Market Movements - November 24, 2025

[Andrew Postell]

Labor Market Cooling

Last week brought long-awaited clarity on the state of the US economy. After months of delayed government data, the September jobs report was released, with Nonfarm Payrolls numbers making headlines. The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the consensus expectation of 50,000. However, prior months were revised sharply lower, reinforcing the narrative of a softening labor market. The unemployment rate hit 4.4%, the highest since 2021, driven by higher labor force participation rather than mass layoffs. The outpacing of labor supply over job creation signals a cooling economy where hiring demand is moderating, even as workers return.

Inflation, Also Cooling

Inflation remains moderate at 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target but unchanged from last month. With slower job growth and rising unemployment reducing wage pressures, inflation is easing and has potential to continue its downward trajectory in the coming months. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment took a sharp hit, with the University of Michigan's October index falling to a record low of 51, signaling heightened risk aversion. In short, inflation is cooling, the labor market is softening, and consumer spending is holding up, an expected reflection of monetary tightening and cyclical slowdown.

Rate Cut Debate

A divide has grown further among members of the FOMC heading into their December meeting, where a rate cut remains on the table. For policymakers, the challenge lies in balancing signs of cooling inflation and a softening labor market against the risk of persistent price pressures and ongoing weaknesses in the housing market. Futures pricing for a cut has been volatile, swinging sharply last week after dovish comments from NY Fed President John Williams pushed odds from 39% to 70% in the span of one day. Current odds remain at around 70%, but the debate drags on, with this week's data likely to determine the next shift in sentiment.

Key Economic Data Releases

• Tuesday, November 25 - September PPI, Retail Sales
• Wednesday, November 26 - Personal Income & PCE Deflator, Q3 GDP

WEEKLY INTEREST RATE SNAPSHOT (Images) 

*National average rates are provided by Bankrate.com and Bloomberg Professional as of 11/24/2025 and are not advertised rates from Rate, Inc.

Addison, Allen, Anna, Azle, Batch Springs, Bedford, Benbrook, Burleson, Cedar Hill, Celina, Cleburne, Colleyville, Coppell, Corinth, Crowley, DeSoto, Duncanville, Ennis, Euless, Farmers Branch, Fate, Flower Mound, Forest Hill, Forney, Glenn Heights, Grapevine, Greenville, Haltom City, Highland Village, Hurst, Keller, Lancaster, Little Elm, Mansfield, Midlothian, Mineral Wells, Murphy, North Richland Hills, Prosper, Red Oak, Rockwall, Rowlett, Royse City, Sachse, Saginaw, Seagoville, Southlake, Terrell, The Colony, Trophy Club, University Park, Watauga, Waxahachie, Weatherford, White Settlement, Wylie, Dallas, Fort Worth, Plano, Irving, Garland, Grand Prairie, McKinney, Frisco, Mesquite, Carrollton, Denton, Richardson, Lewisville, or Arlington