Where Did All the “It’s Okay to Overpay” Crowd Go?

Where Did All the “It’s Okay to Overpay” Crowd Go?

Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
Moderator
Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes

A few years ago the message was everywhere: it’s fine to stretch on price because appreciation will make up for it.

Many buyers did exactly that. Some purchased with seller financing with low down payments, which made the acquisition easier. The assumption was simple: lock up the property now, rents will rise, values will continue climbing, and the numbers will eventually work themselves out.

But a lot of markets have shifted since then.

What we are seeing in many cases is a different reality:

- Purchase prices have largely stalled in some areas

- Insurance costs have jumped significantly

- Property taxes have reset higher after sales

- Maintenance and labor costs are up

- Interest rates are much higher for anyone needing to refinance

    For buyers who entered deals with minimal equity and thin margins, that combination can create pressure quickly.

    Seller financing and low down payment structures can be useful tools, but they do not fix a property that was purchased at a price where the fundamentals never worked to begin with. If the deal only worked under the assumption that rents and values would keep climbing, the margin for error becomes very small once expenses start rising.

    This brings up a few questions for the community:

    1. Are you seeing properties bought during the peak struggle under rising operating costs?

    2. For those who bought with seller financing or very low down payments, how are those deals performing today?

    3. Has the increase in insurance, taxes, and maintenance changed how you evaluate acquisitions now?

    4. Are buyers seeing these properties on the market and being able to get them at a decent price?

      One of the lessons that seems to repeat every cycle is that creative financing can improve a deal, but it cannot turn a bad basis into a good one.

      7e investments53 Reviews
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      Most Popular Reply

      Bo SmithPro Member
      Hinton, WV · Member since 2026 · 1k+ posts · 373 votes
      6mo

      You nailed it. The assumption that appreciation cures everything was always flawed, but it got buried when deals were still working on the upside. Now that the math has to work day one, those overleveraged deals are showing cracks fast.

      I've seen this exact scenario in markets like Austin and Phoenix. Property bought at 2023 peak with seller financing, minimal equity, and now the owner's sitting there watching insurance jump 40%, taxes reset 30% higher, and cap rates that don't exist. The deal never worked on fundamentals--it only worked on hope.

      What matters now is acquisition price discipline. You can't fix a bad basis with creative terms. We're back to boring underwriting: does it cash flow now, without appreciation? If not, it's speculative leverage dressed up as investing. Are you seeing owners in your market actually lowering asking prices to reflect these cost realities, or are they holding and hoping the market corrects?

      See this reply in the discussion

      38 Replies

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      • Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
        6mo

        Where did they go, you ask? Simple. Bankruptcy court.


        Next question!

        • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
          Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
          6mo
          Quote from @John Clark:

          Where did they go, you ask? Simple. Bankruptcy court.


          Next question!


          NOD  or sherrif default  and those that wrapped first positions have created havoc for those poor folks who did not understand passing title without paying of a loan in your name was a poor idea if you covet your FICO
      • Drew SygitBusiness Member
        Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 9k+ votes
        6mo

        WHich is getting hit harder, LTR or STR?

        • Peter MckernanBusiness Member
          Residential Real Estate Agent · Irvine, CA · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
          6mo
          Quote from @Drew Sygit:

          WHich is getting hit harder, LTR or STR?


           STRs at lease what I see! The LTRs if they are bought right (not all of them do) but those are holding on.. The STRs are rough now. 

          The McKernan Group4.954 Reviews
        • Investor · NY · Member since 2026 · 121 posts · 42 votes
          6mo

          @Drew Sygit  LTR is always king

        • Don KonipolBusiness Member
          Investor · The Woodlands TX / Avon, CT · Member since 2009 · 6k+ posts · 10k+ votes
          6mo
          Quote from @Mendy J.:

          @Drew Sygit  LTR is always, king

          WHAT does that mean?  
          Private Mortgage Financing Partners, LLC
        • Investor · NY · Member since 2026 · 121 posts · 42 votes
          6mo

          @Don Konipol  meaning to say long-term rental there's much less risk involved no matter the environment people will always be looking for a place to live

        • Don KonipolBusiness Member
          Investor · The Woodlands TX / Avon, CT · Member since 2009 · 6k+ posts · 10k+ votes
          6mo
          Quote from @Mendy J.:

          @Don Konipol  meaning to say long-term rental there's much less risk involved no matter the environment people will always be looking for a place to live

          You’re probably right! 
          Private Mortgage Financing Partners, LLC
      • Ryan ThomsonBusiness Member
        Real Estate Agent · Colorado Springs, CO · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
        6mo

        There is a version of overpaying that has actual math behind it, worth separating from the speculation scenario you are describing.

        If you paid a 5% premium in 2023 because the seller had a 2.75% VA loan and you assumed it, you paid more for an asset that saves you $847/month vs today's 6.25% rate. That is $305K in savings over 30 years. The premium was justified by a calculable, contractually locked financial benefit. Not an assumption about future appreciation.

        The creative financing failures you are describing were deals where someone paid a speculative premium, hoping rent growth or price appreciation would eventually compensate for a basis that never worked from day one. The mechanism was entirely different: hope vs. locked-in rate arbitrage.

        Buyers who paid 3-5% over list in 2023-2024 to assume a 2.75-3.0% VA or FHA loan are doing fine. Their payment is still $700-900/month lower than anyone who bought the same property at market with a new 6.25% loan. The rate asset bailed them out of the premium.

        The lesson from the cycle you are describing and from assumable mortgages is actually the same: pay a premium only when you can quantify what you are buying with it. Rate is a quantifiable asset. Future appreciation is a guess.

        The Assumable Guy544 Reviews
      • Bo SmithPro Member
        Hinton, WV · Member since 2026 · 1k+ posts · 373 votes
        6mo

        You nailed it. The assumption that appreciation cures everything was always flawed, but it got buried when deals were still working on the upside. Now that the math has to work day one, those overleveraged deals are showing cracks fast.

        I've seen this exact scenario in markets like Austin and Phoenix. Property bought at 2023 peak with seller financing, minimal equity, and now the owner's sitting there watching insurance jump 40%, taxes reset 30% higher, and cap rates that don't exist. The deal never worked on fundamentals--it only worked on hope.

