Would you BRRRR for $78/mo cash flow?

Would you BRRRR for $78/mo cash flow?

Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2018 · 85 posts · 29 votes

Hello everyone!

I have an opportunity to potentially do a BRRRR deal where the current owner of the property funds the whole rehab (refresh 2 bathrooms and a kitchen) and I pay him back when I do a cash out refi.

After I pay back the current owner/lender, I'll be left with potentially $5,500 cash in my pocket and the monthly cash flow will be $78/month. Would you do this deal?

This would be my first rental property and a great learning opportunity. I wouldn't have to pay anything out of pocket during the process.

The $78/month takes into consideration a 30yr mortgage at 5% interest rate, 18% of rent set aside for vacancy, maintenance, and CapEx, property taxes, and $65/month in insurance.

I haven't fully assessed this, but I feel rent may be able to be raised. Hasn't been raised in over 6 years. But at a conservative estimate, $78 isn't a whole lot.....but it would get a deal under my belt as a learning opportunity.

What do yo think?

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Member since 2019 · 36 posts · 48 votes
7y
Hey Nicholas, How did you arrive at 18% for all those expenses? The standard is usually 7% for repairs and maintenance, 7% for CapEx (usually you can get away with 5% on a BRRRR if you're doing many big ticket items like roof, water heater, etc, but since you only mentioned bathroom and kitchen, I'd keep it at 7% to be conservative), vacancy from 8-10%. Property taxes aren't usually estimated as a percent. You can have your realtor calculate your likely property taxes after the final assessed value of the property. In my area (Wisconsin) if you purchase a $100K house, you're looking at around $1.5K a year in property taxes, $3.5K per year for a $200K property and so forth. You'll want to get a solid grasp on this number since it will be a big expense. You'll also need to consider what utilities the landlord (you) will be paying for. In some areas, its common for the landlord will be stuck paying for water and sewer, and garbage. So you need to factor that into your analysis if that's the case for your area. In some areas, you might be able to get away with sticking the tenant with all those utilities, just depends on the market. A good common rule of thumb is that 50% of your rental income will go to expenses, NOT including mortgage expenses. So if you're only at 18%, you might be significantly low balling your estimated expenses. But when you verify all your numbers and are still looking at $78/month of cash flow, for a first deal that's pretty good, if it's a reasonable mortgage. I wouldn't be accepting $78/month of cash flow on a property with a mortgage of $300K, but around $100K is good. Hope this helped and good luck! - Lucas Duce
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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Anthony Wick:

    @Joe P.

    Well, what he really has is $5,500 cash for reserves, $78 or more cash flow, and a rehabbed house. Unless the rehab is really bad, I’d definitely say the repairs will be smaller to start off ownership. Now, I certainly would not do this deal with a down payment of my own money. But for a free deal, it seems like a solid start to investing. Let’s not forget, when he refinances he immediately has 25% equity. Many start with 3.5% fha equity. 

    Anthony this was the same thinking that sunk thousands upon thousands of landlords doing this exact BRRRR cash back minimal cash flow.

    the cash back went to buy a jet ski not reserves  LOL..  and as much as anything your tieing up a loan slot to not even make 1k a year. And if its an area that does not go up at all like much of the mid west whats the point.. ?  seems to me risk /reward is not there.. I would think one might want to use their very valuable 1 to 4 mortgage slot on a property that either will cash flow much better or a 2 or 4 unit so you can build doors. 

  • Michael BartleyPro Member
    Real Estate Agent · Radcliff, KY · Member since 2015 · 24 posts · 10 votes
    7y

    Based off of what you detailed, I would do it. You have the asset, profit, and refi down the line. The cash flow each month isn’t huge, but its still cash flow after you’ve set aside all the funds for repairs and things. 

  • Specialist · Memphis, TN · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    7y

    It seems only people who haven't watched hundreds of investors lose fortunes doing this think it's a good idea..............

  • Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2017 · 439 posts · 578 votes
    7y

    Do the deal. Be ready to come out of pocket here and there. Don’t take that additional 5.5k. (It prob won’t be there after you go over on your rehab budget). Realize that in 20+ years, when the house has been (mostly) paid off by the tenants, rent has gone up and appreciation has come into play is when you’ll really realize the value/potential. If you hold it for the long term, you’ll win. This fits into my strategy. Might not work for everyone though.

