Top location for long distance investing?

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Top location for long distance investing?

Justin Brin

Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2023 · 165 posts · 65 votes

Here is a list of 17 metros in the US that have population larger than 900k and median house price is below 400k:

Which metro you recommend and which metro you don't recommend?

I know California is not so investor friendly due to high taxes and non landlord friendly regulation.

Florida has high insurance costs in some areas?!

What do you think?

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Ali Nichols

Investor · Member since 2022 · 235 posts · 127 votes

@Justin Brin great lead in for discussion, thanks for putting that together. Generally speaking, we have the same approach - avoid areas that are heavy in renter friendly regulation (i.e. CA). Then TX is tough right now because of property taxes. And then, Florida is difficult with insurance right now until that stabilizes.

Then, when we look at Atlanta and Charlotte we see a good amount of supply because of the footprint of large institutiional buyers (i.e. invitation homes).

That leaves the midwest (OH, IN, MO), TN, and the one off markets like Tucson and Albuquerque. Personally, we have had success in small multi-family across OK, TN, MO, KY, IN, OH.

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Robert EllisBusiness Member
Developer · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
@Justin Brin
From an overall perspective Indianapolis and Columbus have similar infrastructure and jobs but most of the talk is about the environment the governor has created. While Columbus is #2, it's the #1 state overall. Not thanks to any other market but Columbus
"
Columbus ranked #2 city in the nation for job creation and infrastructure; Ohio ranked #1 state in all of USA"
https://614now.com/2023/explore-columbus/columbus-ranked-2-c...
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Robert EllisBusiness Member
Developer · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Sandra Regnell:

@Justin Brin I just bought one in Memphis with Memphis Invest.
Anyone else here have experience with them? The sale was smooth but no renter yet.
Homes are very affordable there and Memphis Invest is turnkey with integrated property management.

I never understood the draw of negative population growth city investing. Houses are cheap because supply is more than demand. You see the same thing in Detroit where people also buy. I just came back from BP Con and spoke to a guy who lives in Detroit but would never invest there for that exact reason. Memphis more people are leaving than are coming / being born. Source below. Any insights I'd love to know what makes it attractive. In ohio turn key companies have some of the worst reputations of "lipstick on pig" type deals. houses 100 years old. one thing happens and all the cash flow is gone.
https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/local/2018/07/05...
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Douglas SkipworthBusiness Member

Rental Property Investor · Memphis, TN · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

Quote from @Robert Ellis:

Quote from @Sandra Regnell:

@Justin Brin I just bought one in Memphis with Memphis Invest.

Anyone else here have experience with them? The sale was smooth but no renter yet.

Homes are very affordable there and Memphis Invest is turnkey with integrated property management.

I never understood the draw of negative population growth city investing. Houses are cheap because supply is more than demand. You see the same thing in Detroit where people also buy. I just came back from BP Con and spoke to a guy who lives in Detroit but would never invest there for that exact reason. Memphis more people are leaving than are coming / being born. Source below. Any insights I'd love to know what makes it attractive. In ohio turn key companies have some of the worst reputations of "lipstick on pig" type deals. houses 100 years old. one thing happens and all the cash flow is gone.

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/local/2018/07/05...

Great question, Robert!

I can't speak about other markets, but in my experience the 2 biggest parts people miss about Memphis is the growth in the MSA population and the MSA GDP.

While the City of Memphis itself has stayed relative stable in population over the past 50 years, the greater MSA has grown almost 50% during that time frame (see chart below).

Also, according to the St Louis Fed, the GDP of our MSA has almost doubled over the past 20 years from $45 billion in 2002 to $80 billion in 2021.

Memphis is the cultural, political, and economic center of the MSA, which is one of the reasons investors like myself have continued to do extremely well here and most likely will continue to do so.

