How will this election affect real estate?
Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2016 · 221 posts · 134 votes
I am reading headlines about the market plunging worldwide due to the likelihood of a Trump win. What could this mean for real estate? Is anyone holding off on buying until things settle down a bit? Any reason to be spooked right now?
@Steven Picker You are right jobs will come back from overseas when the unions are out of business. The union is the ones that drove the business out of the USA.
Um, no - it was tax incentives which drove the exporting of jobs. Corporations were told, "put Americans out of work and we'll lower your tax liability". Not sure what they were thinking - if middle class Americans aren't working, how can they continue to be the backbone of the income tax system?
Unions protect blue collar workers. If when you were growing up your family's main bread winner was blue-collar and you did not live in public housing or a carton under an overpass or in a rail yard, thank a union. My Mom died in her own home / bed thanks to my Dad's UAW pension survivor benefit. God knows where she'd have been otherwise - probably with me, which would have been interesting considering I was out of work most of her 98th year.
Unions aren't the ones harming this country or its work force. Get REAL clear on that!
If the market tanks - who EVER wins - that's the time to mortgage the farm and buy the kitchen sink!
Average consumers "buy high and sell low" because they don't understand how this stuff works.
Entrepreneurs get it right and "sell low, but buy even lower".
Not sure just now who said it (Warren Buffet?), but (I paraphrase) be bold when others are fearful, and be cautious when others are bold.
Along those same lines David, I was wondering if it is worthwhile to wait, since the market seems high currently to see if prices drop drastically. Like if a property is worth 100k today and in 6 months it's only worth 70k, I will kick myself for buying at the top of the market. Although I guess there is nothing like a mistake to buy some good education.
Fearful & greedy were Buffet's words, but yes, you nailed the concept! The winter season (RE low) & a Trump win could signal the optimum time to strike. Did you see how far the Dow plummeted? More than after 9/11!
I smell a buying opportunity in the stock market, and hoping the RE market follows.
We have a REO President. Millions of dollars will come back from overseas, jobs will increase Dodd---Frank and over regulated loan and banking laws will be thrown out .What is not to like if your are real estate investor ?
@Steven Picker You are right jobs will come back from overseas when the unions are out of business. The union is the ones that drove the business out of the USA.
Um, no - it was tax incentives which drove the exporting of jobs. Corporations were told, "put Americans out of work and we'll lower your tax liability". Not sure what they were thinking - if middle class Americans aren't working, how can they continue to be the backbone of the income tax system?
Unions protect blue collar workers. If when you were growing up your family's main bread winner was blue-collar and you did not live in public housing or a carton under an overpass or in a rail yard, thank a union. My Mom died in her own home / bed thanks to my Dad's UAW pension survivor benefit. God knows where she'd have been otherwise - probably with me, which would have been interesting considering I was out of work most of her 98th year.
Unions aren't the ones harming this country or its work force. Get REAL clear on that!
Industry was not driven out. It left voluntarily to take advantage of third world labour forces. The only way to force it back is to make it extremely expensive (high trade tariffs) on overseas goods imported into the US.
In a global economy it will hurt Americans both short and long term but it will achieve what they really want.
@David Dachtera: I appreciate the role unions have played for US workers. However, unions have also screwed themselves and union members on more occasions that I can even remember. For instance, the company I work for will not allow us to bring a television into the building without having it brought in by a union member. Cost billed to our department? $300. Not for the TV. For moving the TV from the parking lot to the building and plugging it in.
Unions are neither good or bad but there are good and bad unions.
Unfortunately, unions tend to do a horrible job for their members when the industry changes. They try to protect high wages and benefits even when the cost of labor in the industry is falling. Eventually, corporations just ship the job out of the US in order to get rid of the problem or close up and fire everyone.
Of course, they do good as well. It's just that you cannot blanket claim that unions are a force of good. Just as you cannot blanket claim they are evil.
...and I take it you understand WHY those stipulations are in place?
NOT BECAUSE OF THE UNION, oddly enough, but because the company's insurance carriers have demanded it. Should some one "unqualified" (go ahead and argue that if you want, the courts have already ruled) injure themselves in the process, the company could be held both criminally and civilly liable.
The "cost of labor" is the cost of living in that locale - it is dictated by no other factors. When employees can no longer afford their housing and other living expenses, productivity suffers = profitability suffers.
People look at balance sheets and expect the numbers to continually trend upward which is a false expectation. NOTHING can spiral upward forever. Even Voyager-1 will eventually meet its demise either in interstellar space or in another star system.
Given the current levels of executive compensation, "cost of labor" is a lame argument. Balancing contribution against compensation ALWAYS falls flat in that regard. The company can survive without an individual C-level - production, marketing, billing and receivables roll merrily on - because THAT is the company's bread and butter, not anything individual C-levels do - they do not "out-value" the hundreds of hourly people their compensation represents.
