Should Newbies Have Access to Calculators?

Should Newbies Have Access to Calculators?

Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes

OK, y'all.  Are you new?  If so - pay attention...

I got a PM today from a very nice guy.  Very well-spoken, seemingly intelligent, and well educated.

He introduced himself, and congratulated me with a job well-done on Cardone's show. And then he proceeded to tell me about a multiplex he was considering.  He said that the price was too high, and he knew it.  But, he was going to be able to achieve very favorable owner-financing terms, with low down-payment, 30-year am, and low interest rate.

He then invited me to view a link, which turned out to be a PDF of Brandon Turner's BP Calculator, and asked for my opinion...

You should know - I answer each and every message, email, and telephone call; specifically when approached with due consideration, as in this case.  I proceeded to open the PDF, and was impressed!

I've never actually used the calculator before.  I've heard Brandon sell it as "sexy" on webinars before, but I'm old and got no energy for "sexy"...  So - I was impressed with all of the color and nice graphics...

And then I looked at the top line numbers:

Income: $7,975
Expenses: $7,560

Cash Flow: $414

This is a 10+ unit, by the way.  The proposed cost was north of $650k.  Required down-payment was around $30,000...

WOW - anyone else see a problem with this?  

I've often said that it's about as difficult to buy RE as it is to fall out of a tree.  Well - this dude just fell out of a flippin tree...haha  At least he was smart enough to allow a tree branch (me) smack him over the top of his head.  Perhaps now he'll begin to look at things a bit differently..

But, there is another interesting piece to be noted here.  How can someone look at those numbers inside a colorful sexy PDF and see absolutely nothing?  And - should someone have access to a tool such as this prior to attaining a level of fluency to be able to interpret what he is seeing?

This type of use of calculators demotes them to a stat gimmick.  The tool is no use until and unless the user knows enough to be able to use it.

So - should newbies have access to calculators?  Is it really a benefit.  Or, would it be better, if we really want to teach them how to do this math, to sit them down in front of a spreadsheet and really teach them how this works...perhaps even in a webinar?

Thoughts? 

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Brandon TurnerPro Member
Investor · Maui, HI · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 3k+ votes
11y

The calculators are just a tool. A spreadsheet is not going to be any better at telling someone that $400 a month in cash flow on a 10-plex is a bad idea. The only way they learn that is by learning it, which ... correct me if I'm wrong... is what 99% of BiggerPockets is? 

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Contractor · Mc Kinney, TX · Member since 2014 · 17 posts · 8 votes
    11y

    That is a long, long time.

  • Interior Designer/Real Estate Investor · Eugene, OR · Member since 2013 · 168 posts · 91 votes
    11y

    @Ben Leybovich

    ;) Does this mean you are volunteering to do a webinar to teach us Newbies about the numbers? What do you think @Joshua D. and @Brandon Turner ?

    Joking aside.  I am a Newbie (kinda)  I have been on BP now for about a year.  I have listened to every podcast, read many forum posts, asked questions and I am pretty sure I would have immediately recognized that as a pretty sketchy attempt at "eraser" style numbers.  Multiplexes are not my niche.  (yet)

    However, I don't believe that restricting the use of those calculators is going to prevent a Newbie from making a bad investment if that is what they really want to do. I could be slightly biased in my desire to maintain access to those calculators...and when do we become "not" Newbies. Like I said above, I have been on BP for over a year, called myself a REI for that long, made a few offers (around 30) and still have not closed my first deal. Who sets the bar? What is the bar?

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 10 posts · 5 votes
    11y

    Ditto to what @Laureen Youngblood said.  I'm a newbie.  I would've seen that problem.  Training webs/pods would be great though!

  • Real Estate Broker · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2014 · 31 posts · 14 votes
    11y

    I'll just say that learning to use Excel proficiently for financial modeling has been one of the biggest assets in my understanding of the investment world.  A degree in finance is practically worthless without it.  I'm thankful for mediums that have been created that already have mathematical relationships setup for people, but understanding the mechanics of the deal are where everything is won and lost! I think the training wheels must come off rather quickly for people to not become dependent on them and avoid learning how to do the real thinking behind their transactions.  

  • Brandon TurnerPro Member
    Investor · Maui, HI · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    The calculators are just a tool. A spreadsheet is not going to be any better at telling someone that $400 a month in cash flow on a 10-plex is a bad idea. The only way they learn that is by learning it, which ... correct me if I'm wrong... is what 99% of BiggerPockets is? 

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    @Brandon Turner - yes, but a spreadsheet requires thought process which is different from data entry process such as the calculator.  This calculator is a tool to make things pretty.  Before anyone is ready for that, they must do the dirty work - could it be that the calculator is robbing people of the chance to rationalize the process through the numbers?  Could the calculator be akin to putting the  cart in front of the horse...?!

