how can you tell if it's generally a good or bad time to buy?

9 Replies

new to bigger pockets, so far has been a great educational resource. looking to do a first time investment purchase in a few areas. i know this question varies based on location, type, etc. but im looking to do single family rental investment.

i hear its a "bad" time to buy right now in california and browsing the internet (mostly reddit), but what are the indicators of this? 

@Rachel Liu

There's many posts on bigger pockets about next crash, and the pros and cons. Truth be told, no one really knows. Reator.com posts the top 100 cities metros forecast and lists many cities with growth and appreciation.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/712/topics/51...

The term buy low and sell high is common for stocks as well as real estate. There are still good values in certain markets. If you did your homework and the numbers still make sense, then the risk is limited. However, if you run into analysis paralysis, is not good either. For example, If in 2008 when the recession hit everyone, then you said too much uncertainty and did not buy. Now, market is red hot, and you say real estate market too expensive. Then based upon the two scenarios, you will never buy and just have excuse after excuse. 

There are a few good markets with value build in. You need to do your homework. I gave you list of top 100 cities. You can probably start with top ten.

Terry

The only way you can tell for sure is hindsight.

No one really knows. However if you can find a property that you can value add to it . That is a decent area ( populated) and can hold longer than expected than the recipe will most likely work out.

@Rachel Liu

Real estate goes in cycles. Some say 7-8 year cycles, others say longer. You have to be one step ahead of the herd. For example, I gave you a list of top 100 city metros forecast for 2018, which came out in Dec'17. You are seeing that now in April, so that is already old news, and the market already reflected that article.

Below is an example of real estate cycle. It is an investors job to figure out where the market is on the chart. There are lots of hints that the market gives. For example, economy, jobs, unemployment, median home price, stock market, etc.

Terry

Originally posted by @Rachel Liu :

new to bigger pockets, so far has been a great educational resource. looking to do a first time investment purchase in a few areas. i know this question varies based on location, type, etc. but im looking to do single family rental investment.

i hear its a "bad" time to buy right now in california and browsing the internet (mostly reddit), but what are the indicators of this? 

 If you can take a property and run the numbers and make money on it, it is a good time to buy. If you take those numbers and lose money, it is a bad time to buy.

The common assumption is that there are only a couple of ways to buy a property and that is limited thinking. There are at least seven ways, I use each in their appropriate time. If the market is going up, I can make money, if the market is going down I can make money. If the market is uncertain, I can make money. All of this information is available by using "search" above. It may take a little work, but it's worth it. Everything I know I have learned from others and that information has been around for decades and many others are doing the same as I am. There is nothing new under the sun. 

The best time is now , you cant go back to yesterday , and you dont know what tomorrow will bring . If its a deal , its the time .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9b-i0XknSnM

If it’s a good deal then buy it- regardless about what time you may think it is.

@Rachel Liu Go to some local meetups and see what the investors are saying there. That would be the best way to figure it out for yourself and be able to ask questions and learn IMO.

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