Americans Are Ditching These Five States In Record Numbers

Riverside, CA · Member since 2017 · 412 posts · 296 votes

Apparently surging violent crime, massive tax hikes and insolvent public pensions are bad for attracting new residents...who knew? On the other hand, 364 days of sunshine per year, minimal crime, brand new infrastructure and some of the lowest tax rates in the country seems to be, to our complete shock, somewhat appealing to folks looking to relocate.

But that is just a couple of many interesting takeaways to be gleaned from the latest annual "U.S. Migration Report" from North American Moving Services which found that Illinois was the most ditched state in 2017.

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member

Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes

this has been going on for decades.. Oregon is the number one in migration of CA residents.. I is one.

but I is not going to go to NV were there is not state income tax. LOL.

and people have been leaving the northern cold states for warm states in a reverse migration for the last 40 years as well..

CA will be just fine.. you cannot have all the jobs and economy there and the best weather literally in the world.. and some of the finest young minds in the world.. just not going to fall off a cliff for all those that leave you have others coming in to replace.

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Anthony GaydenPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
8y
Well this shouldn't surprise anyone who has lived in Arizona. There are a lot of people fleeing high cost California for the state.
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Brent M.
Investor · Hayward, CA · Member since 2015 · 83 posts · 72 votes
8y
Wait till their pensions start failing....
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Roger DiRuscio
Real Estate Broker · Fremont, CA · Member since 2010 · 2 posts · 3 votes
8y
There have always been families relocating, I am in CA and there are not many vacant homes. After 40 years in this business, I have never been this busy.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
8y
this has been going on for decades.. Oregon is the number one in migration of CA residents.. I is one.
but I is not going to go to NV were there is not state income tax. LOL.
and people have been leaving the northern cold states for warm states in a reverse migration for the last 40 years as well..
CA will be just fine.. you cannot have all the jobs and economy there and the best weather literally in the world.. and some of the finest young minds in the world.. just not going to fall off a cliff for all those that leave you have others coming in to replace.
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Cara Lonsdale
Realtor and Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
@Jay Hinrichs is right. Many of those states will continue to thrive and repopulate even with any type of mass exodus.
I activated my RE license in CA from 2004 -2008 so that I could take advantage of the Californians coming to AZ (back then we netted about 92K Californians per year). Even at the height of the market, AZ prices were WAY cheaper than CA.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
8y
@Cara Lonsdale with the changing demographics in CA compared to when I was born there .. that state will self populate itself it does not need in migration.. that's why the population keeps rising.
when I was growing up in the late 50's and early 60s I was a rare individual that was a Californian.. in those days everyone was from somewhere but not CA.
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Shiloh LundahlPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Gilbert, AZ · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
8y
I agree with what has been said about Arizona and California. I see a lot of people moving out of California, but at the same time, I see just as many people moving to California, or at least near where in live in Burbank. I also still see a lot of people moving to Arizona.
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Ryan Heywood
St. Helena, CA · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 59 votes
8y
Having just visited family that relocated from the Bay Area to Phoenix I can understand the appeal. That said, what struck me most was the impression of a city that will soon develop issues similar to Los Angeles. The Smog was pretty bad and the traffic situation seemed painful. The potential for water issues are also something to note. That said, prices seemed decent. Only the me will tell.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Ryan Heywood:

Having just visited family that relocated from the Bay Area to Phoenix I can understand the appeal. That said, what struck me most was the impression of a city that will soon develop issues similar to Los Angeles. The Smog was pretty bad and the traffic situation seemed painful. The potential for water issues are also something to note. That said, prices seemed decent. Only the me will tell.
you stay in wine country that's one of the best places on the planet.. I lived at silveardo for 10 years :) although traffic in the valley is nothing to sneaze at.. getting through AM CAN is a joke these days.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Chinmay J.:

Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Apparently surging violent crime, massive tax hikes and insolvent public pensions are bad for attracting new residents...who knew? On the other hand, 364 days of sunshine per year, minimal crime, brand new infrastructure and some of the lowest tax rates in the country seems to be, to our complete shock, somewhat appealing to folks looking to relocate.
But that is just a couple of many interesting takeaways to be gleaned from the latest annual "U.S. Migration Report" from North American Moving Services which found that Illinois was the most ditched state in 2017.
Red states vs Blue States... Enough said...
Who would want to live in the Socialist Republic of California anymore is beyond me. Yes, the weather is great.. But so does Cuba (has good weather)
well you kind of have to live there to understand it.. but in a nut shell ... Ocean Tahoe Lala land Yosemite desert Redwoods , wine country Silicon Valley SF it goes on and on. .. 1/3 of the state is federal forest or BLM land plenty of room to roam..
now if you had to live in Compton or watts I get it .. but if you have money .. CA is a pretty great place to live..
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Account Closed
OP
Riverside, CA · Member since 2017 · 412 posts · 296 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Cara Lonsdale:

@Jay Hinrichs is right. Many of those states will continue to thrive and repopulate even with any type of mass exodus.
I activated my RE license in CA from 2004 -2008 so that I could take advantage of the Californians coming to AZ (back then we netted about 92K Californians per year). Even at the height of the market, AZ prices were WAY cheaper than CA.
It isn't just the property price differences. The new Tax Law with 199A Deductions makes highly taxed states like California, Illinois and New York far less appealing.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
8y
@Account Closed I agree if your very high wage earner and or going to retire.. I know I am making a move for those reasons out of Oregon.. same thing here.. super high income tax.. with no write off now what I save just in income tax moving to a no income tax state will pay for the home I bought in cash in 5 years.
but not every one can just move and make their income in another state .. but retirees that still make good money will defiantly think about it.. I know I am. but I am also going to buy a fishing cabin up north of Tahoe just not going to live there more than 4 months.. cant find those places like many other places in the US that are just so darn appealing on a out door activity basis and surrounded by national forest.. its not bad in CA really.
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Al D.
Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2017 · 303 posts · 327 votes
8y
I have to take any one source of information with a grain of salt. Reporting live from my own little California bubble - a burb in the SF Bay Area. I work in Silicon Valley. I don’t know about the rest of the state. But: I work with numerous people who are from somewhere else (Alabama, Ontario, State of Washington, Sweden, Italy, China, Southern California, etc.) They all moved to where they are today for the job. And it’s not your average-paying jobs. I have seen our freeways get wider over the decades, yet traffic get worse (one can argue that it’s just same amount of people who are now commuting longer distances because they cannot afford to live close to their jobs. This argument is correct, but there are also so many new developments that sell out quickly in the Bay Area proper that I wouldn’t make this argument myself.) I have a neighbor who bought their house “sight-unseen” from China before moving here permanently. People are clearly moving into my little bubble. I’ve also lost friends to Texas. Some moved to the (cheaper) Sacramento (still California) area. Some moved from there closer to their (better-paying) jobs in the Bay Area. The overall state population is still growing, according to government figures. Remember the Rules: location, location, location. (All real estate is local.)
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Terry Miller
Akron, OH · Member since 2015 · 178 posts · 189 votes
8y
The stats are interesting, but don't Chicken Little about them automatically. One has to see how they affect your business strategies.
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Jefferson Smith
Portland, OR · Member since 2017 · 107 posts · 27 votes
8y
Net migration data would be helpful.
(California has been near the top in incoming and outgoing in many different years. Interested in what net is now of CA and elsewhere.)
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Merv Screeton
Roseville, CA · Member since 2017 · 21 posts · 25 votes
8y
Roseville Ca is growing very fast. Roseville has great schools and is close to Tahoe, San Francisco and the ocean. There were zero homicides in the entire year of 2017 and the city and county are fiscally conservative. The city also has its own powerplant with rates lower than surrounding areas. I'm not native to California but it has been very good to my family despite the faults. California is expensive but I wouldn't be here if it wasn't a place that makes financial sense. The money I make here outweighs tax advantages of other states. It makes complete sense for some people to mover but each situation is unique. I may move out when I'm completely retired and have no more use for the economy here.
