Sub-$500k rentals: does cost seg actually pencil out?
Going to poke the bear here because I keep seeing conflicting takes and I want to hear the argument play out.
The pitch: OBBBA restored 100% bonus depreciation for 2025+ acquisitions. Every cost seg firm I've talked to is positioning this as a no-brainer even on sub-$500k rentals, with year-one savings "easily covering" the study cost.
The counter I keep hearing from skeptical CPAs:
1. On a $300-$500k property, after you back out land, reclass 20-25%, apply the bonus, and multiply by your marginal rate — you're looking at maybe $15-30k of year-one tax savings. Minus a $3-5k study. Minus the CPA's fee to handle it.
2. That's accelerated, not created. Recapture on exit eats 30-50% of it back at ordinary rates on the 1245 personalty.
3. At 7% rates, time-value-of-money is way weaker than it was at 3%. The NPV case was stronger in 2021 than it is in 2025.
4. Passive loss rules trap the deduction for non-REPS / non-STR landlords anyway — you can't use it against W2 income without jumping through separate hoops.
5. The software-based "$500 cost seg" products target exactly this segment because the engineered study economics don't work below ~$500k basis.
So the real question: who is cost seg on a small rental actually good for? Is it:
- (a) Genuinely valuable for most smaller landlords and the skeptics are underselling it,
- (b) A break-even proposition being aggressively marketed as a slam dunk,
- (c) Only worth it for STR operators and REPS, and everyone else is being sold a product they can't fully use?
CPAs and operators — where do you actually land? Because the industry messaging says (a), but the math from skeptics keeps pointing at (b) or (c).