2018 Housing Forecast by Realtor.com.......and #1 is Las Vegas

50 Replies

Realtor.com came out with their 2018 housing forecast and the top 100 largest metros, ranked by sales and growth, and #1 is Las Vegas. This is another honor, and another organization give Las Vegas high honors. Below is link and top 100 ranking is at bottom. Lots to read. I will summarize with list below.

https://research.realtor.com/2018-national-housing...

What do you think?

Terry

Top 100 Largest U.S. Metros Ranked by Forecasted 2018 Sales and Price Growth

RankMetro2018 Sales Growth2018 Price Growth
1Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.4.906.90
2Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas6.025.57
3Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.5.476.00
4Stockton-Lodi, Calif.4.556.43
5Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.3.007.00
6Salt Lake City, Utah4.624.50
7Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.5.983.02
8Colorado Springs, Colo3.125.65
9Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.1.007.67
10Tulsa, Okla.7.541.02
11Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.2.346.21
12Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.3.504.97
13Austin-Round Rock, Texas4.044.42
14Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.3.105.28
15Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.7.001.37
16Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.1.756.54
17Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.1.246.88
18Toledo, Ohio5.162.95
19Columbia, S.C.5.073.00
20Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.1.007.00
21Jacksonville, Fla.4.733.20
22Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.5.182.62
23Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.3.723.97
24Akron, Ohio5.891.70
25North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.3.004.50
26Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.3.504.00
27Worcester, Mass.-Conn.3.773.68
28Raleigh, N.C.1.635.77
29Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.1.386.00
30Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.2.964.25
31Boise City, Idaho2.005.00
32San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.2.504.37
33Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.2.804.00
34Madison, Wis.1.725.05
35Albuquerque, N.M.2.923.71
36Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas2.244.19
37Winston-Salem, N.C.3.003.21
38Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.0.525.66
39Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.1.274.89
40Fresno, Calif.1.294.81
41San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.0.945.14
42Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.1.174.77
43Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.3.662.26
44Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.2.293.62
45Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.2.503.34
46Tucson, Ariz.3.002.71
47San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.2.513.19
48Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.3.012.50
49Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.2.503.00
50Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio3.002.48
51Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.3.002.42
52McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas2.383.00
53Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.3.641.69
54New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.1.164.15
55Jackson, Miss.0.005.30
56Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.1.403.82
57Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.2.552.64
58Pittsburgh, Pa.3.531.62
59Oklahoma City, Okla.1.493.51
60Portland-South Portland, Maine5.000.00
61Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla1.003.99
62El Paso, Texas2.692.24
63Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.0.00 4.93
64Knoxville, Tenn.2.002.92
65Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.4.120.57
66Bakersfield, Calif.1.003.61
67Urban Honolulu, Hawaii1.433.11
68Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa3.201.19
69Greensboro-High Point, N.C.1.342.97
70Springfield, Mass.1.243.00
71New Orleans-Metairie, La.2.002.24
72Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.1.472.32
73Wichita, Ks.2.231.49
74Richmond, Va.2.681.02
75Columbus, Ohio0.053.58
76Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.1.002.61
77Rochester, N.Y.1.562.02
78Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.4.46-1.05
79Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.0.752.55
80Dayton, Ohio3.010.19
81Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.1.371.82
82Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, Pa.1.181.81
83Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.3.78-1.04
84Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.0.00 2.57
85Syracuse, N.Y.0.00 2.57
86Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.0.00 2.48
87Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.0.481.82
88New Haven-Milford, Conn.2.96-0.67
89Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md-W.V.0.00 2.25
90Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa0.00 2.18
91Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.-2.744.92
92San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas0.371.52
93Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.-3.484.98
94Baton Rouge, La.0.00 1.50
95Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.-1.882.99
96Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.-2.103.09
97Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.3.49-2.53
98Kansas City, Mo-Kan.0.00 -0.12
99St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.0.00 -2.83
100Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.-0.35-2.87

Realtor.com’s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables for the year ahead. The forecast result is a projection for annual total sales increase (total 2018 existing-home sales vs. 2017) and annual median price increase (2018 median existing-home sales price vs. 2017).

Realtor.com 2018 Housing forecast................and the #1 ranked city is Las Vegas.

see link to article, top 100 at bottom.

https://research.realtor.com/2018-national-housing...