        What matters now is acquisition price discipline. You can't fix a bad basis with creative terms. We're back to boring underwriting: does it cash flow now, without appreciation? If not, it's speculative leverage dressed up as investing. Are you seeing owners in your market actually lowering asking prices to reflect these cost realities, or are they holding and hoping the market corrects?

      • Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
        6mo
        Quote from @Chris Seveney:

        A few years ago the message was everywhere: it’s fine to stretch on price because appreciation will make up for it.

        Many buyers did exactly that. Some purchased with seller financing with low down payments, which made the acquisition easier. The assumption was simple: lock up the property now, rents will rise, values will continue climbing, and the numbers will eventually work themselves out.

        But a lot of markets have shifted since then.

        What we are seeing in many cases is a different reality:

        - Purchase prices have largely stalled in some areas

        - Insurance costs have jumped significantly

        - Property taxes have reset higher after sales

        - Maintenance and labor costs are up

        - Interest rates are much higher for anyone needing to refinance

          For buyers who entered deals with minimal equity and thin margins, that combination can create pressure quickly.

          Seller financing and low down payment structures can be useful tools, but they do not fix a property that was purchased at a price where the fundamentals never worked to begin with. If the deal only worked under the assumption that rents and values would keep climbing, the margin for error becomes very small once expenses start rising.

          This brings up a few questions for the community:

          1. Are you seeing properties bought during the peak struggle under rising operating costs?

          2. For those who bought with seller financing or very low down payments, how are those deals performing today?

          3. Has the increase in insurance, taxes, and maintenance changed how you evaluate acquisitions now?

          4. Are buyers seeing these properties on the market and being able to get them at a decent price?

            One of the lessons that seems to repeat every cycle is that creative financing can improve a deal, but it cannot turn a bad basis into a good one.

            They are now buying RV Parks.

            I guess for starters, the 100 + lawsuits flying around in Florida alone convinced some of them to change tactics. One said in a video he and Pace Morby are in a big lawsuit together, someone sued them. 

            What they didn't know apparently, is that buying a business is treated differently than buying someone's home.
            • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
              Moderator
              OP
              Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
              6mo
              Quote from @Ken M.:
              Quote from @Chris Seveney:

              A few years ago the message was everywhere: it’s fine to stretch on price because appreciation will make up for it.

              Many buyers did exactly that. Some purchased with seller financing with low down payments, which made the acquisition easier. The assumption was simple: lock up the property now, rents will rise, values will continue climbing, and the numbers will eventually work themselves out.

              But a lot of markets have shifted since then.

              What we are seeing in many cases is a different reality:

              - Purchase prices have largely stalled in some areas

              - Insurance costs have jumped significantly

              - Property taxes have reset higher after sales

              - Maintenance and labor costs are up

              - Interest rates are much higher for anyone needing to refinance

                For buyers who entered deals with minimal equity and thin margins, that combination can create pressure quickly.

                Seller financing and low down payment structures can be useful tools, but they do not fix a property that was purchased at a price where the fundamentals never worked to begin with. If the deal only worked under the assumption that rents and values would keep climbing, the margin for error becomes very small once expenses start rising.

                This brings up a few questions for the community:

                1. Are you seeing properties bought during the peak struggle under rising operating costs?

                2. For those who bought with seller financing or very low down payments, how are those deals performing today?

                3. Has the increase in insurance, taxes, and maintenance changed how you evaluate acquisitions now?

                4. Are buyers seeing these properties on the market and being able to get them at a decent price?

                  One of the lessons that seems to repeat every cycle is that creative financing can improve a deal, but it cannot turn a bad basis into a good one.

                  They are now buying RV Parks.

                  I guess for starters, the 100 + lawsuits flying around in Florida alone convinced some of them to change tactics. One said in a video he and Pace Morby are in a big lawsuit together, someone sued them. 

                  What they didn't know apparently, is that buying a business is treated differently than buying someone's home.

                   yes because I am sure they are experts in running a RV park, wait till they figure out how to deal with water/sewer issues etc. and replacing lines etc. Just curious how many people have you heard who have been able to say they have been able to retire after owning RV parks (that were not passed down in family lineage)

                  7e investments53 Reviews
                1. Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
                  Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
                  6mo
                  Quote from @Chris Seveney:
                  Quote from @Ken M.:
                  Quote from @Chris Seveney:

                  A few years ago the message was everywhere: it’s fine to stretch on price because appreciation will make up for it.

                  Many buyers did exactly that. Some purchased with seller financing with low down payments, which made the acquisition easier. The assumption was simple: lock up the property now, rents will rise, values will continue climbing, and the numbers will eventually work themselves out.

                  But a lot of markets have shifted since then.

                  What we are seeing in many cases is a different reality:

                  - Purchase prices have largely stalled in some areas

                  - Insurance costs have jumped significantly

                  - Property taxes have reset higher after sales

                  - Maintenance and labor costs are up

                  - Interest rates are much higher for anyone needing to refinance

                    For buyers who entered deals with minimal equity and thin margins, that combination can create pressure quickly.

                    Seller financing and low down payment structures can be useful tools, but they do not fix a property that was purchased at a price where the fundamentals never worked to begin with. If the deal only worked under the assumption that rents and values would keep climbing, the margin for error becomes very small once expenses start rising.

                    This brings up a few questions for the community:

                    1. Are you seeing properties bought during the peak struggle under rising operating costs?

                    2. For those who bought with seller financing or very low down payments, how are those deals performing today?

                    3. Has the increase in insurance, taxes, and maintenance changed how you evaluate acquisitions now?

                    4. Are buyers seeing these properties on the market and being able to get them at a decent price?

                      One of the lessons that seems to repeat every cycle is that creative financing can improve a deal, but it cannot turn a bad basis into a good one.

                      They are now buying RV Parks.

                      I guess for starters, the 100 + lawsuits flying around in Florida alone convinced some of them to change tactics. One said in a video he and Pace Morby are in a big lawsuit together, someone sued them. 