	Memphis City	Memphis MSA
Census	Pop.	%±	Pop.	%±
1970	623,988	25.4%	911,123	12.3%
1980	646,174	3.6%	997,844	9.5%
1990	610,337	−5.5%	1,067,263	7.0%
2000	650,100	6.5%	1,205,204	12.9%
2010	646,889	−0.5%	1,316,100	9.2%
2020	633,104	−2.1%	1,337,779	1.6%

Investor's Guide to Memphis Real Estate

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Taz Zettergren
Real Estate Agent · Memphis, TN · Member since 2019 · 365 posts · 264 votes
2y
Quote from @Justin Brin:

Quote from @Taz Zettergren:

@Justin Brin I've had a ton of success in Memphis, Little Rock, OKC and Dallas. I tend to stay south of the Mason Dixon line because the weather isn't as tough on properties. Are you investing actively or passively?

I currently do the management myself but most of the time there is not much work needed. I guess it will be 80% passively 20% active?

If you're finding the properties and managing them yourselves that's very active in my opinion but I agree with you overall it is passive when you're in high quality areas because it doesn't take too much of your time. Dallas is a great market for future growth, it's a little tougher to cash flow because of the taxes but I recommend all of my clients to invest there. Be careful with the foundations, the soil is sandier so it's common for shifting to occur which will affect the plumbing.
I'm in the Memphis market so if you're ever interested in this area don't hesitate to reach out. Best of luck investing!
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Robert EllisBusiness Member

Developer · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes

Quote from @Douglas Skipworth:

Quote from @Robert Ellis:

Quote from @Sandra Regnell:

@Justin Brin I just bought one in Memphis with Memphis Invest.

Anyone else here have experience with them? The sale was smooth but no renter yet.

Homes are very affordable there and Memphis Invest is turnkey with integrated property management.

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/local/2018/07/05...

Great question, Robert!

I can't speak about other markets, but in my experience the 2 biggest parts people miss about Memphis is the growth in the MSA population and the MSA GDP.

While the City of Memphis itself has stayed relative stable in population over the past 50 years, the greater MSA has grown almost 50% during that time frame (see chart below).

Also, according to the St Louis Fed, the GDP of our MSA has almost doubled over the past 20 years from $45 billion in 2002 to $80 billion in 2021.

Memphis is the cultural, political, and economic center of the MSA, which is one of the reasons investors like myself have continued to do extremely well here and most likely will continue to do so.

	Memphis City	Memphis MSA
Census	Pop.	%±	Pop.	%±
1970	623,988	25.4%	911,123	12.3%
1980	646,174	3.6%	997,844	9.5%
1990	610,337	−5.5%	1,067,263	7.0%
2000	650,100	6.5%	1,205,204	12.9%
2010	646,889	−0.5%	1,316,100	9.2%
2020	633,104	−2.1%	1,337,779	1.6%

gotcha so city is shrinking but the MSA overall is growing. thanks for the inputs I always like to know about markets nationally

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Jordan MoorheadBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
2y
@Paul Sedillo we are seeing many sellers take lower offers. General pricing doesn't reflect what sellers are willing to take in most cases. I think of the advertised prices as more of an optimistic scenario.
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Joe HammelBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Metro Detroit, MI · Member since 2018 · 614 posts · 666 votes
2y
Metro Detroit has what 99% of Real Estate Investors want.
Couple hundred bucks a door monthly cash flow, double digit ROI, and yes the prices appreciate and you build equity.

I cash flow $100k a year off 20 doors and have built a ton of equity in a short amount of time. Happy to send a screen shot of the portfolio to anyone who wants to see, it just won’t allow me to attach pics to a reply.

Purchase: $80k-$130k

Rent: $1100-$1500 (no rent control in MI)

1% rule: 1%-1.4% rule deals

ROI: 10-14%

Cash flow: $250-$350/door (after all expenses and budgeting for maint, capex, vacancy)

Appreciation: 3-10%+ (has been double digit for a decade)

Location: C+, B-

These numbers are based on the "sweet spot" in Metro Detroit. These are largely in the suburbs and some markets within the city. You can find higher ROI (on paper) here and probably in other cities…but the probability of actually collecting rent significantly decreases. Where these numbers are found, there is a very high rate of rent actually being paid.

