Just because the numbers work, doesn't mean its a good deal

[Devin James]

The numbers might look great in a spreadsheet…

But here are a few things the financial model won’t tell you:

- What do the neighboring properties look like?

- Are there active buyers in the market?

- How long will it actually take to get to the finish line?

Sometimes it’s not about whether the deal can work—

It’s about whether it’s worth the time, risk, and capital.

Gut checks, local insight, and patience matter.

[Chris Seveney]

Quote from @Devin James:

The numbers might look great in a spreadsheet…

But here are a few things the financial model won’t tell you:

- What do the neighboring properties look like?

- Are there active buyers in the market?

- How long will it actually take to get to the finish line?

Sometimes it’s not about whether the deal can work—

It’s about whether it’s worth the time, risk, and capital.

Gut checks, local insight, and patience matter.

 Also the numbers are always wrong - the moment you put them into the spreadsheet they are wrong as I have yet to meet anyone who can predict the future.

As you mention its about risk - and what are the risk factors you are taking on that can impact the number as well as how likely is it to happen. For example we invest in mortgage notes a lot and if a borrower is behind and has $500k equity in their home - if we bid it based on a foreclosure but bankruptcy is worse situation for us, chances are much higher they are going to file BK so we better underwrite it based on that as well.