                      What they didn't know apparently, is that buying a business is treated differently than buying someone's home.

                       yes because I am sure they are experts in running a RV park, wait till they figure out how to deal with water/sewer issues etc. and replacing lines etc. Just curious how many people have you heard who have been able to say they have been able to retire after owning RV parks (that were not passed down in family lineage)


                      I learned this one the hard way.. when I did a loan on an RV park and the sewer system ( private) failed  for me personally and for many I know that buy MHPs they will not buy anything that is not on public sewer and water private is a full stop. 
                    1. Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
                      6mo
                      Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
                      Quote from @Chris Seveney:
                      Quote from @Ken M.:
                      Quote from @Chris Seveney:

                      A few years ago the message was everywhere: it’s fine to stretch on price because appreciation will make up for it.

                      Many buyers did exactly that. Some purchased with seller financing with low down payments, which made the acquisition easier. The assumption was simple: lock up the property now, rents will rise, values will continue climbing, and the numbers will eventually work themselves out.

                      But a lot of markets have shifted since then.

                      What we are seeing in many cases is a different reality:

                      - Purchase prices have largely stalled in some areas

                      - Insurance costs have jumped significantly

                      - Property taxes have reset higher after sales

                      - Maintenance and labor costs are up

                      - Interest rates are much higher for anyone needing to refinance

                        For buyers who entered deals with minimal equity and thin margins, that combination can create pressure quickly.

                        Seller financing and low down payment structures can be useful tools, but they do not fix a property that was purchased at a price where the fundamentals never worked to begin with. If the deal only worked under the assumption that rents and values would keep climbing, the margin for error becomes very small once expenses start rising.

                        This brings up a few questions for the community:

                        1. Are you seeing properties bought during the peak struggle under rising operating costs?

                        2. For those who bought with seller financing or very low down payments, how are those deals performing today?

                        3. Has the increase in insurance, taxes, and maintenance changed how you evaluate acquisitions now?

                        4. Are buyers seeing these properties on the market and being able to get them at a decent price?

                          One of the lessons that seems to repeat every cycle is that creative financing can improve a deal, but it cannot turn a bad basis into a good one.

                          They are now buying RV Parks.

                          I guess for starters, the 100 + lawsuits flying around in Florida alone convinced some of them to change tactics. One said in a video he and Pace Morby are in a big lawsuit together, someone sued them. 

                          What they didn't know apparently, is that buying a business is treated differently than buying someone's home.

                           yes because I am sure they are experts in running a RV park, wait till they figure out how to deal with water/sewer issues etc. and replacing lines etc. Just curious how many people have you heard who have been able to say they have been able to retire after owning RV parks (that were not passed down in family lineage)


                          I learned this one the hard way.. when I did a loan on an RV park and the sewer system ( private) failed  for me personally and for many I know that buy MHPs they will not buy anything that is not on public sewer and water private is a full stop. 

                          Years ago, I had 80 acres I was going to convert to an RV Park. My Uncle, who actually used RV Parks, had a whole lot of reasons that was not a good idea. He was looking at it from the overall picture. He's the kind of guy that if it made sense to run an RV Park, he would have done it. But, hey, if you can over pay on terms,  . . .  Lol

                      • John MorganPro Member
                        Rental Property Investor · Grand Prairie, TX · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
                        6mo

                        It feels like everyone jumped in the real estate game after 2021 and 2022 when word got out how easy it was to get wealthy off real estate due to appreciation and high market rent inflation year after year. Everyone was killing it in real estate. Nothing could go wrong. Well the music stopped around 2023 or 2024. And most noobs who jumped in at that time ended up having buyers remorse. Especially the STR crowd when those got way over saturated. Then everyone shifted to MTR. That got over saturated too. Then many investors pivoted to co-living, and that got over saturated as well. And don't get me started with syndications. lol. I don't see a housing crash like the doomers have been telling us for the last 6 or 7 years. But I see a lot of new investors who jumped on the bandwagon in the last 2 or 3 years exiting the real estate world for obvious reasons. And most will probably have losses or lucky to break even. Real estate is a get rich slow investment for most of us. Those that came in thinking they could hit home runs right away like all the gurus told them, got a rude awakening. I'm just a "base hits" investor and continue to buy and hold in good times and bad. Dollar cost averaging in real estate has worked for me over the 11 years I've been investing. And my base hits I bought in 2023 and 2024 are starting to produce runs because I bought right and didn't follow the trends that everyone was doing.

                        • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
                          Moderator
                          OP
                          Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
                          6mo
                          Quote from @John Morgan:

                          It feels like everyone jumped in the real estate game after 2021 and 2022 when word got out how easy it was to get wealthy off real estate due to appreciation and high market rent inflation year after year. Everyone was killing it in real estate. Nothing could go wrong. Well the music stopped around 2023 or 2024. And most noobs who jumped in at that time ended up having buyers remorse. Especially the STR crowd when those got way over saturated. Then everyone shifted to MTR. That got over saturated too. Then many investors pivoted to co-living, and that got over saturated as well. And don't get me started with syndications. lol. I don't see a housing crash like the doomers have been telling us for the last 6 or 7 years. But I see a lot of new investors who jumped on the bandwagon in the last 2 or 3 years exiting the real estate world for obvious reasons. And most will probably have losses or lucky to break even. Real estate is a get rich slow investment for most of us. Those that came in thinking they could hit home runs right away like all the gurus told them, got a rude awakening. I'm just a "base hits" investor and continue to buy and hold in good times and bad. Dollar cost averaging in real estate has worked for me over the 11 years I've been investing. And my base hits I bought in 2023 and 2024 are starting to produce runs because I bought right and didn't follow the trends that everyone was doing.


                          truth that people do not want to hear is if you only plan on being in real estate over a short period of time most likely will not end well for them. And you are correct the STR did not work in a residential area so let me go MTR which also does not work and a LTR never worked and now I am upside down and will lose.

                          7e investments53 Reviews
                      • Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
                        6mo

                        A few years ago at 3% rates it was fine to overpay if it cashflowed positive or payed for itself the total return has been amazing. In fact in my market Chicago most properties are up 20-40% since covid, they never lost their gains and rents are also up 20-30%+ since then. 