We have over a dozen Fortune 500 companies just in Metro Detroit with huge Healthcare, Auto, and mortgage industry National footprints. Ford, Rocket mortgage, Beaumont hospitals and more. All complimented with Amazon fulfillment centers, google, and more tech manufacturing jobs.

The bad reputation of “Detroit” comes from OOS investors wanting sub $40,000, D class properties. We don’t buy those. We have found what works and repeat it as much as funds allow. Detroit is known as the highest rent to price ratio in the country…and we’ve found the perfect balance of price/location within the area.
[email protected]248-422-1685
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Justin Brin
OP
Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2023 · 165 posts · 65 votes
2y
Quote from @Joe Hammel:

Metro Detroit has what 99% of Real Estate Investors want.
Couple hundred bucks a door monthly cash flow, double digit ROI, and yes the prices appreciate and you build equity.

I cash flow $100k a year off 20 doors and have built a ton of equity in a short amount of time. Happy to send a screen shot of the portfolio to anyone who wants to see, it just won’t allow me to attach pics to a reply.

Purchase: $80k-$130k

Rent: $1100-$1500 (no rent control in MI)

1% rule: 1%-1.4% rule deals

ROI: 10-14%

Cash flow: $250-$350/door (after all expenses and budgeting for maint, capex, vacancy)

Appreciation: 3-10%+ (has been double digit for a decade)

Location: C+, B-

These numbers are based on the "sweet spot" in Metro Detroit. These are largely in the suburbs and some markets within the city. You can find higher ROI (on paper) here and probably in other cities…but the probability of actually collecting rent significantly decreases. Where these numbers are found, there is a very high rate of rent actually being paid.

We have over a dozen Fortune 500 companies just in Metro Detroit with huge Healthcare, Auto, and mortgage industry National footprints. Ford, Rocket mortgage, Beaumont hospitals and more. All complimented with Amazon fulfillment centers, google, and more tech manufacturing jobs.

The bad reputation of “Detroit” comes from OOS investors wanting sub $40,000, D class properties. We don’t buy those. We have found what works and repeat it as much as funds allow. Detroit is known as the highest rent to price ratio in the country…and we’ve found the perfect balance of price/location within the area.

Can you please send me a screenshot of the profolio?
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Joe HammelBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Metro Detroit, MI · Member since 2018 · 614 posts · 666 votes
2y
Quote from @Justin Brin:

Quote from @Joe Hammel:

Metro Detroit has what 99% of Real Estate Investors want.
Couple hundred bucks a door monthly cash flow, double digit ROI, and yes the prices appreciate and you build equity.

I cash flow $100k a year off 20 doors and have built a ton of equity in a short amount of time. Happy to send a screen shot of the portfolio to anyone who wants to see, it just won’t allow me to attach pics to a reply.

Purchase: $80k-$130k

Rent: $1100-$1500 (no rent control in MI)

1% rule: 1%-1.4% rule deals

ROI: 10-14%

Cash flow: $250-$350/door (after all expenses and budgeting for maint, capex, vacancy)

Appreciation: 3-10%+ (has been double digit for a decade)

Location: C+, B-

These numbers are based on the "sweet spot" in Metro Detroit. These are largely in the suburbs and some markets within the city. You can find higher ROI (on paper) here and probably in other cities…but the probability of actually collecting rent significantly decreases. Where these numbers are found, there is a very high rate of rent actually being paid.

We have over a dozen Fortune 500 companies just in Metro Detroit with huge Healthcare, Auto, and mortgage industry National footprints. Ford, Rocket mortgage, Beaumont hospitals and more. All complimented with Amazon fulfillment centers, google, and more tech manufacturing jobs.

The bad reputation of “Detroit” comes from OOS investors wanting sub $40,000, D class properties. We don’t buy those. We have found what works and repeat it as much as funds allow. Detroit is known as the highest rent to price ratio in the country…and we’ve found the perfect balance of price/location within the area.