Terry

Top 100 list below.

Top 100 Largest U.S. Metros Ranked by Forecasted 2018 Sales and Price Growth

RankMetro2018 Sales Growth2018 Price Growth
1Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.4.906.90
2Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas6.025.57
3Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.5.476.00
4Stockton-Lodi, Calif.4.556.43
5Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.3.007.00
6Salt Lake City, Utah4.624.50
7Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.5.983.02
8Colorado Springs, Colo3.125.65
9Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.1.007.67
10Tulsa, Okla.7.541.02
11Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.2.346.21
12Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.3.504.97
13Austin-Round Rock, Texas4.044.42
14Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.3.105.28
15Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.7.001.37
16Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.1.756.54
17Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.1.246.88
18Toledo, Ohio5.162.95
19Columbia, S.C.5.073.00
20Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.1.007.00
21Jacksonville, Fla.4.733.20
22Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.5.182.62
23Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.3.723.97
24Akron, Ohio5.891.70
25North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.3.004.50
26Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.3.504.00
27Worcester, Mass.-Conn.3.773.68
28Raleigh, N.C.1.635.77
29Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.1.386.00
30Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.2.964.25
31Boise City, Idaho2.005.00
32San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.2.504.37
33Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.2.804.00
34Madison, Wis.1.725.05
35Albuquerque, N.M.2.923.71
36Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas2.244.19
37Winston-Salem, N.C.3.003.21
38Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.0.525.66
39Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.1.274.89
40Fresno, Calif.1.294.81
41San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.0.945.14
42Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.1.174.77
43Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.3.662.26
44Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.2.293.62
45Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.2.503.34
46Tucson, Ariz.3.002.71
47San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.2.513.19
48Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.3.012.50
49Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.2.503.00
50Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio3.002.48
51Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.3.002.42
52McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas2.383.00
53Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.3.641.69
54New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.1.164.15
55Jackson, Miss.0.005.30
56Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.1.403.82
57Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.2.552.64
58Pittsburgh, Pa.3.531.62
59Oklahoma City, Okla.1.493.51
60Portland-South Portland, Maine5.000.00
61Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla1.003.99
62El Paso, Texas2.692.24
63Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.0.00 4.93
64Knoxville, Tenn.2.002.92
65Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.4.120.57
66Bakersfield, Calif.1.003.61
67Urban Honolulu, Hawaii1.433.11
68Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa3.201.19
69Greensboro-High Point, N.C.1.342.97
70Springfield, Mass.1.243.00
71New Orleans-Metairie, La.2.002.24
72Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.1.472.32
73Wichita, Ks.2.231.49
74Richmond, Va.2.681.02
75Columbus, Ohio0.053.58
76Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.1.002.61
77Rochester, N.Y.1.562.02
78Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.4.46-1.05
79Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.0.752.55
80Dayton, Ohio3.010.19
81Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.1.371.82
82Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, Pa.1.181.81
83Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.3.78-1.04
84Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.0.00 2.57
85Syracuse, N.Y.0.00 2.57
86Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.0.00 2.48
87Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.0.481.82
88New Haven-Milford, Conn.2.96-0.67
89Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md-W.V.0.00 2.25
90Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa0.00 2.18
91Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.-2.744.92
92San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas0.371.52
93Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.-3.484.98
94Baton Rouge, La.0.00 1.50
95Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.-1.882.99
96Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.-2.103.09
97Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.3.49-2.53
98Kansas City, Mo-Kan.0.00 -0.12
99St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.0.00 -2.83
100Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.-0.35-2.87

Realtor.com’s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables for the year ahead. The forecast result is a projection for annual total sales increase (total 2018 existing-home sales vs. 2017) and annual median price increase (2018 median existing-home sales price vs. 2017).

Terry Lao

From my memory, an article I read a few months ago, Las Vegas is the second slowest market to catch up to its last peak (year 2006). What I meant by that is, the housing price in most cities in US have passed last peak price. Today Las Vegas housing price is only about 70% of last peak, that being said, it still has a lot of room to grow. For Las Vegas to catch up to last peak housing price, I won’t be surprise that Las Vegas will be the top 5 cities that have the best
price growth in year 2018.

Historical data show us that new peak is always higher than the previous peaks.

