am sold on “cash as king.”