Not Believing BP's Rental Calculator

Not Believing BP's Rental Calculator

Investor · Medford, MA · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 27 votes

So I am getting pretty frustrated here. Every property of the 20-30 I have looked at has been bad deals.

For example check out MLS number: 72154014. It's a property I would be interested in buying, but at the price it's listed at, there is no way. Even if I lower the price 20k it still will be a negative cash flow each month.

I put 1500 for closing costs, 5% interest.  5% vacancy, 5% repairs and maintenance, 5% capex and 8% property managment fee.

I get that @Brandon Turner in his podcasts says, "find the price that makes it work" but the Boston market is very hot, and while this is Nashua NH, many many people buy in NH and commute to Boston area jobs every day.  People aren't lowering their prices 20,30 or 40k.  They are getting offers over asking price and bidding wars occur.  Now, this might not be happening in Southern NH and Northern MA, but inside of I-495 it's happening all the time.

So am I doing something wrong here?  Are my expense numbers correct, too low, or not high enough?

Seems like I am spinning my wheels with this ****.

What makes it even more frustrating is I have a mentor who is claiming some of these properties are home runs (guy owns 300 doors and knows what he is talking about) but he does quick numbers like Cap rates, Gross Income Multiplier, and quick 35% "extremely high" overhead before P&I.  He's saying he'll go in on the deal to prove to me it's a good deal, but yet the BP calculator is saying the exact opposite of what a guy who makes a **** ton of money per month is saying.  So, as you can tell I am very frustrated and starting not to believe in this BP calculator.  

Someone show me the error of my ways.

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Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
9y
The easiest way I've found to quickly determine if a property makes sense is to not pay more than 100x it's monthly rent. Brings in $2,600/month? I'll pay max 260k But that 100x monthly is if I like the property and location. If the property needs work or is a bad area I adjust. For example I just bought a property 6-7 miles from my "location I like" but paid $6m for $120k/month of rent roll.
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  • Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2017 · 791 posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    What's the total rent? Post your numbers here for better feedback. 

    You can put whatever numbers you want in a calculator. What matters is that you put the right numbers in! 

    "If you torture data/numbers long enough they'll tell you whatever you want them to."

  • Investor · Medford, MA · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 27 votes
    9y

    My apologies.

    Total rent per month is 2600 and taxes are 5k a year

  • Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2017 · 791 posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    Ok, so 3 units, 4 beds, $2600. Let's call it $1000, $800, $800 for the respective units. 

    25% down on $340k = $255k financed

    $255k @ 5%/20yr = $1680

    .

    50% expenses = $1300 expenses & $1300 NOI.

    Cash Flow = -$380 per month

    .

    45% expenses = $1430 NOI

    Cash Flow = -$230 per month

    .

    40% expenses = $1560 NOI

    Cash Flow = -$120 per month

    .

    I find it impossible to believe at those rental rates 35% is "extremely high", especially with $5k in property taxes. But even at 35% you're at $1690 NOI and finally cash flow positive a whopping $10 at a 5%/20yr mortgage. I would be very curious to see how that guy analyzes this deal. I wouldn't touch it near their asking. There's a reason it's been on the market for 4 months.

  • Investor · Medford, MA · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 27 votes
    9y

    BTW listened to your podcast. Side bar, but how the hell did you get banks to give you an unsecured LOC??

    What do you usually put in (percentage wise) for expenses on BP calc?  40% total (meaning 10% each?) 

  • Investor · Medford, MA · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 27 votes
    9y

    Also, the one he was talking about with 35% financing was this MLS #72215708 81 Bellevue Avenue Haverhill MA. We like it cause it's 4 units of 2/1's.

    Rent is 3350/month taxes $4200/year. He's saying this is a GRM of 8.7. Listing is at 375k but we were doing calculations at 350k.

    I guess maybe the prices are just too high....

  • Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2017 · 791 posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Ryan M.:

    BTW listened to your podcast. Side bar, but how the hell did you get banks to give you an unsecured LOC??

    What do you usually put in (percentage wise) for expenses on BP calc?  40% total (meaning 10% each?) 

    As far as LOCs; I asked! 

    I don't use their calculator. Not because I don't trust it, but because I've always just done my own analysis since I started. At the beginning I ran full analysis on everything, line itemizing out every expense. Since then I've gotten familiar with my area and recognized average expense ratios for different properties based on conditions, level of finishes, and rental rates. Nearly everything I have ranges in the 45-55% expense ratio depending on the property. 

    At this point I just look at the property and apply the appropriate total ratio. On a large portfolio I did last year, I factored 55%. I received 3 years P&L's for each of the 80 units and compiled them in excel. It came to 54.5%. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Manchester, NH · Member since 2014 · 630 posts · 420 votes
    9y

    Hi @Ryan M.!  So I can definitely understand the frustration with searching deal after deal and seeming to come up with numbers that don't work... but you know what?  That's okay!  Its better to wait until you find the right deal that DOES have numbers that work.  And you need to trust that your numbers are right.  I'm happy to discuss further on how you analyze deals and what criteria you plug in, but take the following report for example:

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/calculators/shared/1...

