GOP vs. DEMS - Ready.......Debate

23 Replies

So in this year of the Presidential Election, I thought I would ask, which party, if they win the White House in 2016, will benefit Real Estate Investors more in the next four years, republicans or democrats and why?

I think it's to time for less politics...trump will not be dragged into the political game.  The reality is that we might be past the point if no return as country already.  All I know is that for the 55 years I've been in it, and the 37 years I've been voting, it just goes from bad to worse.  So, let's throw a completely different solution at the problem and see what the result is.  With all of the things everybody says make Trump the wrong choice, in my mind, being brutally honest and non-politically correct make him the right choice.  Doing it the other way has us just shy of 20 trillion in debt and continuing to grow a government so large that it can't get out if it's own way, let alone do anything productive.  Our national security is s complete joke, and the only thing the current administration is passionate about is taking away guns.  Trump might be a total jerk...but I bet he gets more done than the politicians we keep electing based on their empty promises ever will and it will be a whole lot more entertaining to watch.

I don't have nearly enough regulation and TRID and CFPB in my life as a mortgage lender, and all of you certainly want higher investment property interest rates and more restrictive investment property guidelines, so SANDERS ALL THE WAY BABY!

Republicans, Cruz specifically due to a 15% flat tax. Wouldn't it be nice if the government didn't influence our investments. The government will never reduce deficit spending. They have to spend into oblivion to stay ahead of the service of the debt. Imagine what the current market would look like if the fed wasn't pegged @0% and the base currency hadn't experienced a 400% increase. The Dems would be a complete nightmare. What difference does it make if they drive markets up by making money cheap and investments more profitable, if they want to take half in April?

> Cruz specifically due to a 15% flat tax.

The executive branch does not make laws. When was the last time a candidate's grandiose legislative budget proposal actually made it into law?

The closest I can think of is Obamacare, which actually ended up resembling what Hillary promised to do during the primaries more than it did what Obama proposed (individual mandate was a big Hillary promise). So all the people that voted Obama in the primary because they liked his healthcare proposal (no mandate) better than Hillary's (yes mandate)... whoops!

Going to laugh my butt off if Hillary now turns around and proposes to reform/fix/whatever the individual mandate portion of Obamacare. 

Anyways, back to flat 15%: Would it be good for real estate if landlords lost those tax incentives to improve and maintain their properties? I kind of think it's (arguably) a good thing that landlords get tax write-offs for maintenance/improvements to their portfolio. We've got a nominal base tax rate on rental income way higher than 15%, but you have the option of picking your effective actual tax rate on rental income by spending as much (or as little) of that rental income on improving and maintaining your property as you wish!

Mysterious things can happen when one party has control of both branches. While the president may not directly enact tax policy, it is common to submit to Congress a proposal, which is where having the majority is beneficial. I would be fine with 15% tax on rental income. I'd forego the benefits of a small tax savings in this area, so I may choose where and how I invest ( outside of buy/hold), without the fear of punitive taxes. So in summary a straight 15% sounds peachy.

Originally posted by @Richard McDonald :

> Mysterious things can happen when one party has control of both branches.

 But they rarely do actually happen.

> While the president may not directly enact tax policy, it is common to submit to Congress a proposal, which is where having the majority is beneficial. 

And then the proposal is going to go into the sausage factory, and your "flat 15%" is going to come out the other end so garbled, unflat, and mangled, that I suspect the lesson learned will have been to focus on congressional and senatorial races if what we care about is some specific legislation. 

EDIT: A hypothetical Pres Cruz will not be there in the halls of congress swatting away lobbyists and one-issue-legislators that are trying to un-flatten the tax with exceptions being traded for votes. I could be wrong, but I think the odds of said proposed legislation coming out the other end still anywhere close to 'flat' are about the same as the odds of your section 8 tenant volunteering to paint the exterior of the home they are living in using their own paint and for free because they want to live in a place they are proud to call home.