Can you please send me a screenshot of the profolio?
For sure, I'll send you a message
[email protected]248-422-1685
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Justin Brin:

Here is a list of 17 metros in the US that have population larger than 900k and median house price is below 400k:
Which metro you recommend and which metro you don't recommend?
I know California is not so investor friendly due to high taxes and non landlord friendly regulation.
Florida has high insurance costs in some areas?!
What do you think?

my experience is just stick in LA Single Family and find one with ADU, preferably if it's broken house LOL

You can invest OOS, if you already had 3 SFR in LA :)
2 Reply
Lane Kawaoka
Rental Property Investor · Honolulu, HAWAII (HI) · Member since 2011 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
2y
@Justin Brin
Hey Justin, Coolest sheet here. Yeah, I've been down this road before myself doing these types of data analysis. But—lots of that data you're crunching? It's outdated - even though its up to data if you know what I mean where the trend has might have moved. Remember how Boise, Idaho looked like a gold mine where now it bounced back 180 degrees.

I usually hone in on column F for population change.

So, diving into the list: Oklahoma City. Not as vibrant (I have two Class C apartments there) as, say, Dallas or Houston. And Memphis, St. Louis, Kentucky... well, they're not exactly hotspots. Now, Indianapolis has some buzz about it in the north, but it's not booming like the southern cities.

And Ohio—Cincinnati, Columbus—doesn't seem to bounce back it will always be the Rustbelt... still, I've got some investments in Cleveland. Houston's a mosaic of markets, a behemoth really 4-5 of those other markets in one. It's about the submarkets there, dozens of them, not just the MSA-level view.
California? I steer clear.
Jacksonville and Dallas are on my good list—robust markets, even if they're oddly low on your list. Sorting criteria might need a tweak.

Atlanta's solid but pricey. Tampa, Florida? Watch out for those hurricanes, higher risk than Jacksonville. I get what you're doing with the data, but sometimes you've gotta step back. Pick a market not just by the numbers but by the people you're in it with.
6 Reply
Jorge VazquezBusiness Member
Real Estate Broker · Tampa, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 695 votes
2y
Based on my 20 years of experience working in Tampa as a broker, investor, and property manager, I think Tampa is one of the best places to invest in property. Here's why:
- The local economy is booming, not just because of tourism but also because new companies are starting up, and there are plenty of jobs.
- More and more people are moving to Tampa. This is good for property owners because it means more people need houses or apartments.
- Florida, especially Tampa, is good for property owners. Florida It is a landlord-friend state.
- You get to save on taxes, too. In Florida, you don't have to pay state income tax, so you get to keep more of the money you make from your investment.
- When it comes to insurance, even though it can be pricey in Florida, Tampa is a bit better off because of its location. It's worth looking into the details about insurance costs in Tampa, as it might not be as bad as you think.
You can find a lot of the "high-end of the low-end"
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Lane Kawaoka:

@Justin Brin
Hey Justin, Coolest sheet here. Yeah, I've been down this road before myself doing these types of data analysis. But—lots of that data you're crunching? It's outdated - even though its up to data if you know what I mean where the trend has might have moved. Remember how Boise, Idaho looked like a gold mine where now it bounced back 180 degrees.

I usually hone in on column F for population change.

So, diving into the list: Oklahoma City. Not as vibrant (I have two Class C apartments there) as, say, Dallas or Houston. And Memphis, St. Louis, Kentucky... well, they're not exactly hotspots. Now, Indianapolis has some buzz about it in the north, but it's not booming like the southern cities.

And Ohio—Cincinnati, Columbus—doesn't seem to bounce back it will always be the Rustbelt... still, I've got some investments in Cleveland. Houston's a mosaic of markets, a behemoth really 4-5 of those other markets in one. It's about the submarkets there, dozens of them, not just the MSA-level view.
California? I steer clear.
Jacksonville and Dallas are on my good list—robust markets, even if they're oddly low on your list. Sorting criteria might need a tweak.