  • Rental Property Investor · Ankeny, IA · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    7y

    @Jay Hinrichs

    Well......but you’re thinking from a position of decades of success. Is a guy with nothing worried about a loan slot? He’s looking at catching dinner for tonight, and you’re over there hosting “The Deadliest Catch”.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Anthony Wick:

    @Jay Hinrichs

    Well......but you’re thinking from a position of decades of success. Is a guy with nothing worried about a loan slot? He’s looking at catching dinner for tonight, and you’re over there hosting “The Deadliest Catch”. 

    well to be fair the pre 08 investors who found this model to be fatal did not have the benefit of all the BP landlords wisdom to guide them. I think most thought no way could the cash flow not come in.. so the refi excess proceeds got spent every where but for reserves..

  • Chesterfield, MO · Member since 2018 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    Do it.  Best thing you can do is get started.  It's amazing how other properties seem to follow once you do your first deal.  Basically your earning $78 a month for a fantastic education that is worth so much more!  Jump in.

  • Martin NealPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 293 posts · 383 votes
    7y

    @Nicholas Morgan I would need to see the numbers and take into consideration the neighborhood. Class B or higher, it’s a no brainer, Class C I would have to think hard on and triple check all the numbers. Class D, no.

  • Rental Property Investor · Ankeny, IA · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    7y

    @Jay Hinrichs

    Yes. And yes. As usual, you definitely have wise words to share with people that should listen. And I always listen to your words. Hopefully we all listen, and we all make a lot of money.

  • Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2015 · 242 posts · 182 votes
    7y

    @Jaron Walling. He’ll have $38K of net worth on paper that might generate $78 per month. If you like that return and you’re looking to buy I have several properties for you.

    His research was top notch. Other than not knowing market rents and using bad estimates of expenses, it was outstanding.

  • Member since 2019 · 2 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    @Nicholas Morgan if you don’t respond, it depends you are doing it wrong, that’s not enough info to make educated guess of is that a good return.

  • Member since 2019 · 2 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    @Nicholas Morgan you sound scared, wanting some one else to put up the money for a property, do the homework and raise OPM.

  • Belfast, Northern Ireland · Member since 2018 · 128 posts · 56 votes
    7y

    @Nicholas Morgan I would definitely do this deal. $78 is significantly better than nothing and you couldn’t put a price on the knowledge you would gain from the deal.

  • Rental Property Investor · Fort Worth, TX · Member since 2019 · 14 posts · 1 vote
    7y

    @Nicholas Morgan

    YES do it!

    These owner financing deals are tough to come by. Just be sure everything is in writing and then after the refi, I would attempt to raise the rent based on the rehab.

    Even if you don’t raise the rent. Say you even lose $78 a month, you’re still better off because you didn’t put any of your own money down to acquire the property and you instantly have equity.

    A few things I would be sure I knew where;

    1. How will you transfer the ownership of the property.

    2. Is there a prepayment penalty?

    3. Who will you use to refinance?

    4. Will you hire the work done on the house or will you do the repairs yourself?

    Sounds like a sweet deal.

    If you don’t do it, send it my way!

  • Member since 2016 · 1 post · 0 votes
    7y

    @Nicholas Morgan Eric Miles from Chicago, yes, rents will continue to increase especially in Chicago!

  • Mckinney, TX · Member since 2019 · 14 posts · 1 vote
    7y

    @Nicholas Morgan Hey Nicholas, I’m a newbie myself so please take my response with a grain of salt, but I would would also assess two items per your post.

    1. If you are doing a remodel as you mentioned then you should certainly be able to raise the rent (if even slightly). You mentioned that if hadn’t been raised in 6 years I believe and in my opinion if you do a mini rehab then you should be able to raise rents.

    2. Although you monthly cash flow may not be all that great, how will your property be doing as far as appreciation? You may solely focused on just monthly income, but I would also suggest looking at the appreciation possibilities this property may present for you.

    Again, please note that I am very new to REI, but these are just some thoughts I would also be thinking about if this was my deal on the table.

    Best of luck.