                      • Specialist · Grand Rapids, MI · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 611 votes
                        6mo

                        I don't think its a matter of overpaying, but a matter of overpaying and overloading. If you overpaid every year buying 1 property for last 20 years you would be perfectly fine from dollar cost averaging. In general using CAP rate as an example during a hot market I would want to buy a property on a 3-4 point spread meaning if I could get rates as low as 3.5 percent on conservative debt we could buy at 6.5-7.5 cap but when rates got into the high 6s and low 7s we were buying closer to a 1.5 differential knowing that market dynamic would ease.

                      • Rental Property Investor · St. Paul, MN · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
                        6mo

                        @Chris Seveney no matter how many times I would tell people that you need to have real cash flow and can't rely on appreciation, some one would come back with a reason that buying a rental for appreciation was just fine, even if they overpaid today, it would be worth more later. 

                      • Real Estate Broker · Atlanta · Member since 2024 · 1k+ posts · 604 votes
                        6mo

                        Many investors and homeowners are feeling it now, as reflected in the rising number of foreclosures.

                      • Drew SygitBusiness Member
                        Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 9k+ votes
                        6mo
                      • Don KonipolBusiness Member
                        Investor · The Woodlands TX / Avon, CT · Member since 2009 · 6k+ posts · 10k+ votes
                        6mo
                        Quote from @Chris Seveney:

                        A few years ago the message was everywhere: it’s fine to stretch on price because appreciation will make up for it.

                        Many buyers did exactly that. Some purchased with seller financing with low down payments, which made the acquisition easier. The assumption was simple: lock up the property now, rents will rise, values will continue climbing, and the numbers will eventually work themselves out.

                        But a lot of markets have shifted since then.

                        What we are seeing in many cases is a different reality:

                        - Purchase prices have largely stalled in some areas

                        - Insurance costs have jumped significantly

                        - Property taxes have reset higher after sales

                        - Maintenance and labor costs are up

                        - Interest rates are much higher for anyone needing to refinance

                          For buyers who entered deals with minimal equity and thin margins, that combination can create pressure quickly.

                          Seller financing and low down payment structures can be useful tools, but they do not fix a property that was purchased at a price where the fundamentals never worked to begin with. If the deal only worked under the assumption that rents and values would keep climbing, the margin for error becomes very small once expenses start rising.

                          This brings up a few questions for the community:

                          1. Are you seeing properties bought during the peak struggle under rising operating costs?

                          2. For those who bought with seller financing or very low down payments, how are those deals performing today?

                          3. Has the increase in insurance, taxes, and maintenance changed how you evaluate acquisitions now?

                          4. Are buyers seeing these properties on the market and being able to get them at a decent price?

                            One of the lessons that seems to repeat every cycle is that creative financing can improve a deal, but it cannot turn a bad basis into a good one.

                            Granted, it’s BETTER to buy at prices that cash flow positive, and at market troughs rather than peaks.  But, because good quality property in growing locations will appreciate LONG TERM, then holding long term will still result in successful investment.  As long as the investor can with stand potential short term reversals - both actual and psychological. 

                            It goes back to (1) if your perspective is long term rather than short or mid term and (2) if you have STAYING POWER.

                            There is no “this is the great product type to invest in”.  For any investment the successful investor needs knowledge of (1) real estate principals (2) real estate finance and (3) real estate law.  For real estate investments that contain a BUSINESS element - like hotels, MHPs, assisted living, etc., more and specific knowledge, experience, expertise and managerial ability is needed. 

                            Using the example of MHP, for those who plan on investing in and running the MHP investment, specific knowledge of MHPs is required in addition to more general real estate knowledge.  For example, despite my 48 years experience in real estate investing and finance, I know I am not qualified to run a hotel or MHP.  While I invest in them, I only do so when I have a “partner/manager” whose knowledge and experience I can rely on.  

                            People who want to invest in real estate come in three varieties

                            1. 60% - want perfect information and knowledge before they invest, so won’t ever feel comfortable enough to invest  

                            2. 30% - don’t know what they don’t know and end up investing without the knowledge, experience or expertise necessary

                            3. 10% - have a realistic understanding of what’s needed and obtain the education and expertise and then  Successfully invest. 

                            Private Mortgage Financing Partners, LLC
                          1. Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
                            6mo

                            In the properties and areas we "overpaid", invested on appreciation, were doing GREAT @Chris Seveney but...... Here's the differentiator. 

                            When I do things on appreciation, I am NOT using some general number plucked from thin air. I am using a factual basis of data to forecast from. I speak to city engineers, I review the planned city development plan, I dig into the commercial permitting and get to know who's doing what when because, and this is a secret tip 47 of mine, companies like McDonalds, Gas stations, Walmart etc etc, they all decide on placement via metrics. If I have insight into where there positioning I have insight into those metrics, it's a confirmation of growth thesis. 

                            And past that, gotta know the supply/demand metrics. Who's building what, who can come in and build what, and what cost's, leading to what prices to consumers. 

                            I spend a ridiculous amount of time nerding out on the data and numbers to peg the forecasted appreciation of an area or property. 

                            I entered Andover as the water/sewer laterals approached max capacity and after talking with engineers noting it will be minimum 7yrs to expand that capacity and that's if political process started that day. More realistic was 10yrs or so. And the area ratings were sky high, drawing major livability scores and desire to live there. 

                            Appreciation is a RESULT, like cash-flow. So I focus on the inputs that make great appreciation. I look for where those ingredients exist, indicators of endurance, and cross reference by the factors of a supply "moat". 

                            I see almost nobody else doing this. Not in residential. In commercial, heck yeah but for some reason residential is predominantly flying off hope and guesswork. 

                            Same reasons why I didn't enter DFW when toured a couple years back. Everything I saw said the top is in. Stagflation ahead. 

                            Appreciation is not some strange mysterious creature that may or may not appear. It's the result of certain factors. Macro, micro. Macro on the USD assorted "things". Micro, in this context of real estate investing, property values and rents, it's a check-list of things. 

                            This is very similar to the STR market, where certain operators are crushing it while masses of novices are suffering. Because one approaches it like a business, the other a gamble.

                            Gambles have a natural gravity to loosing far more often then winning. 

                            • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
                              Moderator
                              OP
                              Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @James Hamling:

                              In the properties and areas we "overpaid", invested on appreciation, were doing GREAT @Chris Seveney but...... Here's the differentiator. 