@Charlie Fitzgerald , While many of us will agree the size of government is way out of control, the question you really have to ask yourself is whose fault is it; the Dems who want to give everything free to everyone possible to secure their votes for eternity or the Repubs who have the spines that are roughly equivalent to jellyfish. Frankly I blame them both equally, which is why I think you suggest to try something new, and I couldn't agree more, but allow me to redirect slightly. What I am really hoping to get at here is not who we should elect, that really could get ugly on here, but rather, based upon whoever wins, what are likely to be the effects on markets important to REI. Will interests rates go up or down, will property values stagnate or go through the roof, will unemployment explode, will tax changes make it better or worse for REI, etc. etc. etc. Any additional thoughts from you or others on this topic would be appreciated.

@Chris M. - LOL, love the sarcasm and analogies.  Hell, I would love it my tenants, who are NOT section 8 BTW would just clean and sweep once a month, good luck on the paint job!

@Darren Budahn , I have thought that all along ever since he announced and continue to even now as well, but the poll numbers still don't seem to indicate that and the electorate is so upset with the status quo, we might just all be surprised. But the real question here is what happens if he does get elected somehow? How do markets respond and how will it impact REI?

@Chris M., I'd say if there would be anything we can take away from seven years of the Obama presidency, it is that strange things do happen. The Gip ran on a platform of 30% reduction and received 25%. If it where altered it wouldn't likey be altered to the disadvantage of investors. I admit it will be next to impossible to get Congress to stop the cycle of subsidizing the low income bracket with negative effective tax rates, but as I said strange things do happen. The 74k pages of tax code are absurd. The flat tax solves many issues at once. The problem with the focus on congressional races is that we still get gifts the Omnibus bill. What we have now is the potential for a perfect storm scenario with fiscal conservative majorities and the potential of an actual conservative Republican, not a progressive Republican like "W" or trump. While we maymay disagree here, I'm sure we will agree about whom will be the worst candidate for REI.

Cory, interest rates will go up, unrelated to who the potus is. The Fed must attempt to maintain some form of inflation, even though every market indicator is deflationary. QE(pick a number, there will be more to come) has put the nails in the coffin of the dollar. The problem with the government as currently demonstrated is that both Democrats and Republicans are progressives. We need a true conservative. The US is in a housing bubble, bond bubble, student loan bubble, and stock market bubble. Who can fix that?

Originally posted by @Cory Mccarthy :

@Darren Budahn , I have thought that all along ever since he announced and continue to even now as well, but the poll numbers still don't seem to indicate that and the electorate is so upset with the status quo, we might just all be surprised. But the real question here is what happens if he does get elected somehow? How do markets respond and how will it impact REI?

 The poll numbers being looked at now are mostly for GOP primaries, however. 

In the general election, he's going to have to race back to the center to pick up "undecided" and "not GOP enough to vote in the GOP primary" votes. He's going to have to find a way to posture himself to appeal to those voters in the context of having said a bunch of weird nonsense that will not work in a general election.

He's going to have to say things like "I think we should strengthen the border fence, maybe, and provide due process for people allegedly here illegally to ensure we don't deport the wrong people" and then answer to 'undecided voters' asking "Hey dude, 2 months ago you said we were going to build a mega-wall, make Mexico pay for it, and instantly deport millions of people, and all this other extreme stuff. How did we get from that to 'maybe, but only if we have lots of due process'?"

It really doesnt matter who wins. Life will go on either way.  There will always be some things that are good to invest in, other things that are over inflated...and really very little of that is influenced by who is president.  I have a lot of friends who work in different facets of government on both sides of the aisle, and on each side they seen delusional in different ways.  

@Russell Brazil , Delusional is a perfect way to describe most of our politicians these days, that's for sure.  Agree that there will always be something to invest, we just may to work a little harder or look a little more thoroughly.  Thanks for chiming in.

@Cory Mccarthy I blame the voters. Fit not having the ability to see that we are all getting zero return for our votes and continuing to elect the professional politicians (of all political parties) that keep saying what we want to hear to get out vote and then once elected do whatever the hell they want to do or have to do to keep their puppet string pullers happy.  Interest rates are going to go up because they have to.  It won't matter if s republican or democrat gets elected into the White House.  The big issue to our future in America is not low rates or high rates.  The big issue is security and solvency as a nation.  Neither of which we have. 

Some forums have a politard specific subforum where this kind of thread can be contained. It would benefit BP to do this. Some of these "Oohh I'm a libtard vs. oohh I'm a facist" debates can never be resolved and have no benefit to those of us who simply want to make money in RE.