Calculating ARV for Fix n Flip in current DC market?

[Chris Nerio]

I am currenlty looking for my 2nd flip in DC, 3rd flip total. With relatively little experience with a market trending down, I wanted to get some insight into how other flippers are mitigating their risk in current DC market conditions. Some questions I have are:

1. If you use the 70% rule, are you using 65% or 60% rule now for example? Is this dependent on certain data points? If so what data?

2. What data are you considering more now other than just comps to come up with ARV? More DOM? Lower ARV in general, for example, house just sold for $500k in May '25, how much lower will you lower yours, if any, taking into account DOM are increasing, price cuts, etc?

3. Is any of this even relevant because I should just target zipcodes/neighborhoods that match my buyers box and show homes are still moving? The concern with this is that I may be priced out of these neighborhoods

Appreciate the response, thank you!

[Chris Seveney]

Quote from @Russell Brazil:

Quote from @Chris Nerio:

I am currenlty looking for my 2nd flip in DC, 3rd flip total. With relatively little experience with a market trending down, I wanted to get some insight into how other flippers are mitigating their risk in current DC market conditions. Some questions I have are:

1. If you use the 70% rule, are you using 65% or 60% rule now for example? Is this dependent on certain data points? If so what data?

2. What data are you considering more now other than just comps to come up with ARV? More DOM? Lower ARV in general, for example, house just sold for $500k in May '25, how much lower will you lower yours, if any, taking into account DOM are increasing, price cuts, etc?

3. Is any of this even relevant because I should just target zipcodes/neighborhoods that match my buyers box and show homes are still moving? The concern with this is that I may be priced out of these neighborhoods

Appreciate the response, thank you!

Look at comps and price in a lower ARV by 5%.

Percentage rules don't matter. Look at actual profit. Most flippers in DC are willing to take a $50-60k profit on properties around or under $1 million.

 Agree, its about how much you willing to make not a percentage - as my wife says - she never asks what percentage return am I putting in the bank account - she asks how much $ is going into the account..