                              When I do things on appreciation, I am NOT using some general number plucked from thin air. I am using a factual basis of data to forecast from. I speak to city engineers, I review the planned city development plan, I dig into the commercial permitting and get to know who's doing what when because, and this is a secret tip 47 of mine, companies like McDonalds, Gas stations, Walmart etc etc, they all decide on placement via metrics. If I have insight into where there positioning I have insight into those metrics, it's a confirmation of growth thesis. 

                              And past that, gotta know the supply/demand metrics. Who's building what, who can come in and build what, and what cost's, leading to what prices to consumers. 

                              I spend a ridiculous amount of time nerding out on the data and numbers to peg the forecasted appreciation of an area or property. 

                              I entered Andover as the water/sewer laterals approached max capacity and after talking with engineers noting it will be minimum 7yrs to expand that capacity and that's if political process started that day. More realistic was 10yrs or so. And the area ratings were sky high, drawing major livability scores and desire to live there. 

                              Appreciation is a RESULT, like cash-flow. So I focus on the inputs that make great appreciation. I look for where those ingredients exist, indicators of endurance, and cross reference by the factors of a supply "moat". 

                              I see almost nobody else doing this. Not in residential. In commercial, heck yeah but for some reason residential is predominantly flying off hope and guesswork. 

                              Same reasons why I didn't enter DFW when toured a couple years back. Everything I saw said the top is in. Stagflation ahead. 

                              Appreciation is not some strange mysterious creature that may or may not appear. It's the result of certain factors. Macro, micro. Macro on the USD assorted "things". Micro, in this context of real estate investing, property values and rents, it's a check-list of things. 

                              This is very similar to the STR market, where certain operators are crushing it while masses of novices are suffering. Because one approaches it like a business, the other a gamble.

                              Gambles have a natural gravity to loosing far more often then winning. 


                               Great post, this is the difference between active real estate investors and those who just buy a rental for cashflow and many times they get thrown in the same bucket. its like someone who golfs every weekend versus someone who lives and breaths it and knows the miniscule differences that others do not know. But many times they all get thrown in as golfers - but those that are professional at what they do are on a whole different level. 

                              7e investments53 Reviews
                            • Don KonipolBusiness Member
                              Investor · The Woodlands TX / Avon, CT · Member since 2009 · 6k+ posts · 10k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @James Hamling:

                              In the properties and areas we "overpaid", invested on appreciation, were doing GREAT @Chris Seveney but...... Here's the differentiator. 

                              When I do things on appreciation, I am NOT using some general number plucked from thin air. I am using a factual basis of data to forecast from. I speak to city engineers, I review the planned city development plan, I dig into the commercial permitting and get to know who's doing what when because, and this is a secret tip 47 of mine, companies like McDonalds, Gas stations, Walmart etc etc, they all decide on placement via metrics. If I have insight into where there positioning I have insight into those metrics, it's a confirmation of growth thesis. 

                              And past that, gotta know the supply/demand metrics. Who's building what, who can come in and build what, and what cost's, leading to what prices to consumers. 

                              I spend a ridiculous amount of time nerding out on the data and numbers to peg the forecasted appreciation of an area or property. 

                              I entered Andover as the water/sewer laterals approached max capacity and after talking with engineers noting it will be minimum 7yrs to expand that capacity and that's if political process started that day. More realistic was 10yrs or so. And the area ratings were sky high, drawing major livability scores and desire to live there. 

                              Appreciation is a RESULT, like cash-flow. So I focus on the inputs that make great appreciation. I look for where those ingredients exist, indicators of endurance, and cross reference by the factors of a supply "moat". 

                              I see almost nobody else doing this. Not in residential. In commercial, heck yeah but for some reason residential is predominantly flying off hope and guesswork. 

                              Same reasons why I didn't enter DFW when toured a couple years back. Everything I saw said the top is in. Stagflation ahead. 

                              Appreciation is not some strange mysterious creature that may or may not appear. It's the result of certain factors. Macro, micro. Macro on the USD assorted "things". Micro, in this context of real estate investing, property values and rents, it's a check-list of things. 

                              This is very similar to the STR market, where certain operators are crushing it while masses of novices are suffering. Because one approaches it like a business, the other a gamble.

                              Gambles have a natural gravity to loosing far more often then winning. 

                              “When I do things on appreciation, I am NOT using some general number plucked from thin air. I am using a factual basis of data to forecast from. I speak to city engineers, I review the planned city development plan, I dig into the commercial permitting and get to know who's doing what when because, and this is a secret tip 47 of mine, companies like McDonalds, Gas stations, Walmart etc etc, they all decide on placement via metrics. If I have insight into where there positioning I have insight into those metrics, it's a confirmation of growth thesis.”

                              And the gurus have inexperienced people with no capital and little if any expertise believing that with a 2 day seminar and advice provided by a failed salesperson reading from a script they can successfully compete with the above.  Can any premise be more ridiculous?
                              Private Mortgage Financing Partners, LLC
                            • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
                              Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @Don Konipol:
                              Quote from @James Hamling:

                              In the properties and areas we "overpaid", invested on appreciation, were doing GREAT @Chris Seveney but...... Here's the differentiator. 

                              When I do things on appreciation, I am NOT using some general number plucked from thin air. I am using a factual basis of data to forecast from. I speak to city engineers, I review the planned city development plan, I dig into the commercial permitting and get to know who's doing what when because, and this is a secret tip 47 of mine, companies like McDonalds, Gas stations, Walmart etc etc, they all decide on placement via metrics. If I have insight into where there positioning I have insight into those metrics, it's a confirmation of growth thesis. 

                              And past that, gotta know the supply/demand metrics. Who's building what, who can come in and build what, and what cost's, leading to what prices to consumers. 

                              I spend a ridiculous amount of time nerding out on the data and numbers to peg the forecasted appreciation of an area or property. 

                              I entered Andover as the water/sewer laterals approached max capacity and after talking with engineers noting it will be minimum 7yrs to expand that capacity and that's if political process started that day. More realistic was 10yrs or so. And the area ratings were sky high, drawing major livability scores and desire to live there. 