  • Rental Property Investor · Toronto, ON · Member since 2015 · 29 posts · 7 votes
    11y

    I think there is more context required here.  It's one thing to dump on a calculator, but perhaps this is a live in, long term flip/refi, whereby as long as it breaks even currently, the bottom line should get better and better as one improves each unit.  Not to make excuses, it does seem like a skinny deal, but to imply the person is dumb for considering it, I'm not sure I can buy that.  Also, I think you may have answered your own question whether they should have calculators.  If in fact, this person refrains from a bad deal by working through inputting the details and then asking for an opinion on said calculator's output, I think we can see value in their existence, especially for "newbies".

  • Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2015 · 7 posts · 5 votes
    11y

    I've only been looking into REI for a month so without a doubt fall in the newbie category. It wouldn't make sense to me to limit the usage of the calculators as they're just another tool in the toolbox to use when analyzing property's.

    Since I'm still trying to get a feel of the market around me (And REI in general) I've been picking random listings off the MLS and playing the "what if" game. What if I bought this at 70% of list, what if renovations cost double what I'd expect, what if the average rent in the area dropped $100 per door. Then plugging these numbers into my personal spreadsheet, others spreadsheets that I've downloaded and online calculators. If I had just used one resource I don't believe I'd have as much confidence in the numbers or an understanding of the significance of the different inputs.

    Of course you have to supplement these with other resources such as the forums, books or the Podcast (Currently on 88). Making sure you're well educated seems to be the first and most important factor in due diligence to me. 

    Having said all that a webinar walking through the numbers could be very helpful for those who have not yet created their own spreadsheet or walked through all of the numbers. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    @Tyler Veres - I, of course, don't really mean he is dumb.  Not the least, he did know enough to reach out to me.  Essentially what happened here is this:

    He put the numbers into the calculator and reached out to me to "translate" what those numbers meant.  Personally, if we call this calculator a tool, then @Brandon Turner needs to do more to TEACH people not only how to put the numbers into the thing, but what the hell they mean.  I promise - the guy who reached out to me is not alone...

    If we are teaching newbies - let's teach 'em!

  • Colleen F.Pro Member
    Investor · Narragansett, RI · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    The saying with data is Garbage in - garbage out. If the numbers are lousy if you use pencil and paper or a tool with nice graphics  $414 is  $414.  It doesn't change the numbers. 

    I don't think a new person is evaluating this different because the spreadsheet is nicer, they just don't get that the $414  is not going to compensate them for their effort.  What is sometimes lost to people is how much they are earning for the time they put into their buy and hold. It is only when you get hands on or talk to other people that you get a handle on what your effort is for that profit margin.   What isn't in a spreadsheet is how many hours each tenant costs you.

    Spreadsheets are tools , one of many people should  be using.  If someone is swayed by the layout even when the numbers coming out aren't so great well that is where they are at in their learning curve.   Contacting other investors to get a second opinion is another tool people use to see if they are on track with I think is where this investor was going.

    So I don' t think calculators should be restricted.  Everyone is entitled to make their own mistakes using whatever tools they want to. It is one tool on BP there are so many others.

  • Nottingham, MD · Member since 2014 · 109 posts · 37 votes
    11y

    I am just starting out myself and at first I was running practice numbers through the calculator to get a feel for it. I have also put together my own spreadsheet with my specific criteria and I have found out a few things for myself. 

     1. Having to create my own sheet has shown me what the numbers mean and how to use them in and at the right place. I am able to change numbers as needed, such as interest rates and what profit % i want. I can see behind the curtain so to speak.

    2. I can spot any issues as they pop up.

    3. My sheet is almost dead on with what the calculator gives me. Sometimes a bit more or less. 

    Creating my own has been a huge learning tool for the numbers.

  • Lima, Lima · Member since 2014 · 59 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    There are a few things I don't understand about the initial post. How could the required DP be only 30,000 on a 650K property? And if you could get this deal for 30K DP with 5K a year cash flow why wouldn't you? That's almost 17percent. Since this post was about teaching newbies like myself, I would really appreciate someone pointing out what I obviously seem to be missing here. Thanks!

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    @Brandon Turner - @Mark Masiel just made my point...lol  You wanna take this on?

  • Lima, Lima · Member since 2014 · 59 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    What point was that Ben? You asked if newbies should have the use of calculators. I simply asked for your help. You have stated that someone can buy a 650K property with only 30K down and still make 5K in cash flow.

    I stated that this does not seem to make sense to me and asked for help in understanding this.  If you could actually buy a 650K property with only 30K AND make 5K in cash flow why wouldn't you? This was a question.

    Finally, who is giving this guy a 650K place with only 30 down? That does not make sense at all.

    My question had Zero to do with the calculator and everything about your post.