If you can show me where I made a blanket statement, I will gladly concede that point.
@David Dachtera: While insurance may be partially responsible, it certainly doesn't explain why I can carry any non-electrical piece of equipment into the building. Yes, I can carry a 200 lb box of dodads into the building and nobody has a problem but if there's an electrical cord attached, better get a union guy.
Blanket Statement: "Unions aren't the ones harming this country or its work force"
There are good unions and bad unions. Do I think electricians should receive fair compensation for their work? Yes. Do I think it takes an electrician to plug in a television? No.
Don't get me wrong. I support unions and I think they've played an important role in protecting worker's rights. I also believe that some unions use their role in an abusive way.
I don't think you can say that unions don't harm the work force without taking it on a case by case basis. There are plenty of examples where unions overplayed their hand and a company simply decided to move operations overseas which left workers with $0 paycheck rather than a smaller paycheck.
In fact, look at the Trump Taj. That one boggles my mind because casino is dying in AC. Too many competitors, nobody wants to go all the way down to AC to gamble when there are alternatives much closer (and a movement to allow casinos in northern NJ), the city is decaying, etc, etc. Icahn comes in and right off the bat everyone smelt money and the utilities and everybody come after him trying to collect, then the unions, etc. So Icahn just closed the place down.
Union protesters were claiming right up to the day they put chains on the doors that there's no way they would just close it down and it was all a negotiating tactic by the casino. But they did close. And now everyone is out of work.
I'm not sure what it was about the previous 3 casinos in AC closing and rumors of other casinos bailing on AC that gave the unions the idea that there was any meat on the bone but they misplayed their hand poorly.
Perhaps it's simply a difference of opinion but I think having no job is more harmful than having a job at a lower wage. If you feel differently then perhaps this is the point of contention and we'll have to agree to disagree.
People who can no longer pay their bills might disagree about the lower wage vs no job thing. Being tied to a low-wage job and being strung along by that employer is today's form of slavery.
Negotiations don't change the cost of living, change the terms of mortgages, shorten commute distances, make family members stop eating or needing clothing and shelter, ...
Taking on employees means taking ona responsibility. Too many employers view employees as disposable. Job security these days is an oxymoron.
Unions remind employers of their responsibilities. That doesn't stop employers from acting irresponsibly, but it does point out the error of their ways.
So long as people are not valued as such in the work place, these issues will continue.
@David Dachtera I agree unions were created to protect the middle class. Using "cost of labor" by management is an easy excuse to reduce costs.
But @Bill R. pointed out, some unions have indeed made the costs of labor unbearable and made America uncompetitive. Together with red tape and regulations.
A lot of people don't understand globalization. Ultimately everyone just wants to know "what is it in for me?" and hear what the candidates are saying to them. Whether it is true or not. e.g. I want to buy that cheap 80 inch TV while getting paid $15-$25 per hr flipping burgers.
Ultimately we live in a free market society. People choose where they want to work, and what they want to get paid for. I disagree comparing low wages to slave labor. Everyone has a choice. Free market also dictates the ridiculously high salaries for executive. Companies are willing to pay top dollar for talents! Just like how they choose to lower their overall costs.
If Trump starts placing high tariffs on overseas goods like @Thomas S.. Having a president who made his money in business and real estate is certainly exciting for us as real estate investors. How is his business acumen going to translate into economical gains for EVERYONE in America will be interesting.
His unpredictability may be the greatest asset, or liability. We shall see.
@David Dachtera: Listen, if you can't even admit that some unions can be poorly run and end up causing more harm than good, no point even discussing.
Again - show me where I said otherwise ...
@David Dachtera I agree unions were created to protect the middle class. Using "cost of labor" by management is an easy excuse to reduce costs.
But @Bill R. pointed out, some unions have indeed made the costs of labor unbearable and made America uncompetitive. Together with red tape and regulations.
A lot of people don't understand globalization. Ultimately everyone just wants to know "what is it in for me?" and hear what the candidates are saying to them. Whether it is true or not. e.g. I want to buy that cheap 80 inch TV while getting paid $15-$25 per hr flipping burgers.
Ultimately we live in a free market society. People choose where they want to work, and what they want to get paid for. I disagree comparing low wages to slave labor. Everyone has a choice. Free market also dictates the ridiculously high salaries for executive. Companies are willing to pay top dollar for talents! Just like how they choose to lower their overall costs.
If Trump starts placing high tariffs on overseas goods like @Thomas S.. Having a president who made his money in business and real estate is certainly exciting for us as real estate investors. How is his business acumen going to translate into economical gains for EVERYONE in America will be interesting.