    Dustin K. Ray

  • Rental Property Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2017 · 23 posts · 19 votes
    7y

    You have gotten a lot of great advice. Some observations from a small-time Cincinnati guy: 

    - You allocate no money for property management. Even if you plan on managing yourself, you should still include management even if only at something like 8%. This is a real cost of your time and if you plan to scale, you want to build this in to your numbers so you can do that in the future. Some may disagree with me on this but this is something I learned as I've gone along. 

    - Your budget for capex and maintenance are too low, in my experience. You should add another 5%. Also, they are technically separate and you should setup a capex account just for those funds. 

    - You need to be cautious with your taxes. Hamilton County will be reassessing taxes next year and implementing the new rate in 2021. I believe my timeline is correct but someone else may correct me. This means that if your ARV is accurate and they see other properties in the area selling for that, your taxes will go up 15 months after you buy the property. For example, if the new market value is $130K they will assess at $45K in Ohio (35%). Depending on the tax district you are in you will pay around 85 mills give or take (depends on school/tax district). Therefore your taxes would be at $3,867 per year. Even if they only gave a market value of $100k and your local mill rate was 80 your taxes would still go up to $2,800. This is about double what you forecast. There is no guarantee they will assess you at this but Hamilton County is not stupid and with real estate values going through the roof you can bet the county is coming for their pound of flesh. As a matter of fact, we are coincidentally waiting until 2021 to buy our next property for personal reasons but this will also allow me to wait and see how the assessments shake out next year. I think it will have the combined effect of making rents go up slightly and real estate prices go down slightly because it's going bite into a bigger share of the monthly budget homeowners and landlords can afford. Just my .02.

    - What about water? In my experience the water in the Cincinnati Water Works district has to be in the owners name. Therefore this is an expense to you unless you can raise your rents about $50/mo (depends on tenant water usage obviously). 

    - Bottom line, I think you're paying too much for the property. You actually never state what your friend originally paid for the property but I suspect he paid about the right price, or maybe I overlooked that. From what I can see in the Cincinnati area, SFRs cannot cost your more than $80-90K in order to make money unless you're in a prime neighborhood like Oakley where you can command big time rents but you're only forecasting <$1,000. Of course there are exceptions and I'm sure people will jump on me but that is how I see the numbers. 

    Good luck to you. This is in no way trying to discourage you, quite the opposite. Just be very conservative with your numbers. Like Warren Buffet says, investing is a no-strike called game. You don't lose money for missing a few good investments therefore wait for your desired pitch. 

  • Investor · Winhall, VT · Member since 2016 · 106 posts · 44 votes
    7y

    The bottom line looks thin. I usually am looking for $150-$200 a door and I have a rainy day fund for each unit I hold(my cash, not borrowed). I do not recommend pulling out more than what is needed if you do pull the trigger. 

  • Developer · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Nicholas Morgan:

    Hey Everyone, 

    Thanks for the input! 

    I apologize for some of the confusion I caused. Let me clear some of this up....

    My friend has held this property for 8-10 years or so and it's been a good cash flowing rental for him. He bought it at the market drop back around 2010. He wants to sell this property and purchase a property closer to his primary residence. He's in no rush to sell, but willing to work with me for a win for both of us. We haven't ironed out all the details yet, but the arrangement may look something like this: 

    - Friend pays off remaining mortgage balance of $62k 

    - Friend deeds me the property for free 

    - Friend funds the rehab - he expects $15k - $3k for each bathroom remodel and 7k for kitchen and 2k for misc

    - ARV = 130k - potentially more. Non-updated properties nearly identical are selling for 130k right next door (cookie cutter house neighborhood)

    - My friend would get reimbursed for his mortgage payoff, the rehab loan, plus $15k (this number hasn't been officially determined yet, but 15k would be the upper end of what he gets)

    - I would get any remaining money from the cash out plus be left with the rental property. 

    - Should be a win-win: he offloads his property with no work and I get a rental for the work I do (all of it I'll do myself)

    Property numbers: 

    Mortgage balance: $62k

    ARV: 130k

    Cash out 75% = $97,500

    Expected Rehab: 15k

    Pay friend total of $92,000 = 62k(mortgage payoff) + 15k (rehab) + 15k (cash)

    Remainder for me: $5,500

    --------------------------

    Rental numbers: 

    - Current Rent: $995/month

    - Monthly Property Tax: $151 (from auditor's website)

    - Insurance: $65

    - Vacancy: 8% = $80

    - CapEx + Maintenance = 10% = $100

    - Mortgage (5% , 30yr) = $529

    Cash Flow = $70 (I was away from my spreadsheet when I posted initially, so I was off on cash flow value)

    -------------------------------

    Another option my friend is open to is flipping the property and just selling it after the work and splitting the profit 50/50. However, I think we'll both be hit with capital gains tax. But maybe that's a better way to go.

