Florida Leads The Nation. . .For All The Wrong Reasons

[Michael Carbonare]

𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐅𝐑 𝐕𝐚𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬
The newest numbers show a clear trend: Florida’s rental markets are under real stress.

𝐒𝐢𝐱 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭-𝐯𝐚𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚:

Punta Gorda, 5.07%
Cape Coral–Fort Myers, 5.06%
Homosassa Springs, 4.66%
North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton, 4.29%
Naples–Marco Island, 4.29%
Jacksonville, 4.11%

Homes that historically rented quickly are now sitting vacant 2–3x longer than normal.
That’s a structural signal, not a seasonal blip.

𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬:

Atlanta, 4.17%
Macon, GA, 4.12%
Spartanburg, SC, 4.12%

Affordability ceilings are getting hit. Tenant absorption is slowing. Operators are feeling it.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬
Vacancies in the 4–5% range equal real revenue loss, especially with elevated operating costs. This data confirms a broader shift:
Pandemic migration has fully cooled.
Supply growth in Sun Belt markets is outrunning demand.

𝐎𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐝𝐞: rent concessions, increased marketing, or selective disposition.
𝐆𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬: motivated sellers, flexible terms, and creative deal structures.

If you’re new to real estate and have been watching and waiting, this is one of the best opportunities to learn how creative investing actually works. There are solid deals out there.

[Greg Scott]

I challenge your data and your conclusions.  Please clarify.

To start, I just don't believe your data.  As of the end of October, ALN reports Tallahassee FL vacancy at 9% and Jacksonville at 13% (not 4.1%).  Those markets are a bit more challenged. A quick search shows Fort Lauderdale at 8%, Miami at 3.5%, and Orlando at 7%, which are healthy levels.  What is your source?

Also, when did 4% vacancy become high? There are plenty of markets with 10%+ vacancy right now. Most apartment owners would be thrilled with 4%. If you can't operate a property profitably with 4% vacancy, you just shouldn't be in the business.