Atlanta's solid but pricey. Tampa, Florida? Watch out for those hurricanes, higher risk than Jacksonville. I get what you're doing with the data, but sometimes you've gotta step back. Pick a market not just by the numbers but by the people you're in it with.

The population growth, job business growth, they are all very relevant when investor is GP syndicator ; but if it's newbie one SF rental owner, even cute 2/1 BR in middle of Ohioville somewhere would generate decent return.
1 Reply
Justin Brin
OP
Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2023 · 165 posts · 65 votes
2y
Quote from @Lane Kawaoka:

@Justin Brin
I get what you're doing with the data, but sometimes you've gotta step back. Pick a market not just by the numbers but by the people you're in it with.
I totally agree!!!
1 Reply
Rob Bergeron
Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Justin Brin:

Here is a list of 17 metros in the US that have population larger than 900k and median house price is below 400k:
Which metro you recommend and which metro you don't recommend?
I know California is not so investor friendly due to high taxes and non landlord friendly regulation.
Florida has high insurance costs in some areas?!
What do you think?

I work with quite a few out of state investors in my market (Louisville, KY). Happy to schedule a time to jump on a call discuss the market and plugging into my infrastructure.
2 Reply
Mackaylee BeachPro Member
Real Estate Agent · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 492 votes
2y
Kansas City - a rapidly expanding city with endless opportunities.
Any investors here that may be considering the market? I'd be glad to connect and share more about it.
[email protected]
2 Reply
Michael SmytheBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Metro Detroit · Member since 2023 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
2y
You should look into Detroit!
You might want to follow the "Deep Dive" series we're doing on our BiggerPockets blog about Metro Detroit cities, City of Detroit Neighborhoods and comparing Metro Detroit to other hotspots investors usually consider:

https://www.biggerpockets.com/member-blogs/3094/99854-deep-dive-into-metro-detroit-cities-ecorse

Our analysis is a template you can follow for any city, but doubt you'll find this much info for any other market in the US.

So, why would you invest remotely anywhere else?

How can we assist you further?
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Justin Brin
OP
Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2023 · 165 posts · 65 votes
2y
Quote from @Michael Smythe:

You should look into Detroit!
You might want to follow the "Deep Dive" series we're doing on our BiggerPockets blog about Metro Detroit cities, City of Detroit Neighborhoods and comparing Metro Detroit to other hotspots investors usually consider:

https://www.biggerpockets.com/member-blogs/3094/99854-deep-dive-into-metro-detroit-cities-ecorse

Our analysis is a template you can follow for any city, but doubt you'll find this much info for any other market in the US.

So, why would you invest remotely anywhere else?

How can we assist you further?

I will check it out!
0 Reply
Monica Caliber
Wholesaler · Miami · Member since 2023 · 25 posts · 9 votes
2y
Quote from @Justin Brin:

Quote from @Yu Liu:

I don't personally invest in the following but I've heard great things about Indianapolis and Cincinnati. I know some people crushing it with STRs in indy and a friend who is looking for multifamily in Cinci
Personally, I like the Florida market because I'm familiar with it
How is the insurance cost currently in Florida? Or it only went up in certain areas and not all Florida?

Miami condo insurance with Citizen is relatively cheap. For my 1/1 condo on 32nd floor (high rise built 2007) my insurance is only $286. My previous insurance was $1,100
2 Reply
Kirsten M.
Realtor · Albuquerque, NM · Member since 2017 · 121 posts · 68 votes
2y
Depending on the type of investing you're planning on doing, Albuquerque is a great place for flipping. Just driving around town, you will see a lot of homes that are in need of a full renovation. Buy and hold is a little more precarious at the moment with rents beginning to stagnate. If you have any questions about the local market, I'm happy to help.
2 Reply
Gopichand N.
Investor · San Jose, CA · Member since 2021 · 78 posts · 35 votes
2y
I wanted to share some crucial insights regarding our real estate market discussions. Each realtor here backs their market with substantial data, historical trends, and extensive experience. While their expertise is invaluable, it's important to remember that ultimately, they represent their own interests in the market.