                              Appreciation is a RESULT, like cash-flow. So I focus on the inputs that make great appreciation. I look for where those ingredients exist, indicators of endurance, and cross reference by the factors of a supply "moat". 

                              I see almost nobody else doing this. Not in residential. In commercial, heck yeah but for some reason residential is predominantly flying off hope and guesswork. 

                              Same reasons why I didn't enter DFW when toured a couple years back. Everything I saw said the top is in. Stagflation ahead. 

                              Appreciation is not some strange mysterious creature that may or may not appear. It's the result of certain factors. Macro, micro. Macro on the USD assorted "things". Micro, in this context of real estate investing, property values and rents, it's a check-list of things. 

                              This is very similar to the STR market, where certain operators are crushing it while masses of novices are suffering. Because one approaches it like a business, the other a gamble.

                              Gambles have a natural gravity to loosing far more often then winning. 

                              “When I do things on appreciation, I am NOT using some general number plucked from thin air. I am using a factual basis of data to forecast from. I speak to city engineers, I review the planned city development plan, I dig into the commercial permitting and get to know who's doing what when because, and this is a secret tip 47 of mine, companies like McDonalds, Gas stations, Walmart etc etc, they all decide on placement via metrics. If I have insight into where there positioning I have insight into those metrics, it's a confirmation of growth thesis.”

                              And the gurus have inexperienced people with no capital and little if any expertise believing that with a 2 day seminar and advice provided by a failed salesperson reading from a script they can successfully compete with the above.  Can any premise be more ridiculous?

                              most cities and counties have a comp plan that designates were growth will occur through zoning.. those are critical elements of deciding were the path of progress is going .. And ton of dough made in the path of progress as those of us who have watched it for 30 to 50 years.
                            • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @Don Konipol:
                              Quote from @James Hamling:

                              In the properties and areas we "overpaid", invested on appreciation, were doing GREAT @Chris Seveney but...... Here's the differentiator. 

                              When I do things on appreciation, I am NOT using some general number plucked from thin air. I am using a factual basis of data to forecast from. I speak to city engineers, I review the planned city development plan, I dig into the commercial permitting and get to know who's doing what when because, and this is a secret tip 47 of mine, companies like McDonalds, Gas stations, Walmart etc etc, they all decide on placement via metrics. If I have insight into where there positioning I have insight into those metrics, it's a confirmation of growth thesis. 

                              And past that, gotta know the supply/demand metrics. Who's building what, who can come in and build what, and what cost's, leading to what prices to consumers. 

                              I spend a ridiculous amount of time nerding out on the data and numbers to peg the forecasted appreciation of an area or property. 

                              I entered Andover as the water/sewer laterals approached max capacity and after talking with engineers noting it will be minimum 7yrs to expand that capacity and that's if political process started that day. More realistic was 10yrs or so. And the area ratings were sky high, drawing major livability scores and desire to live there. 

                              Appreciation is a RESULT, like cash-flow. So I focus on the inputs that make great appreciation. I look for where those ingredients exist, indicators of endurance, and cross reference by the factors of a supply "moat". 

                              I see almost nobody else doing this. Not in residential. In commercial, heck yeah but for some reason residential is predominantly flying off hope and guesswork. 

                              Same reasons why I didn't enter DFW when toured a couple years back. Everything I saw said the top is in. Stagflation ahead. 

                              Appreciation is not some strange mysterious creature that may or may not appear. It's the result of certain factors. Macro, micro. Macro on the USD assorted "things". Micro, in this context of real estate investing, property values and rents, it's a check-list of things. 

                              This is very similar to the STR market, where certain operators are crushing it while masses of novices are suffering. Because one approaches it like a business, the other a gamble.

                              Gambles have a natural gravity to loosing far more often then winning. 

                              “When I do things on appreciation, I am NOT using some general number plucked from thin air. I am using a factual basis of data to forecast from. I speak to city engineers, I review the planned city development plan, I dig into the commercial permitting and get to know who's doing what when because, and this is a secret tip 47 of mine, companies like McDonalds, Gas stations, Walmart etc etc, they all decide on placement via metrics. If I have insight into where there positioning I have insight into those metrics, it's a confirmation of growth thesis.”

                              And the gurus have inexperienced people with no capital and little if any expertise believing that with a 2 day seminar and advice provided by a failed salesperson reading from a script they can successfully compete with the above.  Can any premise be more ridiculous?
                              "And the gurus have inexperienced people with no capital and little if any expertise believing that with a 2 day seminar and advice provided by a failed salesperson reading from a script they can successfully compete with the above. Can any premise be more ridiculous?"

                              Well, it's the messaging that sells programs, books, memberships etc..
                              We have a desperate society grasping at magical golden tickets. Look at the rise and proliferation of sport betting, Polymarket, options trading by novices, it's all screaming this message. 
                              Despite fact, and obvious fact, MOST loose, still so-many grasp to these get-rich-quick schemes of ideations. 

                              The path to wealth is today still just as simple as it's been for hundreds and thousands of years: 
                              Identify an unmeet or poorly meet need. Provide a product/service meeting that need for a compensation. Scale it. 

                              But it takes time, energy, effort. 
                              And that's not a sexy message. The popular seek is get the output without the input. 
                              It's a form of sociological psychosis. 
                          2. V.G JasonPro Member
                            Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
                            6mo

                            Overpaying to capture appreciation is fine if you have the cash for it and you're buying real scarcity (location plus zoning). 

                            If you don't have deep pockets and a long term frame, minimum 7-8, ideally 12-15+ then this will end terribly for you.

                          3. Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
                            6mo

                            Hey, I am still here @Chris Seveney! Most properties I ever bought I felt I overpaid at the time - but I increasingly picked good locations in the suburbs and that does not come cheap. And for sure we overpay when we do our rehabs, because I am a fan of doing it right the first time. That means for example ripping out all the plumbing instead of a patch job. 

                            So the first few years cashflow usually does not exist, but that's part of the plan. Tax write offs and principal paydown are the main drivers. Cash flow starts later.