  • Investor · Singapore · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    Ok @Mark Masiel I'll bite. Look at the cash flow as a percent of the revenue or expenses. Rounding off, you have about 400/8000 or 5%. A 5% lower rent or 5% higher expense pushes you into negative territory. I think you make @Ben Leybovich point because the spreadsheet is just a calculation. The real world doesnt care what the spreadsheet (no matter how pretty) promised. And in the real world a 5% variability is not just likely, it is certain. So suddenly your 17% "return" turns into a 20% loss. Just like that. Thats the problem with very high leverage. This investor is almost certain to lose money on the deal. Unless of course he is betting on appreciation or can substantially increase income or slash expenses.

  • Consultant · Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2015 · 122 posts · 34 votes
    11y

    @Ben Leybovich I'm not sure I understand your original post.

    Are you saying that the results of the calculator are incorrect? Is it that the outputs are misleading or that new folks don't know enough to figure out what to use as inputs?

    I'm kinda new still but I thought all the calculator did was take inputs and calculate income, cash flow, returns, etc. And it's up to the person using the tool to decide if the results mean it's a good deal or not.

    Also if someone who is about to do a $650k deal doesn't know enough to interpret the results of the calculator, I'm not sure denying them access to the calculator would stop them from doing the deal.

  • Lima, Lima · Member since 2014 · 59 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    Ok, I get it, the margin is small for a big property. But you are still only in 30K. I would have assumed that one  month vacancy was put into the expenses, as well as other expenses such as cap so that the margin is fairly realistic and a 5 percent hit off rent might not be the end of the world.   Now if you look at this yearly:

    expenses are 90, 720

    Income is 95,700

    Lets say you have the 5 percent hit that you didn't factor in through cap expenses, etc-

    income is now 90, 915 

    I don't see where the 20 percent loss comes in. It wouldn't be a good year, but you could get a 5 percent increase as well another year plus you are getting equity built. We know the property is a bit overpriced but we don't know how much it is.

    I am not arguing here I am trying to learn. What am I doing wrong in this calculation? I did not use a spreadsheet by the way! And again, I am assuming the numbers Ben supplied was income after all the other deductions Bigger Pockerts favors occurred.

    Finally, I cannot seem to use the @ feature. I have a Spanish keyboard and this feature does not seem to function.

  • Real Estate Investor · Milford, PA · Member since 2014 · 395 posts · 299 votes
    11y

    @Mark Masiel Mark type the @ symbol then the name of the person you are mentioning. No space between @ and name. The name will pop up on the bottom left of the post box. Click the name and presto. It took me close to a month before I figured it out. 

  • Lima, Lima · Member since 2014 · 59 posts · 11 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

     I think you make @Ben Leybovich point because the spreadsheet is just a calculation.

    Really? My question has nothing to do with using the calculator which is just a tool. I didn't understand his post or wording very well and the numbers did not make sense to me, that's why I asked questions. And if you think about it, the calculator forced the investor to ask questions. Isn't that a good thing? His point is that us newbies should go nowhere near a real estate spreadsheet.

    But... if his point is that newbies aren't supposed to ask questions and that we are supposed to know everything already, then yeah, he got me! LOL...

  • Real Estate Investor · Milford, PA · Member since 2014 · 395 posts · 299 votes
    11y

    @Ben Leybovich I think it's a coin toss on newbies and calculators. I absolutely think it's a great idea to be able to do the numbers without one. You should know how and why things work before doing it the "quick" way. 

    I go through this all the time with my kids. They want to know why they can't use a calculator to do their math homework. My response is you have to understand the process first.  

    As a noob myself I would love to see a very in depth post or webinar on how it all works. I will even volunteer to do some of the leg work to make it happen, if that will lighten the load.

    On a side note (as it sorta relates to this)

    @Brandon Turner thanks for recommending What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Cash Flow... And 36 Other Key Financial Measures By Frank Gallinelli I am looking over it presently and have found it to be very helpful.

  • Real Estate Investor · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2015 · 110 posts · 71 votes
    11y

    Finally, a post that exposes the potential dangers of "free tools/stuff" with no or little guidance.

    I have to agree with @Ben Leybovich that these types of tools should be taught first and given out second. Without doing so could create a false sense of security and Real Estate is more than just a few numbers on a spreadsheet or some fancy acronyms like NOI, GOI, COC, NPV, IRR, ROI, EGI, OER, etc.

    Spreadsheets are no different then books in my opinion. Yes, both may contain valuable information but the timing of said information may not be right for the individual using or reading the information. You can read a book, "feel" like you know what was being addressed but then do it all wrong, if at all, in the end. You can plug some numbers into a spreadsheet and read the results but are the numbers accurate to begin with (crap in = crap out) and do you actually know what each number or field represents in the first place? You can listen to a podcast and even take notes on the information, but is that going to be enough?