His unpredictability may be the greatest asset, or liability. We shall see.
The costs of living wages are NEVER unbearable unless the business's management is incompetent, greedy or both. Whether you're talking about the sale of goods and services or wages paid, the numbers are always "what the market will bear". You can't blame that unions or anyone else.
Business acumen means nothing when you make your country the laughingstock of world.
I never blame unions or anyone. It's a function of free market. It is management's job to ALWAYS turn a profit. Now whether they're greedy or incompetent, everyone's entitled to their opinions.
But if management keeps screwing employees, you can sure bet their top employees will keep leaving and they will have issues trying to attract the good ones. Again, the function of free market.
I'm not a fan of Trump's victory, and you're right. The US is a laughing stock of the world. But the election is final. And it's an election for the Americans, not for the rest of the world.
It's time to get together and move on.
Here is an interesting read.
thanks for sharing @Kurt K.
Like the author mentioned
The election is “going to absolutely create a short-term uncertainty like Brexit,” says Harris. “But in the long run, I think everything will be fine.”
I was reading another article on msn; I didn't even pay attention to what "drain the swamp" means until now.
"The US is a laughing stock of the world."
1) That is nothing more than the propaganda the Democrats wanted everyone to believe to dissuade folks from voting for Trump - an utterly failed attempt to intimidate those who might have been inclined to vote Trump, but it simply didn't work Full Stop.
2) I've been all over the world many many times and I can assure you that no one is laughing, In fact, most foreign leaders went out of their way very quickly to congratulate Trump, and copiously so (including the Presidents of Mexico and China - the two countries with the most reason to potentially despise him). Exceedingly smart move on their part, for those foolhardy enough to have spoken poorly of him now sit in a very precarious position where their own existence is at stake.
3) Regardless of what anyone thinks we (the US) still wield more power around the globe than nearly all of the other countries in the world combined, and you would be the fool of fools to ignore that and would do so at your own imminent peril.
4) I'm not a Trump supporter and I have reservations about how he will govern, but simply parroting lines that come straight from the Democratic Party's Political Hit Manual doesn't serve any purpose but to perpetuate such tripe. The Democrats tried to say the same things about Reagan and they all lived to regret it mightily.
5) I would agree on one point - that the decision has been made and we now move forward to make this as successful as we can as a nation. I think there is reason for cautious optimism, but only time will tell how Trump ultimately governs.
1. No, this is coming from international leaders and their country's press / media. Sorry - no propaganda here. No Faux Noise filtering, either.
2. Wow! You've been around the world since last week? Amazing! Also, I wasn't aware that Trump was a mafioso and that people speak against him at their own peril. I thought the 1st Amendment was still in full force ... or is his full name Kim Donald Trump of the DPRK?
3. Not sure where you got that garbage.
4. Nope, not doing that either. Here - here's some Kool-Aid.
5. Have some more Kool-Aid ... Civil War has happened before - it can happen again. You've probably been living blissfully unaware of a movement known as The New Revolution. You may want to research it ...
1. No, this is coming from international leaders and their country's press / media. Sorry - no propaganda here. No Faux Noise filtering, either.
2. Wow! You've been around the world since last week? Amazing! Also, I wasn't aware that Trump was a mafioso and that people speak against him at their own peril. I thought the 1st Amendment was still in full force ... or is his full name Kim Donald Trump of the DPRK?
3. Not sure where you got that garbage.
4. Nope, not doing that either. Here - here's some Kool-Aid.
5. Have some more Kool-Aid ... Civil War has happened before - it can happen again. You've probably been living blissfully unaware of a movement known as The New Revolution. You may want to research it ...
1) Wrong again. Haven't you figured out that the Country's Press / Media has been (with very few exceptions) in the Democratic party's pocket for years - the New York Times (biased story teller in chief) just did a mea cupla on the subject today - promising it would never do it again - yeah sure
Name your foreign leaders and provide their post election cites/quotes, or are these just more lies from the liars in chief
2) I've been around the world enough times to know that what the intolerant left represents as the opinions of foreign leaders is almost without exception total garbage. It represents nothing more than their totally cheap self serving spin.
3) Wow what a thoughtful, analytical and compelling response - durrrrrrrrrrrrr
4) Ditto
5) More on the Kool-Aid uh - that sounds about your speed. No I don't need to read up on the New Revolution, we just had a real one in case you missed it. :)
and what was the initial question? Wow
How do we profit as investors? More jobs means more tenants or home buyers .What we have more houses or apartment buildings built . We do more flips ?
I just signed the order and a bill of lading for a whole tank truck of Kool-Aid for you. Should be there the end of next week.