                            You are right about listing slow appreciation, rising insurance cost and in my case property taxes very much. So you have to be able to support this. What you are describing: seller financing, high LTV, aggressive portfolio growth - that sure is a recipe for disaster - and I am starting to hear about people flailing, and hoping the Fed will lower rates

                            • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
                              Moderator
                              OP
                              Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

                              Hey, I am still here @Chris Seveney! Most properties I ever bought I felt I overpaid at the time - but I increasingly picked good locations in the suburbs and that does not come cheap. And for sure we overpay when we do our rehabs, because I am a fan of doing it right the first time. That means for example ripping out all the plumbing instead of a patch job. 

                              So the first few years cashflow usually does not exist, but that's part of the plan. Tax write offs and principal paydown are the main drivers. Cash flow starts later.

                              You are right about listing slow appreciation, rising insurance cost and in my case property taxes very much. So you have to be able to support this. What you are describing: seller financing, high LTV, aggressive portfolio growth - that sure is a recipe for disaster - and I am starting to hear about people flailing, and hoping the Fed will lower rates

                              But were you paying over appraisal value? There was a contingent that were ok paying $250,000 for a $200,000 home because they thought they were getting a great interest rate and use it as a rental and eventually it will be worth more.
                              7e investments53 Reviews
                            • Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @Chris Seveney:
                              Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

                              Hey, I am still here @Chris Seveney! Most properties I ever bought I felt I overpaid at the time - but I increasingly picked good locations in the suburbs and that does not come cheap. And for sure we overpay when we do our rehabs, because I am a fan of doing it right the first time. That means for example ripping out all the plumbing instead of a patch job. 

                              So the first few years cashflow usually does not exist, but that's part of the plan. Tax write offs and principal paydown are the main drivers. Cash flow starts later.

                              You are right about listing slow appreciation, rising insurance cost and in my case property taxes very much. So you have to be able to support this. What you are describing: seller financing, high LTV, aggressive portfolio growth - that sure is a recipe for disaster - and I am starting to hear about people flailing, and hoping the Fed will lower rates

                              But were you paying over appraisal value? There was a contingent that were ok paying $250,000 for a $200,000 home because they thought they were getting a great interest rate and use it as a rental and eventually it will be worth more.
                              The thing I fall back on in the "time value of money". Can I take the extra $50,000 someone paid and use it to get a better deal without draining the account because the property is cash flow negative. Seems we've got three investment pieces; "time", "money", " health".

                              By overpaying, (Using too much money for a return) we are straining the other two.

                              Remember, a house isn't worth what someone will pay for it. a house is worth is worth what someone will pay for it, minus realtor fees when you sell, minus closing costs when you sell, minus repairs when you sell, minus taxes when you sell, minus missed opportunities during your hold. And of course, that assumes selling for a "profit" and not a loss.


                            • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
                              6mo

                              Ya-Know @Chris Seveney the overpay on general sentiment of epic appreciation isn't exclusive to investment real estate. 

                              PLTR P/E 248, TSLA P/E 368, AXON P/E 379..... 

                              And this is just a limited few of the many many trading at prices way WAY outside any metric of sanity. 

                              While many like to say it's an ai bubble thing, I'd remind NVDA the "King" of the ai movement is at P/E 36 with forward of P/E 22. 

                              It's a societal sickness thing, IMO. 

                              The gamble obsession with disjointed expectations seems to be prolific across the board; stock market, investment real estate, syndications..... 

                            • Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @Chris Seveney:
                              Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

                              Hey, I am still here @Chris Seveney! Most properties I ever bought I felt I overpaid at the time - but I increasingly picked good locations in the suburbs and that does not come cheap. And for sure we overpay when we do our rehabs, because I am a fan of doing it right the first time. That means for example ripping out all the plumbing instead of a patch job. 

                              So the first few years cashflow usually does not exist, but that's part of the plan. Tax write offs and principal paydown are the main drivers. Cash flow starts later.

                              You are right about listing slow appreciation, rising insurance cost and in my case property taxes very much. So you have to be able to support this. What you are describing: seller financing, high LTV, aggressive portfolio growth - that sure is a recipe for disaster - and I am starting to hear about people flailing, and hoping the Fed will lower rates

                              But were you paying over appraisal value? There was a contingent that were ok paying $250,000 for a $200,000 home because they thought they were getting a great interest rate and use it as a rental and eventually it will be worth more.

                              Yeah okay, that's just stupid. For me the question is always: Do you want a great property or a great deal, because you can't have both.

                            • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
                              Quote from @Chris Seveney:
                              Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

                              Hey, I am still here @Chris Seveney! Most properties I ever bought I felt I overpaid at the time - but I increasingly picked good locations in the suburbs and that does not come cheap. And for sure we overpay when we do our rehabs, because I am a fan of doing it right the first time. That means for example ripping out all the plumbing instead of a patch job. 

                              So the first few years cashflow usually does not exist, but that's part of the plan. Tax write offs and principal paydown are the main drivers. Cash flow starts later.

                              You are right about listing slow appreciation, rising insurance cost and in my case property taxes very much. So you have to be able to support this. What you are describing: seller financing, high LTV, aggressive portfolio growth - that sure is a recipe for disaster - and I am starting to hear about people flailing, and hoping the Fed will lower rates

                              But were you paying over appraisal value? There was a contingent that were ok paying $250,000 for a $200,000 home because they thought they were getting a great interest rate and use it as a rental and eventually it will be worth more.

                              Yeah okay, that's just stupid. For me the question is always: Do you want a great property or a great deal, because you can't have both.

                              I think that's at the heart of what Chris is saying, that most were/are not seeking either and have been on a mission of just getting "a" property, any ole property. 

                              The prevailing popularized rhetoric is it's just a matter of dollars and cents that define good, bad or great. 

                              Nothing about market vectoring, micro market cycles, gentrification cycles, etc etc. Nope just it's "good" if get any ole property that was asking ___ for ___. Which isn't true. One may be grabbing a falling knife, most likely is grabbing a falling knife be it via market or capex or whatever. 

                              To identify quality properties takes skills. Skills that require education, time, effort, to gain and master. That is antigen to selling a quick start program where "anyone can"..... 

                              It all cycles back to the sociology of the day; the instant mindset. 