I will be downgrading in weather just about anywhere I move to. I have lived in 2 other countries and a bunch of states and our weather is the best I have lived in.
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Omar Khan
Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
@Account Closed and others have pointed out this has been going on for decades. My dad went to school in Berkeley in the 70s and even then people were leaving California to go to cheaper places. On the other hand, a ton of people were going to California (and some of the other states you mentioned) for better jobs, better schools (debatable but Univ. of California is considered one of the better school systems) and better overall prospects.
Add in the glorious SoCal weather, the sheer amount of entertainment options (you can go skiiing to the beach in a few hours) and allure of living in California (I can attest to the last one as a non-American), and Cali isn't going anywhere, anytime soon.
A ton of people on these forums tend to dump on California, NY and Washington as expensive, high-taxed states. But #s don't lie. These economies are part of a select group that are powering the US economic engine.
On a side note, my sister and brother-in-law, work in the Silicon Valley. A miracle would have to happen for them to move.
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Keith Jourdan
Property Manager · Metro Detroit, MI · Member since 2008 · 305 posts · 362 votes
8y
2017 was the first year since 2001 that Michigan did not lose population https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.detroitnews.com/amp/108776928
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Sam Josh
Sunnyvale , CA · Member since 2017 · 373 posts · 362 votes
8y
Frankly if California did not see any outbound movement, we would have a crisis because this place is bursting at the seams given the tech boom and the migration of people from other states and especially other countries. So if people are choosing to move out it’s not a bad thing. I’d think states like Florida and Arizona which are traditionally strong hubs for retirees will see inbound migration for many more years given that baby boomers are retiring in droves now.
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Shawn Q.
Rental Property Investor · Champaign, IL · Member since 2015 · 146 posts · 80 votes
8y
Also the methodology on the study seems a bit thin. No way of telling if these numbers are just from their company, or aggregated from somewhere else. And really the number in this case doesn't matter. They're tracking who is paying to move in and out of the state. What you really need to worry about is overall population growth/decline and household formation.
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Matt Mason
Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2013 · 231 posts · 260 votes
8y
Of course this only takes into account people already in the country, while ignoring immigrants. You’d get a different story by not ignoring immigrants and overall population growth is a more accurate indicator of things. Just the fact that Washington is in red illustrates this. Seattle is booming like no other place and had the biggest price increase of any city I believe last year. A lot of foreign born tech workers though. This is why NY, SF, Seattle, DC, and LA are called “The Gateway Cities”.
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Liz C.
Property Manager · New York, NY · Member since 2016 · 388 posts · 90 votes
8y
I see everyone is talking about California , what do you guys think of New York and New Jersey market?
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Lawrence Henkel III
Rental Property Investor · Ypsilanti, MI · Member since 2015 · 70 posts · 39 votes
8y
I’m happy to stay in Michigan where the fresh water is. Warm weather is nice and I will definitely come visit it during the brutal winter but I cannot imagine living where water is scarce.
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Xin Jin
Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2016 · 27 posts · 18 votes
8y
Just like anything else, the population and movement of people fluctuate with the local economy. When the dot com bubble burst in 2000/2001, the traffic in the SF Bay Area got a lot better because a lot of "mercenaries" left. Right now, the traffic around here is worse than ever. It would be nice if more people left because the infrastructure cannot handle how many people we have. The system/market has a way of balancing things out.
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Jake Harris
Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2015 · 34 posts · 24 votes
8y
These statistics are very true on a macro level but does that mean that Roseville CA or Detroit MI on a micro level aren't experiencing growth. As far as Roger being busier than ever that has more to do with a supply and demand issue. There are less agents than in the past, there are more buyers and less inventory. Even though he is busier than ever the state can still have a net population decrease as the article mentions. Just remember location really matters in real estate, what is going on in a micro level is often times more important than a macro level report.
cheers
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