    This is a link to an actual report (with the property address removed) that I have run for a client on a deal that MAKES MONEY.  The property is located in Manchester, NH and crunching the numbers yielded an 8 cap after factoring in vacancy at 5% (though the average across the state runs at less than 2%, and in properties we manage at 3%), 5% for repairs & maintenance, 5% for future capital expenditures, and 10% for hiring a property management firm.  

    The deals are out there, you just have to hunt them down.  The best deals aren't always sold on the open market... sometimes it takes pounding the phones and calling every real estate agent in town trying to find out about that pocket listing and convincing them that you can close on it, or by sending out mailers to every multifamily owner in a 5 mile radius trying to find a burnout landlord looking to sell.  Don't settle for a property that doesn't make you money, wait until you find one that does!

  • Investor · Medford, MA · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 27 votes
    9y

    Very good advice.  Sent you a PM.

  • Dayton, OH · Member since 2017 · 6 posts · 0 votes
    9y

    im having the same exact problem with the market in dayton, ohio. every building im looking at is only cash flowing 200-300 dollars...which I hear it should be at a minimum PER UNIT, so definitely not enough to consider purchasing. very frustrating, indeed.

  • Darrin CareyPro Member
    Lender · Dayton, OH · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 705 votes
    9y

    @Amanda K.  Typical cashflow on a C apartment with financing seems to be about $100 per unit in our market. Higher priced markets and properties can return a higher number per unit.

    Specifically in Dayton, you can cashflow $200-300 per door, ONLY IF you pay all Cash. Otherwise, it just isn't going to happen on lower to mid-range properties (short of a miracle).

    A typical small C class multi sells for 15-25k per door depending on condition and location. Rents - expenses - reserves - mortgage payment, and about $100 per door is left. 

    More important than the cashflow per unit, is the cashflow per money invested or cashflow for the purchase price. ROI, Cap rates, cash on cash return are all better measures of the investment than the per unit cashflow.

  • Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    9y
    The easiest way I've found to quickly determine if a property makes sense is to not pay more than 100x it's monthly rent. Brings in $2,600/month? I'll pay max 260k But that 100x monthly is if I like the property and location. If the property needs work or is a bad area I adjust. For example I just bought a property 6-7 miles from my "location I like" but paid $6m for $120k/month of rent roll.
  • Rental Property Investor · St. Petersburg, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    9y
    I'm with Cody on this one. I make it easy on myself and don't even bother if it is less that 1% monthly rent to purchase price. Less than that the numbers rarely cash-flow, unless taxes are really low and the down payment is substancial.
  • Investor · Medford, MA · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 27 votes
    9y

    Great advice guys.  I didn't know about the 100x rule or the 1% rule.  Thanks a lot!

  • Nashua, NH · Member since 2017 · 8 posts · 0 votes
    9y

    That is way too much for that area of town, its ridden with drug use and violence. Right outside of that neighborhood is ok and crownhill is also a good rental. Theres a foreclosure on a duplex not sure bout details aside from its at 61 allds st. But a 2 bedroom in that neighborhood can run an easy 1100, 3 bedrooms 1350+.

  • Ozzy SmithPro Member
    Specialist · Dayton, OH · Member since 2014 · 352 posts · 265 votes
    9y

    @Amanda K.

    I'm going to echo what @Darrin Carey said... you have to take into consideration the prices we are paying locally compared to other parts of the the country like what @Ryan M. is dealing with.  We are not paying $350K to get 300/m cash flow.  We can hit those numbers all day long and only spend about $35K.  So if you would spend the same $350K as he is looking at you would have $3,000/m in cash flow.  There is a big difference there.  If you can't get excited about that check your pulse! If you can't find those numbers in Dayton you definitely are not looking... they are everywhere!

  • Investor · boxford, MA · Member since 2015 · 37 posts · 16 votes
    9y

    Ryan, I'm having the same problem with multi's in the Haverhill area and generally around MA and NH. The #s make you want to ignore planning for expensive and short cut the numbers to make the seem favorable. I've had an agent pushing me in that direction (Haverhill multis) for a while, but I haven't found a deal that makes sense, despite his claims of how great it is. The #s might seem good until you have to replace a water heater, a roof or repair leaks from ice dams (ahhh winter is coming). Once you take a few thousand dollar hit to your monthly cash flow you'll wipe it out.

    I'm trying to think more creatively, like units I can get for cheaper because they're two beds, turn them into three maybe... units that are unlivable and need an upfront influx of cash to upgrade and get higher paying tenants in (though that cash counts against profits too). Frankly I'm still inclined to take the leap on the right place and try to minimize expenses, but I'm doing a lot of analysis still before deciding that as well as looking at other ways to spend my money. Don't really want to do out of state, so would my money go to better use in a flip, into commercial, etc.? Tough in our area with the market at such a high right now and risk of overpaying for stuff.

    the final thing i keep hearing on the podcasts is make low ball offers - can't hurt especially if somethings been sitting on the market for a few months. if its gone beyond 1 or 2 months they'll probably at least talk to you. a few of the big time podcast folks say if you're not embarrassed of your offer its probably too high, and we all know the old saying - you miss 100% of the shots you don't take ;)