If history does repeat again (have not failed to repeat so far), the coming new peak price should be higher than the previous peak price in year 2006.

@Mary L.

You are correct. Las Vegas high median 341k, Aug'06. Current 262k, Oct'16. Difference of 79k divided by 262 = .30%, thus only 70% recovered from peak. 

When you are last to recover from the recession, you have the most room for improvement.

My chips are all in for Las Vegas.

Terry

Would you agree or disagree with #1 Las Vegas as top on list? 

I like the fact that Las Vegas on recovered 70% of their peak, and there's room for growth. While other large metros like Los Angeles recovered and past their peak long ago. 

Also, the NFL Raiders are moving to Las Vegas and building  $1.9B stadium to be completed in 2020. Wait until all the home games are played with fans coming from all over.

Terry

@Terry Lao

I think there is a high chance that Las Vegas may be the #1 city on the price growth % in year 2018, but this is something in the future that we don’t know yet. It may be #2 or #5. Even though it is not #1 or #2, that is fine with me. I’m more concern about the price growth %. As long as the price growth % is good, I’m happy with it.

I’m waiting for the housing price to pass the previous peak in year 2006, then will reevaluate the market again.

My portfolio currently have good cash flow anyway. Selling is not necessary. I will only sell it after “BOTH” the housing price pass the previous peak “AND” market show that we are in a downturn stage.

If it is unlucky that the market turns before it pass the previous peak, due to the expensive selling cost/fee (6% agent commission, escrow fee, property transfer tax, owner title policy, 15% capital gain tax etc etc), I will not sell my portfolio and just ride it over to the next downturn.

In the meantime, I’m repeating the same process, cash-out refinance and buy more properties. I have 4 pending escrow now. After these 4 escrow are closed, my cash-out finance from the other properties shall be done, then I can buy another 2 to 3 more properties after it.
In year 2018, if the market price stay the same like right now or raise a little bit, I will pull more equities out from other properties to buy more.
Will see.

@Mary L.

I'm okay with top 5 spot when actual come out at end 2018. I'm just excited that Las Vegas got the top spot in Realtor.com forecast. Also, Realtor.com is not a small organization, and hold sway in the real estate market.

The #1 spot is like the NFL draft where rookies are selected based on potential. It is just a great honor for the city of Las Vegas to be selected.

Terry

@Terry Lao you know I didn't come to Vegas for no reason, and it wasn't predetermined I would come here and happen to benefit. I spent months looking for what would be the best city for me and my finance to live in over the next 10-20 years and vegas was plainly the best choice. Whether it's top 5, top 3, or top 1 doesn't surprise me at all. I knew it would be a great market going forward and I bet my whole family and our careers on it.

I'm certainly no expert in all specific markets, but looking at macro economic forces combined with vegas specific forces I remain convinced that Las Vegas is one of the best cities to live in going forward, and I believe it is on an upward trend going forward. I picked up everything I owned and moved here with no job (or my fiancé) and we don't really know anyone out here. The economics were just too good to pass up, so far (8 months in) my expectations have been far exceeded.

@Alexander Felice

Thanks for your input and personal touch. I will eventually move to Las Vegas, but right now living in southern california where everything is expensive. I would like to live at least part time in Las Vegas when retire, that's why I'm investing now. '

You and everyone has a story of how that ended up or chose Las Vegas. Each story could be detail, logical, or just by chance. Me..........I like casinos and buffets. I got tired of losing at the casinos, and tried real estate instead.

Terry

@Terry Lao

Interesting. I had been hearing about a lot of plans and development for the downtown Vegas area, but haven't been there for years. Whenever visiting we always ended up staying on the strip . Have you looked at that area at all or invested there?

That's funny about getting tired of losing at the casinos and decided to try real estate instead! 

@Joseph M.

Depends how many years since you last saw Las Vegas downtown. Zappos.com (online shoe company) moved downtown and really invested a lot of money. The location is their headquarter with CEO Tony Hiesh. More restaurants and shops since revitalized with outdoor experience. 

I bought 3 fourplexs and sold one since, but kept two since Dec'14. I would say doubled and tripled on my returns. The cashflow was the reason I bought, but appreciation just happened as a big surprise. Still good to invest but harder to find the good properties.

