No Jobs Data, No Rate Cut

[Andrew Postell]

Rates are slightly lower today. The 10-year Treasury is around 4.12%, down about 3 basis points, and the 30-year is near 4.72%, also down 3 bps. The 2-year yield eased to 3.60%, reflecting modest risk-off sentiment and anticipation of delayed economic data releases. Investors are positioning ahead of the release of backlogged economic data, including the September jobs report, and monitoring Fed commentary. The recent government shutdown has amplified uncertainty, reinforcing demand for Treasuries. Lower Treasury yields typically support mortgage rates, which remain near recent lows at approximately 6.25% for a 30-year fixed – UMBS 5.5s are sharply unchanged on the day, despite lower treasury yields.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will not publish the October jobs report due to the 43-day government shutdown, which prevented collection of household survey data. This means the October unemployment rate will never be reported. Nonfarm payroll figures for October will be folded into the November report, now scheduled for December 16, after the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting. Policymakers and markets face a significant data gap, complicating rate decisions. Traders have already reduced odds of a December Fed rate cut from about 50% to just 29% following the BLS announcement.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2025/11/18/jobless-c...

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