Florida Leads The Nation. . .For All The Wrong Reasons

Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes

10mo

I challenge your data and your conclusions. Please clarify.

To start, I just don't believe your data. As of the end of October, ALN reports Tallahassee FL vacancy at 9% and Jacksonville at 13% (not 4.1%). Those markets are a bit more challenged. A quick search shows Fort Lauderdale at 8%, Miami at 3.5%, and Orlando at 7%, which are healthy levels. What is your source?

Also, when did 4% vacancy become high? There are plenty of markets with 10%+ vacancy right now. Most apartment owners would be thrilled with 4%. If you can't operate a property profitably with 4% vacancy, you just shouldn't be in the business.

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Michael Carbonare

OP

Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 917 posts · 607 votes

10mo

Parcl Labs provides real estate analytics. The specific article is here.

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Chris Grenzig

Property Manager · Orlando, FL · Member since 2016 · 479 posts · 277 votes

10mo

Quote from @Michael Carbonare:

𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐅𝐑 𝐕𝐚𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬
The newest numbers show a clear trend: Florida’s rental markets are under real stress.

𝐒𝐢𝐱 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭-𝐯𝐚𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚:

Punta Gorda, 5.07%
Cape Coral–Fort Myers, 5.06%
Homosassa Springs, 4.66%
North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton, 4.29%
Naples–Marco Island, 4.29%
Jacksonville, 4.11%

Homes that historically rented quickly are now sitting vacant 2–3x longer than normal.
That’s a structural signal, not a seasonal blip.

𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬:

Atlanta, 4.17%
Macon, GA, 4.12%
Spartanburg, SC, 4.12%

Affordability ceilings are getting hit. Tenant absorption is slowing. Operators are feeling it.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬
Vacancies in the 4–5% range equal real revenue loss, especially with elevated operating costs. This data confirms a broader shift:
Pandemic migration has fully cooled.
Supply growth in Sun Belt markets is outrunning demand.

𝐎𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐝𝐞: rent concessions, increased marketing, or selective disposition.
𝐆𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬: motivated sellers, flexible terms, and creative deal structures.

If you’re new to real estate and have been watching and waiting, this is one of the best opportunities to learn how creative investing actually works. There are solid deals out there.

@Michael Carbonare Checked the links you sent and this seems inaccurate. Jacksonville vacancy is not at 4% it's probably in the 8-12% range. 4% vacancy would be historically very low and would be amazing. I don't have anything at my fingertips to directly dispute this, but I've been investing in Jacksonville multifamily since 2016 and whener we'd look at multifamily and had reports from commercial brokerages and reports, vacancy was 5-10%, and it definitely increased over 10% in 2023 and 2024, my gut says 2025 is roughly around 8-12%.

1 Reply

Adam BartomeoBusiness Member

Real Estate Broker · Cape Coral, FL · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes

10mo

The general idea of this post is 100% CORRECT! Florida houses are on sale!!!

Yes, the data is probably off by a good bit - my data shows that Cape Coral is closer to 15% and I would guess that Punta Gorda and North Port are about the same.

It is a fantastic time to buy in SWFL! Deals are everywhere and everything is on sale. In another 6 - 18 months there will be a big shift here. Put your money where your mouth is... I have bought 12 houses in 4 months and plan on continuing that trend. Not all of the numbers work right now but we are positioning ourselves for the near future.

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Michael Carbonare

OP

Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 917 posts · 607 votes

10mo

@Adam Bartomeo Adam, you're taking an optimistic view of SW Florida doing a 180 back to a seller's market? Interesting. What would you say will be the driving force to turn that market around?

2 Reply

Adam BartomeoBusiness Member

Real Estate Broker · Cape Coral, FL · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes

10mo

@Michael Carbonare First, the market always comes back, it is just a matter of when. Second, Florida is not less desirable from the view of buyers wanting to live here. They are still coming and still want to come. Second, nationally, interest rates are dropping, jobs are being created, and America is on an upswing. This will allow folks to sell their homes and relocate. Third, not having property tax will be a game changer. It will trigger a tsunami of wealth transfer from other states. No income tax, no property tax... Buyers from other states will come. Tenants that have been on the side lines will now be able to afford houses. With that comes a host of opportunities for health care, businesses, entrepreneurs, etc.

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
9mo
Quote from @Adam Bartomeo:

@Michael Carbonare First, the market always comes back, it is just a matter of when. Second, Florida is not less desirable from the view of buyers wanting to live here. They are still coming and still want to come. Second, nationally, interest rates are dropping, jobs are being created, and America is on an upswing. This will allow folks to sell their homes and relocate. Third, not having property tax will be a game changer. It will trigger a tsunami of wealth transfer from other states. No income tax, no property tax... Buyers from other states will come. Tenants that have been on the side lines will now be able to afford houses. With that comes a host of opportunities for health care, businesses, entrepreneurs, etc.

I could be very wrong about this. but if there is no prop tax my bet would be that its only for owner occuppied not for investors and Investors tax's would rise to make up the difference. So it would have a huge negative affect on investors.. just my guess I dont know whats proposed other than the headlines.
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Michael GormanBusiness Member

Real Estate Agent · Punta Gorda Florida · Member since 2025 · 22 posts · 9 votes

10mo

Adam makes a lot of good points here (he usually does). My only concern about the property tax proposals in FL now would be the potential for further distortion of which properties are going to be taxed. There should be protections from the non-homesteaded cap which limits the assessed value to 10% per year.

So ultimately need to see how that plays out, and his first two points are right on. Florida has a lot of great things going for it fundamentally. We had such a rapid growth in volume and equity during covid, the current period of downturn was probably unavoidable. Agree we are in a strong buyers market for long-term value.

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Nick C.

Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes

10mo

My first thought reading this was 4 - 5% vacancy sounds pretty good. I don't think this data confirms anything you're claiming.

As long as winters up north are cold the migration south will continue.

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Lesley Resnick

Real Estate Agent · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

9mo

I love the the conversation, very different than, "what color LVP should I use…"

I frankly don't care what the number are in any particular month. In fact, they are close to useless. This is a long game. The value starts in understanding the trend. Any individual month is susceptible manipulation or to short term events, (Covid, Gov Closing).

There are also some qualitative facts that effect all real-estate. There is a mass migration to the South East from the North East and West Coast. Not a political statement just, common sense. If living in NJ, highest property tax in the country, keeps you from qualifying for a mortgage, then it is time to look elsewhere.

Not a political statement, but NYC is about to change in ways that are unsustainable. Unlike the US Gov, they can't just print money and devalue the currency to cover spending.

I cant speak for the rest of the south, but Florida is going to continue to be one of the more affordable states. South Florida is skyrocketing for the reasons I listed above. There are a lot more cities in Florida than just Miami. The state still has huge tracks of land that are yet to be developed in places no one has heard of.

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Kevin S.

Member since 2024 · 400 posts · 240 votes

6mo

I thought factoring 5% vacancy was the standard metric for any real estate investor? Am I wrong?

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Florida Leads The Nation. . .For All The Wrong Reasons

Florida Leads The Nation. . .For All The Wrong Reasons

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