Now, with Las Vegas getting more attention and voted #1 by realtor.com, there can only be more competition. Also, LV is the obvious choice for southern californians who got tired of the high prices in Socal.

Terry

Originally posted by @Terry Lao :

@Alexander Felice

Thanks for your input and personal touch. I will eventually move to Las Vegas, but right now living in southern california where everything is expensive. I would like to live at least part time in Las Vegas when retire, that's why I'm investing now. '

You and everyone has a story of how that ended up or chose Las Vegas. Each story could be detail, logical, or just by chance. Me..........I like casinos and buffets. I got tired of losing at the casinos, and tried real estate instead.

Terry

 yeah that's the culture here kinda, it's a great close community, but no one is from here. One of my favorite sayings about people is "everyone has a story, no one wants to hear it". People move here for all sorts of reasons, no big ones ;)

I never gamble, but I hang out at the casinos plenty. I also don't invest in any RE here but again it's all relative. the returns might be good compared to SoCal but they are terrible compared to NC where I came from and still buy houses.

edit - I do own my primary here and I'm VERY happy for that!

@Terry Lao Yeah that is what I had read about the Zappos CEO having a vision for downtown Vegas and investing a ton in the area. I've been to Vegas pretty recently...but actually downtown vegas it's probably been more than 5 years or so. 

That is great you have made 2-3x on your properties.  Not sure when you bought, but it seemed like the banks were practically giving away REOs during the crash. I know there were homes under $30,000 with many to chose from. I'm sure they weren't great areas..but now doesn't seem you can buy anything under $120,000 really.


I just did a random search and came up with this one they are asking $130,000.

Sold May 2012 for ...$26,000..   Even if sells for $120k that's like 4.6x .

https://www.redfin.com/NV/Las-Vegas/205-N-20th-St-...

@Joseph M.

I bought first 4plex in 2013, but the bottom was more like 2010-2011. I think there is more upside for the next 2-3 years. The Las Vegas market only reach 70% of their highest peak at 341k Jul'08. Now, median is at 262k, Oct'17. When you are last to recover from recession, you have the most room for recovery.

Also, NFL, NHL, decided to award franchises to LV. With Raiders $1.9B stadium to be completed in 2020. 

If you are living in southern california, the obvious choice to sky high prices is Las Vegas.

Terry

@Terry Lao , yeah 2013 was still a good year to buy of course. I bought my primary in L.A in 2010 , but there were still good deals until about 2013 or so...but then it seemed the REOs dried up around then.. 

Looking back maybe I would of done better investing in a market like Vegas and buying up those $30,000 homes but of course it was hard to get investment loans back then. But prices of course have gone up nicely in L.A. Actually did sell primary this year, for multiple reasons.

Yeah I am sure all those new sports franchise and the stadium will benefit the economy.

@Joseph M.

Sounds like you did okay too.

If you only stay on strip or downtown, then you don't realize that there is a lot more to Las Vegas. The biggest learning surprise is that there is a city called North Las Vegas. I thought it was Las Vegas but just north part.

Terry

@Terry Lao Thank you for sharing this info. Are you investing in downtown and/or North Las Vegas? What other areas are you looking at for your next deal?

@David Beadles

Ideal is 4plex, but now prices are 250-350k, and with increased competition, people are still buying. For example, 4plex in north east side were going for 200k all day long in Jan'17, just closed less than a week for $275. 

The 4plex market is C-D areas, but found a few actually C+ to B-, but those are going for $300k plus. 

Now, looking anywhere in Las Vegas that has good cashflow. Even considering SFR. Also, looking at multi commercial (10-20 units).

Like the 2018 forecast predicts Las Vegas as #1 for growth and appreciation, more people get attracted and thus more competition.

Terry

@Terry Lao yeah seems cap rates are being 'compressed' all over as they say. Higher prices for the same rent. 

Have you tried buying off market or doing any direct mail..although I could see that being harder to do from out of the area versus being local.

@Joseph M.

I met a broker who has access to wholesalers, but other than being put on a wholesaler list, not much. If I were approached with opportunity with wholesaler, I would be open to it. I don't even mind doing all cash transaction, as I would cash out refi with delayed financing afterwards.

