Comparing Original Analysis vs First Year Cashflow Results!

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I have a case of analysis paralysis in some ways. Many people have told me I over project numbers and say I'm too worried. Well, they were right. I thought this would help people (noobs) who feel this way. My rental has experienced over 1 year of occupancy, and 1 turn over so let's compare.

I bought it below market value and did some minor rehab work. The appraisal is old, and is probably now in the low $140k's. This was bought roughly 1.5 years ago. EQUITY GAIN!

ANALYSIS

Purchase Price$112,000
Rent$1,450
Appraised Value$134,000
Downpayment + Closing $27,361
Rehab$9,095
Total Investment$36,456
Vacancy$120.83
Mortgage Payment$407.11
Taxes$257.50
Insurance$47.00
Maintenance$50
Future Cap-Ex$166
PM$145
Lease Fee$41.67
Total Monthly Expenses$1,235
Monthly Net Cash Flow$214.89

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REAL LIFE NUMBERS

Turn over cost was the biggest expense. $551.71. This shouldn't be an issue going forward though. They are more of repair items (new door locks, update due to code on smoke alarm, etc). Also, given the area tenants should stay longer than a year. This was my first go at self managing/finding a tenant and I didn't do a good job. I have a PM now that's great to handle this.

Vacancy$120.83
Mortgage Payment$407.11
Taxes$257.50
Insurance$47.00
Maintenance$99
Future Cap-Ex$166
PM$145
Lease Fee$41.67
Total Monthly Expenses$1,284
Monthly Net Cash Flow$166.00

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Analysis $214/m. Reality $166/m. With a tenant for one year and turn over. Also, nice appreciation. Not bad. This is not a C-class area either. SFH in a B-Class neighborhood with good schools in the suburbs.

The Cap-Ex is an estimation. I broke down each item throughout the life of the mortgage. However my mindset is changing on how to budget for this. Instead I may have $5k-$10k in savings set aside for reserves and when CapEx comes up I can do a cash out refi due to the appreciation and still cash flow. Anyone doing this method for CapEx?

Thanks to @Marcus Auerbach for helping me out!

Updated about 3 years ago

I had an error. Real Life net cash flow was $227.80 (with CapEx budget).