STR Performance Drop – Just Mammoth or Industry-Wide?

[Timothy Hogan]

Hey all – curious to get your perspective on this.

We’ve consistently outperformed the market in Mammoth Lakes, CA for the past few years. Good photos, Guest Favorite on Airbnb, Superhost, strong reviews, fast response time – the usual playbook. But lately, nothing is working. Occupancy is down, even with competitive pricing and strong listing health.

According to Pricelabs, May occupancy in the area is down 15–20% year over year… and nearly 35% down from 2023. That’s huge. And yet, the platform is still recommending pricing that’s significantly higher than what other units are going for – likely because it doesn’t factor in discounts and last-minute deals being manually added by other hosts.

Meanwhile, it feels like we’re in a race to the bottom. People are slashing rates just to grab the few guests still booking. But even at a discount, bookings are sluggish. And here’s the thing: we’ve always beaten the market. So why aren’t we beating it now?

Here’s what I’m wondering:

• -Is this a mountain town issue (snow-dependent shoulder seasons, regional taxes, etc.)?

• -Is it a Mammoth-specific issue (overdevelopment, tourism board strategy changes, increased STR saturation)?

• -Or is it a broader macroeconomic issue (national slowdown in discretionary travel, inflation, AI fatigue on platforms, etc.)?

I’ve seen arguments for all three:

• -Some say tourism boards are shifting focus away from 100% occupancy and pushing for “quality over quantity” (good for locals, maybe bad for investors).

• -Others think it's just the end of the COVID STR gold rush and we're entering a new "normal."

• -And a few believe it’s inflation + oversupply + a national downturn in travel spending.

Would love to hear from other owners/investors. What are you seeing in your markets? Are bookings down everywhere, or is this hyper-local? And if you’ve found strategies that are still working to drive consistent revenue – not just occupancy – please share.

Thanks in advance!

[Collin Hays]

Macro issue.  Travel is way off this year.  That’s why you are getting cruise offers in your mailbox once a week, and Southwest Airlines is running a perpetual 50% off sale.

This is the part of the business when the tide goes out and we find out who isn’t wearing their swim trunks.