Markets Choose Growth Over Gloom

[Andrew Postell]

Interest rates are modestly lower this morning as risk appetite continues to build across global markets. Goldman Sachs highlighted that investor risk sentiment has reached its highest level since 2021, driven by improving global growth expectations and broad-based equity participation. That “risk‑on” tone is lifting both U.S. stocks and Treasuries—economic optimism is once again trumping geopolitical noise. With yields drifting lower, mortgage‑backed securities are up a few ticks on the day, offering a bit of near‑term relief to rate sheets after last week’s volatility.

The supportive macro backdrop is reinforcing investor demand for duration, which has kept a lid on yield increases even in the face of hotter data. Today’s S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller / CoreLogic Home Price numbers came in slightly stronger than expected (+0.47% MoM), showing home values continuing to climb at a steady annual pace across most major metros. Price growth remains fueled by tight supply conditions and resilient demand—conditions that continue to challenge affordability even as mortgage rates ease off their recent highs. The survey’s 20-city results are below.

Overall, the combination of improving market sentiment, stronger equity performance, and a mild bid for bonds has translated into slightly better mortgage rate indications this morning. While the fundamental drivers of housing affordability remain strained, today’s data and the broader macro tone point to a market that remains surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty.

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