    No one can cover everything on a single webinar, podcast or a book regarding any one strategy as the moving parts, and required baseline knowledge, is sometimes over looked and furthermore could be assumed that one would have had that base knowledge before reading, watching or listening to the material offered.

    Who is there to guide you to what you may have missed (information wise - like pre-requisites) or where you need to go next?

    As I have seen through many posts on here and elsewhere, some people should not be doing what they are attempting to do because they are not ready to do so. Yet with everyone giving their 2 cents, and I too am guilty of that, sometimes they never learn properly.

    People give them links to other posts to read..but do they read them? People suggest a book...but who holds them accountable to read it? People suggest a spreadsheet...but is that same person following up with them to determine they know how to use the spreadsheet? People suggest a podcast or webinar and then give guidance surrounded around that podcast or webinar...but who is there to make sure that person views the material related to the suggestion or opinion offered?

    I see and use Forums like this, and others, as an opportunity to collaborate with and expand upon a pre-existing formal knowledge of the Industry or strategy...not as a starting point into an industry. I tend to "chime in" on topics I am educated in and experienced with...not just throw out some opinions based on a Google search, a book I read or an article I looked over and so forth. I read posts to broaden my knowledge which affords me the opportunity to determine if the information is in the "ball park" to begin with because I already have some baseline understanding and am simply looking for a little nugget to make it all click to me.

    That, in my opinion, is what makes BP valuable (at least to me)...the networking of the educated and experienced individuals on the platform.

    But when you have no idea and come to a forum looking to start your journey, that's where I think the issues could creep in. It would take someone months if not years to go over all of the posts/podcasts, then try to decipher what is good info and what is not so good info through even more off-line research and by the time it's all said and done may only end up with pieces to a large puzzle sitting out on a dining room table.

    There is a reason that School Kids are taught by people, in a structured format with curriculum objectives, held accountable for assignments and not simply put into a classroom with podcasts playing, books on a shelf and spreadsheets on the desk and told.."Good Luck!" The Human in us desires a Coach, Teacher, Mentor, Partner or Instructor to validate the information being received within the material, to be able to then bounce the information off of others with related knowledge (BP can assist with this aspect for sure) and finally to be held accountable to turn that information into action which should result in positive growth (and even higher income/profits as related to a career or business venture).

    Now I know, everyone can see or not see value in investing money to obtain a foundation or even an advanced knowledge taught by practicing professional instructors in the area related to the information sought, but why don't we complain about those same investments into an Accredited College for a paper degree which is suppose to have you prepared for the "Real World" experiences that come afterwards and sometimes fall short?

    The relation is no different...you go to school to get that foundation education and then it's up to you to expand upon your knowledge with additional research and resources and ultimately take some form of action. Educational Systems that have a clear learning path of instruction (curriculum per-say) and cover, without bias or prejudice, a variety of aspects within the Industry should be embraced and not bashed as I have seen in forums across the spectrum IMHO.

    Webinars, Forums, Books, Podcasts and Spreadsheets all have their place in the knowledge arena, as when you stop looking for knowledge you are pretty much done, yet I do question the timing of each in an individual’s learning curve.

    Now I know there are individuals that don't believe Real Estate can be a risky business, and I tend to strongly disagree with those individuals, but in the end...the more you know, the more you allow yourself to grow and the more tools you have available to you when the time is right...the better off you will be in anything in the long run, not just Real Estate./

    Happy Learning!

  • Lima, Lima · Member since 2014 · 59 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    @Neil Schoepp 

    Thank You! It does work but it takes so long to load out here that I didn't notice the name on the bottom.

    Now if I can only figure out this real estate thing....

  • Real Estate Investor · Milford, PA · Member since 2014 · 395 posts · 299 votes
    11y

    @Mark Masiel Ahhhhh you'll get this real estate thing. Just keep doing what your doing. Reading and asking questions. One day it will all come together. Just don't stop. Everyday take one step forward. It doesn't matter if it is a small step or a big step as long as it's a step. 

  • David RobertsonBusiness Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2010 · 755 posts · 778 votes
    11y

    I'm going to use a bit of analogy here...

    For a real estate investor, a spreadsheet or calculator is a tool...

    Just like a skill saw is a tool for a carpenter...

    As a carpenter apprentice, you should learn the necessary 'skill sets' and 'crafts' to safely and responsibly use your carpentry tools to provide a professionally finished product for your clients.

    As a new real estate investor, one of your main 'skills sets' or 'crafts' that you should develop is the ability to analyze the financials of potential deals. 

    Using a skill saw without carpentry skills is inherently dangerous and so is using spreadsheets or tools without the appropriate education...

    FlipperForce
  • Real Estate Investor · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2015 · 110 posts · 71 votes
    11y

    @David Robertson nice plug..lol 

    Your post, though, makes sense too ;)

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