    Thanks everyone for the insight,

    Nicholas


     Nicholas,

    Amazing that a lot of people here on BP shot this deal down because of the $78/mo, or $70/mo cashflow.

    And this is why a lot of investors are not getting deals because they don't look beneath the surface.

    I would do this deal and before I explain why, let me just point out several things that shows you are being overly conservative with your numbers.

    1. You said the house is "worth" $130K but those houses are not updated. A $15K update might push the value up $30K - so maybe the house's ARV is $160K.

    2. You are assuming the rent to be only $995/month. In a lot of areas in Cincinnati, rents are actually increasing. 3. If you increase the value of the house to its real ARV (not FMV), you can also increase the rent. Unless this property is in the war zone, assuming it's a 3 bedroom house in a $160K neighborhood, I bet the rent in the area is closer to $1250 or even higher.

    4. If the house is worth $160K and your friend is willing to give it to you for $62K + $15K in his pocket or a total of $78K, if you follow the majority of cashflow investors here, you're walking away from $82K in equity.

    5. If the area is desirable, which I think it is, after you rehab it, another option is doing a lease with option to buy. The benefits are:

    a) Higher rent and higher cashflow - if market rent is $1200, you can push it to $1300
    b) Higher sales price - if value is $160K, you can sell it for $175K since the purchase is not until 1 or 2 years from now
    c) Lined up buyer and lower cost of selling - there's no 6% real estate commission you have to pay

    PM me and I can have my guy who is an expert on lease options contact you. 

    People are willing to walk away from $80K of profit because they think the cashflow is only $70/month. 

    But people don't look beneath the surface and just say "Nah, bad deal".

    If you're willing to walk away from this deal, I will pay you $5,000 to walk away from it and let me take over and make the $80K or more in profit ;)

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 62 posts · 46 votes
    7y

    @Austin Works I find rentometer can be very inaccurate. I like to find the avg by comparing on Craigslist and Zillow/ cozy rental as well.

  • Investor · Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2013 · 658 posts · 315 votes
    7y

    @Kalanie Tran  Check out Padmapper.com, it puts all the craigslist ads on a map so you can quickly see the relevant ones.

  • Oklahoma City · Member since 2016 · 27 posts · 7 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Jason D.:

    @Nicholas Morgan what is the current rent? You say you've set aside reserves of 18% but repairs arent cheaper based on rent. 18% of a $2000/mo rental should be plenty, 18% of a $750/mo rental is far too little.

    If you're reserved properly, I'd probably do the deal.

    That makes sense. %''s translate to wildly different dollar amounts depending on gross income. How do you usually figure Repairs & Maintenance and CapEx as you analyze deals? I've just been doing 7.5% each, but I can see the issue with that approach...

  • Rental Property Investor · St. Petersburg, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    7y

    @Daniel Hughes it depends on the age and expected lifespan of the major items. on average, with a fresh rehab, I'm reserving $75/mo for capex and $100/mo maintenance. For capex, I look at roof, HVAC, and water heater. Divide the replacement cost by the usable life, and then add 50% for things like siding, windows, driveway, etc....

  • Specialist · Memphis, TN · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    7y

    You're probably more confused than when you started asking but I think it's worth noting, most of the guys with the most experience are saying no. And none of us have a dog in this fight. So maybe look for a better deal?

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2018 · 85 posts · 29 votes
    7y

    Thanks for the insight everyone! It's great hearing all the perspectives. 

    To those who are against the deal, what would make it good? If rent was $1200/mo and I set aside 7% for maintenance, 7% for CapEx, 8% for Vacancy, and I only pulled out what I need to pay back the current owner the cash flow would be about $220/month. Do you think that this then would be a good deal? To me those numbers seem very good. I understand the concerns a lot have brought up about the cash flow being too low to weather any storms that will arise. Unfortunately I haven't yet got a good handle on the market rents for this area. I'v had some family stuff going on this weekend that took most of my time.

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