Therefore, I encourage you to take the initiative to run the numbers and analyze the data thoroughly. It's essential to remember that you are the one who needs to do the heavy lifting when making a purchase decision. While realtors provide guidance, the final decision and its implications rest on your shoulders.

If you have trusted advisors or industry experts, now is a good time to seek their opinions. A collaborative, data-driven approach, combined with your personal diligence, will ensure well-informed and beneficial decisions.

Looking forward to our continued discussions and decisions
3 Reply
Carrie Zhang
Investor · NY · Member since 2023 · 19 posts · 10 votes
2y
Quote from @Joe Hammel:

Metro Detroit has what 99% of Real Estate Investors want.
Couple hundred bucks a door monthly cash flow, double digit ROI, and yes the prices appreciate and you build equity.

I cash flow $100k a year off 20 doors and have built a ton of equity in a short amount of time. Happy to send a screen shot of the portfolio to anyone who wants to see, it just won’t allow me to attach pics to a reply.

Purchase: $80k-$130k

Rent: $1100-$1500 (no rent control in MI)

1% rule: 1%-1.4% rule deals

ROI: 10-14%

Cash flow: $250-$350/door (after all expenses and budgeting for maint, capex, vacancy)

Appreciation: 3-10%+ (has been double digit for a decade)

Location: C+, B-

These numbers are based on the "sweet spot" in Metro Detroit. These are largely in the suburbs and some markets within the city. You can find higher ROI (on paper) here and probably in other cities…but the probability of actually collecting rent significantly decreases. Where these numbers are found, there is a very high rate of rent actually being paid.

We have over a dozen Fortune 500 companies just in Metro Detroit with huge Healthcare, Auto, and mortgage industry National footprints. Ford, Rocket mortgage, Beaumont hospitals and more. All complimented with Amazon fulfillment centers, google, and more tech manufacturing jobs.

The bad reputation of “Detroit” comes from OOS investors wanting sub $40,000, D class properties. We don’t buy those. We have found what works and repeat it as much as funds allow. Detroit is known as the highest rent to price ratio in the country…and we’ve found the perfect balance of price/location within the area.
Interesting - curious what areas of Detroit your portfolio is! I'm in class A neighborhoods, while the rents are high and tenants are very stable, the taxes are getting too high where the returns are shrinking YoY.
0 Reply
Alfath AhmedBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Justin Brin:

Here is a list of 17 metros in the US that have population larger than 900k and median house price is below 400k:
Which metro you recommend and which metro you don't recommend?
I know California is not so investor friendly due to high taxes and non landlord friendly regulation.
Florida has high insurance costs in some areas?!
What do you think?

I see Columbus is at #9 on your list. A lot of out-of-state investors from the east and west coast are investing here due to the crazy growth over the last 3-5 years.
Housing prices have nearly doubled since 2020 and continuing to grow. I own 9 investment properties here and have worked with a ton of OOS from California and Seattle who have bought here in Columbus for cashflow + appreciation.

[email protected]614-802-5698
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Becca F.
Rental Property Investor · San Francisco Bay Area · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
Someone else mentioned this earlier but factor in property tax increases with underwriting your deal. If it's a lower purchase price but your taxes go up with no limit, that will eat into your profitability.
I've heard of another investor buying in Ohio who had a property tax abatement so that might be worth looking into.
My Class A Indianapolis suburb home has gone up 17% in property tax with the last assessment in Jan. 2024. I didn't appeal it because the comps I would have used are higher than the assessed value so it didn't make sense to appeal. I can't do a rent increase of over $300 a month to my great tenant - that will scare them away. I did $90 increase the last lease renewal. I'm in the market rate rent range.
I'm in for a big surprise when my Indy Class C SFH is re-assessed, owned for a year now. There's no predictable pattern to the increases, unlike CA with 2% max property tax increase.
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