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Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2011 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
10y
@Kathleen L. and @Sergey Tkachev, thanks for tagging others. And glad you can make it Mel, and thanks for sharing. Feel free to tag others on here.. (Kathleen, I'll actually be there! Departing 3/11 I believe...)
I had dinner with Brian the other night and talked to him about potentially expanding my business. As always, he had some sage advice and questions to make me think deeper about how I grow my business and create true long-term success. He reminded me it's not just about momentum and a good deal.. It's about timing! When else do you get to sit down with an amazing RE investor with a huge portfolio of multifamily, house flips, and hundreds of single family homes, get economic and piloting lessons, and have a fantastic Italian meal in quaint downtown Santa Rosa.. Only with Brian Burke!! Looking forward to more of his insights at the Summit!!
Investor · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2014 · 308 posts · 94 votes
10y
Thanks @Al Williamsonfor putting the event together. I had a good time even with the "protesters". I also want to say a thank you to the other presenters Brian Burke and @Ben Leybovich for taking time out of their schedules to come down and speak. Thank you Embert for handling the transitions, Daniel Hernandez for helping organize the event, @J. Martinfor helping facilitate the panel discussion, and thank you for everyone the showed up to make the event a success. Thank you @Elizabeth Colegrovefor the side conversation during one of the intermissions and I hope you find success on the property hunt up in Washington (sooner rather than later). I enjoyed talking with you @Jason Flynnand hope the future remodel of your Mid town house continues as planed. Thank you to all the folks at the dinner after the event for the great conversation and personal stories of your own real estate adventures. I am looking forward to building on the relationships that started yesterday and seeing what the future holds.
Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2011 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
10y
Thanks again to @Al Williamsonfor putting together a great event with AWESOME people! Congrats to all those out there making things happen! Glad I got to meet you!
I promised some graphs on the Sacramento market, so here they are.. The first is given 100% credit to @Brian Burke, as I am recreating his chart from his presentation - because I think it is SO important to understand deceleration when looking at macro trends. His graph looking at the quarterly (annualized) price changes and the annual percent changes is a great way to see this:
Annual % Change in RE Prices (Blue) vs. Quarterly % Change (Red, annualized rate) - Sacramento - Roseville - Arden - Arcade MSA
Again, thanks to Brian Burke for this perspective on the graph. You can see that all the way back in 2005, the quarterly rate was dropping lower than the annual rate of appreciation as both were falling. Now remember - these falling lines indicate DECELERATION - a slowing rate of appreciation. We went from hot 20-25% annual appreciation (and up to 10% in one quarter - 40% annualized) in 2004-2005, dropping to 10% by the end of 2005, and trending towards 0% in early 2006.
Why is this important? Because deceleration precedes flattening or downturns in prices! "But J, that was just the last downturn! Who knows what will happen with appreciation? It's anyone's wild-*** guess!" I would argue: "Not uh!"
It's been happening since before I was born!!! Beginning of the end of great price appreciation for Sac, as seen at the end of most cycles..?
Red Price Appreciation (right) w/ job growth and economic conditions in Sac area on left
w/ CA Leading Index
Where is the trend going? To the upper right? Or lower right? What do you think are the prospects for home price appreciation accelerating vs decelerating? If I were a gambling man, I would probably put my chips on the latter!
Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
10y
This was a great event yesterday, @Al Williamsonand his team did a great job putting this together...it was evident that it was no small effort. It was great seeing a lot of people again, there was somewhat of a mini-reunion of @J. Martin's event in SF a year ago. And it was great meeting a lot of people for the first time.
By the way, great charts, J. I side with you--I think there is a higher probability of decelerating appreciation in most markets. Depreciation? I don't think so, at least not in the near future to a significant extent. But slowing appreciation or a leveling off for a while...I'd vote it's most likely.