  • Investor · Medford, MA · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 27 votes
    9y

    @Dean Bokousky While I agree to an extent that Haverhill has its issues.  There are crimes and drugs, and murder in the town, I am optimistic and speculating that towns like Methuen and Haverhill will develop in the next 10 years much like Somerville and Cambridge did.   Somerville used to be a DUMP 20 years ago that parents didn't want anything to do with it.  Now it is super expensive to live there (I did and needed to move to Medford to buy a place I could afford).  Haverhill has been putting money into their town, reinvesting in the downtown area and schools are improving.  Also, people can't afford to live not only inside 95 loop but also the 495 loop.  So what towns are people who make a moderate income going to live?  Lowell, Haverhill, Framingham ect. - or at least that's my guess.

    @Matt Lefebvre made good points to me in PM that his area around Manchester has great neighborhoods and bad ones, and Haverhill is no different.   

    @Becky C. I do appreciate you sharing your concerns and frustrations, it validates what I am feeling and seeing.  I am not the only one have troubles believing the numbers I am seeing, but the calculator is right I guess and the numbers are just too inflated at the moment.

  • Broker / Investor · Tewksbury, MA · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 351 votes
    9y

    @Ryan M. I can see money from the boston area to lowell methuen and haverhill as well as lynn. Demand is too high in Boston. Personally I think Lowell is a great town to invest in for a long term hold. 

    The deals are scarce right now because most of the distressed properties have been picked up and sellers know inventory is low. 

    I am a broker that specializes in property north of boston to manchester NH. If you ever have a question about rents let me know. 

    Like other investors have mentioned you should be getting 200 to 300 a door here in Massachusetts for cash flow.

  • Investor · Spokane, WA · Member since 2014 · 733 posts · 155 votes
    9y
    Ryan McEniff ur market might be better for flips vs buying rentals
  • Investor · boxford, MA · Member since 2015 · 37 posts · 16 votes
    9y

    @Ryan M. I also just listed to show #215 with @Ricky Beliveau, he was investing in Boston multis from like 2010-2015ish, they doubled in value and have 0% vacancy, but now the #s don't make sense so he's doing condo conversions and picking up his buy and holds down in providence, RI. That offered some more confirmation for me too.

    Not that everyone has the same goals, some might be willing to accept close to even or no return or are confident they can keep the maintenance and capital investment #s low... as long as they're going to get that long term equity pay down... rental market will always be strong here.

    I did just notice an a 1%ish rule in a foreclosed andover small multi family, but with as-is foreclosed not always being so straight forward there's more work with the condition of the property, getting the prior-owner out if they're still occupying, and possible surprise liens. So for me maybe a bit much to take on (in MA), but not everyone.

  • Rental Property Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2017 · 298 posts · 232 votes
    9y
    @Ryan McEniff we are having the same problem in Charlotte, NC. Deals flying off the market in a few days at most, often with multiple offers and over list. List prices simply will not cash flow. Only 2 options, off market or, like you said, look for smaller markets just outside of that area that have 10-20 yr potential.
  • Real Estate Agent · Boston, MA · Member since 2015 · 319 posts · 80 votes
    9y

    You just simply have to shift your focus to finding something off market. I haven't bothered looking on the MLS for quite some time..

  • Weymouth, MA · Member since 2017 · 10 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    @Ryan M. and everyone else.  Thank you for posting the same exact question that I have been battling.  I know the market is reaching it's peak so hopefully the continual analysis of deals good or bad will just give me more experience for when that great deal comes along.  I like to 100x rule that @Cody L. posted about.  Might have to add that to the analysis.  Thanks all for the great insight and different perspectives.

  • Lender · Haverhill, MA · Member since 2016 · 60 posts · 21 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Ryan M.:

    BTW listened to your podcast. Side bar, but how the hell did you get banks to give you an unsecured LOC??

    What do you usually put in (percentage wise) for expenses on BP calc?  40% total (meaning 10% each?) 

    Ryan,

    We have unsecured LOC's they are easy to obtain if you have good credit. It's a joke how easy it is to get credit right now as that is the number one source of income for banks.

    Always with my best,

    Christopher Richardson

  • Lender · Haverhill, MA · Member since 2016 · 60 posts · 21 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Ryan M.:

    Also, the one he was talking about with 35% financing was this MLS #72215708 81 Bellevue Avenue Haverhill MA. We like it cause it's 4 units of 2/1's.

    Rent is 3350/month taxes $4200/year. He's saying this is a GRM of 8.7. Listing is at 375k but we were doing calculations at 350k.

    I guess maybe the prices are just too high....

    Ryan,

    Not sure with the issue your having in Haverhill, my client's and I come across great deals all the time. Last month we closed on a 2 family for 225k we now have renting at 3k with market rents 400 above that there's even room to grow. Its was an easy to find and profitable deal. We used unsecured personal LOC's, infinite banking for the down payment, and I brokered our us a no income loan on the rest, so we have infinite RIO. The real effect would be if we do a cashout refi in 6 months because it's worth more.

    Always with my best,

    Christopher Richardson

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