Should I lock this? VA 30 year 2.875% with .125 pts. My lender is suggesting I float at least a few more days as he believes rates should go lower Or points go away. I could also get a credit with same or lower rate rather than paying the small point. I don't wanna get to greedy by waiting though so am leaning toward locking now

Your broker has no idea which directions rates will go.  If he did, he would be making millions on Wall Street, not selling mortgages.  There is a 50% chance he will be right.

The one thing I can tell you for certain is that it is unlikely that rates will drop significantly.  There is not much room between 2.8% and 0%.

Originally posted by @Greg Scott :

Your broker has no idea which directions rates will go.  If he did, he would be making millions on Wall Street, not selling mortgages.  There is a 50% chance he will be right.

The one thing I can tell you for certain is that it is unlikely that rates will drop significantly.  There is not much room between 2.8% and 0%.

That's my normal line, I concur with it. :)

The only slight difference here is that it's possible Wall Street is flipping out more, or less, than the actual threat of coronavirus would warrant.

If you think the media is hyping it up to be worse than it is, that's a vote to lock now before Wall Street realizes they are panicking over nothing.

If you think the media is under-stating what we're about to get hit with, float and start stockpiling apocalypse survival equipment.  

@Greg Scott The option market is pricing a 100% chance of a 50bp rate cut by the Fed when it meets on March 17-18, if not sooner. Leaders of US, Canada, Japan and others are working on stimulus to stem the drop in economic growth due to the coronavirus, which includes rate cuts. Odds are good mortgage rates will drop a little more over the next week or two, or at least not move up during that time period.

Thanks for the replies, I ended up just locking didn’t want to get greedy

@Eric W. its funny  how many people out there seem to know what rates are going to do over the coming days, weeks, or months. If there truly are people out there who can accurately predict rates and market movement then I can assure you they arent on Biggerpockets.  Instead they are splitting time between their beach on their private island and their 60,000 square ft mansion made out of gold.  

All these things that I am reading from market prognosticators about risks associated with Coronoavirus,  fed rate cuts, stimulus, etc may very well be true.  Very likely that those things are already priced into the market.  Any time there seems to be a consensus about market movement it tends to be wrong.  

I don't mean to be dismissive of your question but its a coin flip.  

@Mark S. There are more to mortgage rates than simply the Fed funds rate.  To your point, the market often prices in movements in the Fed.  If it has, that makes it uncertain if mortgage rates will go up or down in the coming days.

@Greg Scott Yep I realize that. Actually the 10 year treasury rate impacts mortgage rates more than the Fed funds rate. But they have all been moving down dramatically and the overall rate environment is continuing to see downward pressure. That was my point. Of course no one knows where the bottom ever is until after you bounce off it.