Recession Predictor: Leading Index of Economic Indicators

[J. Martin]

The Leading Index of Economic Indicators has been a pretty good indicator of a decline in economic activity, since it was published.

The index uses nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries, state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.

Declining trends in the leading index for the US tends to precede a recession. Currently, it is not exhibiting any real downward trend, although it's longer-term upward trajectory from 2010 through 2014 appears to have ended.

However, many US states, including larger states like New York, Texas, and Washinton have significant downward trending leading indeces, along with many energy-producing states, dropping into what is historically recession territory..

Select States with Declining Leading Indeces

Doesn't it look sort of like it did at the beginning of the last recession?
Here's the longer term..

What do you think?
Some informational or predictive value here..?
Anyone seeing anything in the declining states above? NYC, Dallas, San Antonio, Seattle, Columbus, Louisville, Tulsa, Juneau, New Orleans, or Chicago? Any softening?

[Joe Villeneuve]

Yawn.  Too many other factors played roles in the last recession not even mentioned here.