Terry

@Terry Lao the ranking seems to be a composite of projected 2018 sales growth and 2018 price growth. They must place a higher weight on Price Growth or Dallas would have been ranked number 1.

Of course being ranked high in projected sales and price growth doesn't automatically make it good to invest. As a buy and hold investor I would be interested in cash flow. The other consideration is where the market is going long term. Las Vegas was one of the first to crash and last to recover, making it a brutal market for those caught at the top. My cousin lived in a nice Vegas neighborhood. They decided to move after the crash and had trouble selling their home. While it sat vacant, someone ripped all the copper. Most markets never got that bad. I wonder what has changed in Vegas to prevent that in the future.

Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock :

@Terry Lao the ranking seems to be a composite of projected 2018 sales growth and 2018 price growth. They must place a higher weight on Price Growth or Dallas would have been ranked number 1.

Of course being ranked high in projected sales and price growth doesn't automatically make it good to invest. As a buy and hold investor I would be interested in cash flow. The other consideration is where the market is going long term. Las Vegas was one of the first to crash and last to recover, making it a brutal market for those caught at the top. My cousin lived in a nice Vegas neighborhood. They decided to move after the crash and had trouble selling their home. While it sat vacant, someone ripped all the copper. Most markets never got that bad. I wonder what has changed in Vegas to prevent that in the future.

 Stuff gets ripped from Vegas or can anywhere all the time. I am sure it happens a lot less than before as Vegas turned the corner sort of speak but you could still have a crime wave anytime. The YOY stuff is good to know and is just part of any story. As some markets recover they make a list. 24 months ago Detroit topped all these lists for example. 

With that more people want to move Vegas for better reasons now than previous decades. I expect Vegas remains top 10 for longer than most could predict. One major reason is it is only a 60 min flight from 40 million population and 20 million in SoCal. Why that matters? 25% of all the home equity in the nation is an hour away (Cali). That RE and REI value is more attractive than ever before IMO. I know personally know of enough in their 50s, who cashed LA out, moved to Vegas, paid cash and still have a million left over. Not in better hoods overall but good enough to consider viable. There is more to Vegas for sure but you get the point.

@Joe Splitrock

Either way, #1 and #2, could easily flip flop. Dallas, Ft. Worth has steadily ranked high, especially with no state tax in Texas. Las Vegas on the other hand, not normally mentioned except negative news, casino, or recession hit hardest. 

Not sure if theft/crime is more prevalent in Dallas Ft. Worth or Las Vegas. However, Las Vegas does have the gambling element known all over the world.

Funny story, about sports betting and crime. Awhile back, there was a college football game played at Sam Boyd stadium. Fourth quarter with about 6 minutes to play, score not close, and outcome was pretty much decided. Then stadium lights went out, delayed the game to extent that game was called. All bets refunded at the casinos. Next day, it turns out that someone drove a car into the transformer next to stadium to cause the lights to go out. I'm sure that was gambling/mob related. 

I had money on the winning team, and thus only got money refunded. Even when I win, I lose. Las Vegas real estate much better than gambling.

Terry

Las vegas is the second last to recover, but not the first to crash.
San Francisco was peak at Jan 2006.
Las Vegas was peak at June 2016.
San Francisco was crashed before Las Vegas.

BP cash flow general rule of thumb is that, rent is 1% of the purchase price.

I have investment in both Bay Area California and Las Vegas.

In Bay Area California, my cash flow is about 0.5%

In Las Vegas, my cash flow is about 0.8%.
I consider 0.8% is a good cash flow.

For the long term, we don’t know the future, we don’t know where the market is going in all cities include San Francisco, New York, Dallas, Las Vegas etc.

Sorry to hear that your cousin house was ripped during previous downturn.

During previous crash, all cities experience difficulty selling houses include San Francisco, New York, Dallas, Las Vegas etc.

Today Las Vegas market is very hot. If you list a house on Las Vegas market at the right price, it would have multiple offer easily.

Many cities have both good and bad areas. Robbery and theft are everywhere include San Francisco, New York, Dallas, Las Vegas etc.

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