                              It's like persons think investing can be like a dinner. If they can just buy a pre-prepared chef made meal, pop it in a microwave, skip all the work of making it, the work of knowing how to cook, basically "buy" instant dinner success..... Why can't they just buy instant investing success? And so they seek that. Find many are happy to promise such. So we get what we got right here today. 

                            • Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
                              6mo
                              Quote from @James Hamling:
                              Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
                              Quote from @Chris Seveney:
                              Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

                              Hey, I am still here @Chris Seveney! Most properties I ever bought I felt I overpaid at the time - but I increasingly picked good locations in the suburbs and that does not come cheap. And for sure we overpay when we do our rehabs, because I am a fan of doing it right the first time. That means for example ripping out all the plumbing instead of a patch job. 

                              So the first few years cashflow usually does not exist, but that's part of the plan. Tax write offs and principal paydown are the main drivers. Cash flow starts later.

                              You are right about listing slow appreciation, rising insurance cost and in my case property taxes very much. So you have to be able to support this. What you are describing: seller financing, high LTV, aggressive portfolio growth - that sure is a recipe for disaster - and I am starting to hear about people flailing, and hoping the Fed will lower rates

                              But were you paying over appraisal value? There was a contingent that were ok paying $250,000 for a $200,000 home because they thought they were getting a great interest rate and use it as a rental and eventually it will be worth more.

                              Yeah okay, that's just stupid. For me the question is always: Do you want a great property or a great deal, because you can't have both.

                              I think that's at the heart of what Chris is saying, that most were/are not seeking either and have been on a mission of just getting "a" property, any ole property. 

                              The prevailing popularized rhetoric is it's just a matter of dollars and cents that define good, bad or great. 

                              Nothing about market vectoring, micro market cycles, gentrification cycles, etc etc. Nope just it's "good" if get any ole property that was asking ___ for ___. Which isn't true. One may be grabbing a falling knife, most likely is grabbing a falling knife be it via market or capex or whatever. 

                              To identify quality properties takes skills. Skills that require education, time, effort, to gain and master. That is antigen to selling a quick start program where "anyone can"..... 

                              It all cycles back to the sociology of the day; the instant mindset. 

                              It's like persons think investing can be like a dinner. If they can just buy a pre-prepared chef made meal, pop it in a microwave, skip all the work of making it, the work of knowing how to cook, basically "buy" instant dinner success..... Why can't they just buy instant investing success? And so they seek that. Find many are happy to promise such. So we get what we got right here today. 


                              Probably the most common mistake by buyers of all kinds is to think that getting a discount off list price equals a good deal. You can negotiate 20k off and still pay 30k too much. Or vice versa.

                          4. Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2017 · 107 posts · 89 votes
                            6mo
                            Quote from @Chris Seveney:

                            A few years ago the message was everywhere: it’s fine to stretch on price because appreciation will make up for it.

                            Many buyers did exactly that. Some purchased with seller financing with low down payments, which made the acquisition easier. The assumption was simple: lock up the property now, rents will rise, values will continue climbing, and the numbers will eventually work themselves out.

                            But a lot of markets have shifted since then.

                            What we are seeing in many cases is a different reality:

                            - Purchase prices have largely stalled in some areas

                            - Insurance costs have jumped significantly

                            - Property taxes have reset higher after sales

                            - Maintenance and labor costs are up

                            - Interest rates are much higher for anyone needing to refinance

                              For buyers who entered deals with minimal equity and thin margins, that combination can create pressure quickly.

                              Seller financing and low down payment structures can be useful tools, but they do not fix a property that was purchased at a price where the fundamentals never worked to begin with. If the deal only worked under the assumption that rents and values would keep climbing, the margin for error becomes very small once expenses start rising.

                              This brings up a few questions for the community:

                              1. Are you seeing properties bought during the peak struggle under rising operating costs?

                              2. For those who bought with seller financing or very low down payments, how are those deals performing today?

                              3. Has the increase in insurance, taxes, and maintenance changed how you evaluate acquisitions now?

                              4. Are buyers seeing these properties on the market and being able to get them at a decent price?

                                One of the lessons that seems to repeat every cycle is that creative financing can improve a deal, but it cannot turn a bad basis into a good one.


                                 The cycle always turns. It was fun while it lasted. The market is a teacher, and some students are getting a lesson.

                              1. Bo SmithPro Member
                                Hinton, WV · Member since 2026 · 1k+ posts · 373 votes
                                6mo

                                Chris analysis is perfect -- creative financing only masks a bad deal, it does not fix it. We have all seen the blogs selling this dream. And yeah, there are definitely properties bought at peak hype now sitting on razor-thin margins. When taxes reassess and insurance jumps, those deals go from working to not quite.

                                The guys who actually won in 2021-22 were not the ones stretching at 85% ARV betting on appreciation. They were the ones buying deals that already worked on cash flow alone. Appreciation was the bonus, not the plan. The new reality is pricing is reset, but the fundamentals still matter.

                                Are you seeing older investors pivot back to buy-and-hold, or are most of the 2021-era cohort still trying to flip their way out?

                              2. Don KonipolBusiness Member
                                Investor · The Woodlands TX / Avon, CT · Member since 2009 · 6k+ posts · 10k+ votes
                                6mo

                                I’ve actually utilized “creative financing” to FIX deals that weren’t viable under conventional terms

                                Example 1. Retail center owner couldn’t obtain lower rate than his current 12.75% mortgage loan and his 18% second.  We utilized our bank relationship for a 4% fixed rate take out loan.  By investing $200,000 cash debt pay down  we obtained 60% ownership, ultimately worth about $800,000.  

                                Example 2 - I paid full asking price (full market value) for a commercial condo unit with the seller financing for 8years at 0% interest.  Cash flow break even, in 7 years I owned condo free and clear. 

                                Obtaining seller financing, or stacking loans, at or above market rates are a disaster hoping for a bailout by either selling to a “greater fool” or inflationary price increases.  It’s creatively LOWERING interest expense that is the “secret sauce” of creative financing.  While the gurus sell creative financing as a way to increase leverage, that’s the WORST use.  

                                People with little or no capital can be successful in real estate , but onLy IF they possess SUPERIOR KNOWLEDGE, SUPERIOR ABILITY, and ACCESS TO CAPITAL.  

                                Private Mortgage Financing Partners, LLC
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