Investor · austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 33 posts · 13 votes
10y
It was the first REI or BP event I attended and had great conversation with @Brian Burke, @Ben Leybovich and @Al Williamson. I was told the event was not video recorded, unfortunately. Where can I find the slidesets of the respective speakers? Thank you
Engineer · Santa Ynez, CA · Member since 2013 · 72 posts · 23 votes
10y
That was awesome! It was worth the drive, again, from Santa Ynez, to see the bay area investors. It had a reunion feel from last year's event. This time, I acknowledged Brian Burke's advise about timing. In fact, I recorded 20 min of his presentation. It is available for the low price of $999!
Thanks J. Martin, Al Williamson, Ben Laybovich for a knowledgeable event with great people to network with.
Investor, Agent, CPA · West Sacramento, CA · Member since 2009 · 690 posts · 262 votes
10y
This was a great event, thank you @Al Williamsonand the team for putting this together! It was great hearing@Brian Burkeagain, Brian, thank you for being with your knowledge and experience, it means a lot especially to those of us who are in the early stages of RE experience! And thank you @Ben Leybovichfor coming out - it was good to finally meet you in person, thank you for sharing about negotiations from a Greek philosophical perspective, it gave me something new to think about!
I wasn't able to make the dinner and am sure I missed out. The time at the Guild Theater flew by FAST and I felt that I barely got a chance to talk to everyone I wanted to (for example, @Chris Vail- I didn't even see you there and only realized you attended after seeing your post here :)). This leads me to think that it would be great to have local meetups more often and events like the Guild Summit and the RE Summit that @J. Martinput together last year at least once a year :)
@Tyler Haskell, it was great seeing you again, @Elijah Artmanand others as well! @Rashad Sullivan, @Narmina Gasanbek, @Michael Murphree, @Jesse Hinaman and others - it was great to meet you!
Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
10y
@Al Williamson- I flew 12 hours there and 12 back, and I am glad I did. Great event, Al!
J and Brian - here's a question for you, guys. It seems that a lot of the dollars are flowing out of tech into RE, both in terms of primary residence purchases, and investment equity. If this is true to any significant extent, then can't it be said that a slow down in tech will necessary bring with it a slow down in price appreciation of homes and rents?
There are some people, of which I am one, who think that tech might be over-priced at this point, and a correction is not far... Thoughts?
@Al Williamson- I flew 12 hours there and 12 back, and I am glad I did. Great event, Al!
J and Brian - here's a question for you, guys. It seems that a lot of the dollars are flowing out of tech into RE, both in terms of primary residence purchases, and investment equity. If this is true to any significant extent, then can't it be said that a slow down in tech will necessary bring with it a slow down in price appreciation of homes and rents?
There are some people, of which I am one, who think that tech might be over-priced at this point, and a correction is not far... Thoughts?
Ben, great meeting you in person! Glad you could make it out! And thanks again Al!
There has been much discussion about tech and RE recently. The stock market is certainly correlated with Bay Area RE (as it is correlated with many other parts of the economy, along with RE..)
And jobs, economy, and leading indeces..
Here was a good recent article:
"“In terms of wages, San Francisco has among the most industry-concentrated labor forces in the country, with almost one-half of all earnings generated across just three sectors,” Bailey said...
Burns and Pacific Union noted that the size of the average venture deal rose from $4.9 million in 1997 to $17 million in 2000, a 243% increase. At the same time, apartment rents in San Francisco and San Jose increased by 52% and 60%, respectively.
Burns also noted that in the three years that followed — as VC funding collapsed during the 2001 recession and the turmoil that followed the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks — rents fell with the decline in VC funding, which plunged from an average of $16 million per VC deal in 2001 to just over $7 million by 2004, a decline of over 50%.
During the same time frame, average rents in San Francisco plunged from about $2,300 a month in mid-2001 to about $1,600 by 2004, a decline of about 30%, according to data compiled by Burns’s group from PricewaterhouseCoopers, Axiometrics Inc. and Thomson/Reuters.
Rents in San Jose fell even further, from a similar average of $2,300 a month to $1,400 a month, or a decline of about 39%, Burns’s research showed."