Tricks to asses the probability an auction.com property goes

[Kevin B.]

There is a property I am interested in from auction.com in San Diego.

I am considering booking a flight since I live out of state and I know auctions are often canceled so I am worried about wasting the effort.

On the other hand, this is the most interesting property I have found in the three years I have been watching.

To give everyone a sense, I would go to the auction if the odds are greater than 10% that I will have a chance to bid. 

Are there any tricks or techniques to estimate this probability? 

[Dan H.]

I recently looked at a San Diego tax lien auction.  We identified around 10 properties that we looked at and got down to 5 that we would be willing to bid on.  Only one of the 5 went to auction (we were not the winning bid).  A few of the ones we eliminated went to bid but they all had significant issues beyond rehab type issues (issues that could not be resolved).  My view is that a small percentage of properties that are normal (nothing that cannot be addressed wrong with it) make to the auction.

I do not believe there is any method to know which RE will be pulled prior to auction.  However, maybe you can infer the likelihood of the RE going to auction from my last sample but a sample of one is a small sample set.

Good luck