All Forum Posts by: Timothy Hogan

Hey all – curious to get your perspective on this.

We’ve consistently outperformed the market in Mammoth Lakes, CA for the past few years. Good photos, Guest Favorite on Airbnb, Superhost, strong reviews, fast response time – the usual playbook. But lately, nothing is working. Occupancy is down, even with competitive pricing and strong listing health.

According to Pricelabs, May occupancy in the area is down 15–20% year over year… and nearly 35% down from 2023. That’s huge. And yet, the platform is still recommending pricing that’s significantly higher than what other units are going for – likely because it doesn’t factor in discounts and last-minute deals being manually added by other hosts.

Meanwhile, it feels like we’re in a race to the bottom. People are slashing rates just to grab the few guests still booking. But even at a discount, bookings are sluggish. And here’s the thing: we’ve always beaten the market. So why aren’t we beating it now?

Here’s what I’m wondering:

• -Is this a mountain town issue (snow-dependent shoulder seasons, regional taxes, etc.)?

• -Is it a Mammoth-specific issue (overdevelopment, tourism board strategy changes, increased STR saturation)?

• -Or is it a broader macroeconomic issue (national slowdown in discretionary travel, inflation, AI fatigue on platforms, etc.)?

I’ve seen arguments for all three:

• -Some say tourism boards are shifting focus away from 100% occupancy and pushing for “quality over quantity” (good for locals, maybe bad for investors).

• -Others think it's just the end of the COVID STR gold rush and we're entering a new "normal."

• -And a few believe it’s inflation + oversupply + a national downturn in travel spending.

Would love to hear from other owners/investors. What are you seeing in your markets? Are bookings down everywhere, or is this hyper-local? And if you’ve found strategies that are still working to drive consistent revenue – not just occupancy – please share.

Thanks in advance!

Thanks @Monica Der, I've got the question into my CPA as well. 

Hi all!

Tax and property related question:

I have my primary residence listed on a site called Peerspace, which is basically like Airbnb for photo and video shoots.

I'd like to start promoting this more, as it is another way to optimize rental revenue. 

My question is - how can I write off improvements to the property (landscaping, renovations etc) as they tie into the "product" and related rental revenues? Can I invest in the property though my existing photography business and write off? 

Any guidance would be appreciated!

Also, if Peerspace is active in your area, I highly suggest putting up any properties you have. Commercial shoots can and will pay thousands daily for beautiful spaces. 

Tim

Thanks @Shelby Pracht!

No Kidding! That's so cool @V.G Jason. Hope you enjoyed it! Let's definitely stay in touch.

@Michael Baum - you hit the nail on the head. Avid snowboarder, backcountry addict and mountain biker. While this is primarily an investment, I plan on making the use of the space as well and spending more time in the Sierras. I'm fine with it breaking even for the first couple years, and bringing in some cashflow in the future. 

Thanks for the reply @Michael Baum. 

Mammoth is a year-round destination, which is a plus. Summer is mountain biking, hiking, golf, yosemite etc etc. Lake mary is a 5 minute drive. Plus this year we'll likely be skiing into August!

Slow seasons are spring and fall. 

At average nightly rate, ($234), 70% occupancy is break even at the current mortgage rate. Definitely don't think I can hit 85% (yet). ;-) The game of course changes when I can refi (2 years?). 

You're absolutely right though.. I don't think it's a home run.

Hi all-

Crunching numbers on a STR Mammoth Lakes, CA. Posting a similar thread to the Gatlinburg thread by @Amit Sharma.

Backstory:

This would be my second door, but first in the Mammoth market. 
I currently run a 1br in Ojai, CA with nearly 300+ 5* reviews and 2022 gross of $76k.
I have systems in place and have a good handle on remotely managing an str. 
Mammoth is a hot market (despite, or maybe because of all the snow... lol). Lots of competition. 

About the unit:

1br plus loft, will sleep 6.
Needs some updating, but that is one of my specialties. 
Appraisal came in at $522k - UNDER accepted offer, which is an entirely other thread.

Competitive analysis for 2br units in my adjacent area. Removed the ones with zero rentals etc:

Avg nightly rate: $235
Avg occupancy: 54%
Avg gross rev: $47k
Top performers are upwards of 85% occupancy and $86k gross - and I've stayed in the top grossing unit. It was nothing special. 

STR analysis from Avery Carl attached. 60k ($13k higher than average) seems to be my break even with the current interest rate. Note - cleaning fees in the calculator max out at $300 total monthly, so I'd expect an additional cost here. (I believe it's a bug in the calculator @Avery Carl.)

Q: Assuming seller will agree to reduce price to appraisal value , am I crazy to think I can beat the averages on occupancy?
Q: Historically, does anyone have data for inventory in ski towns? Better to buy in summer or winter? I've heard anecdotal evidence that suggests inventory is higher in summer, however interest rates will likely be higher then too!

Any input would be appreciated!

@Account Closed - how did it go with the purchase? I'm interested in getting into this space. Any insight you have would be welcome! 

Hi @Ryan Moyer - I should have been more clear. It was a reference to hospitable.com and their previous branding smartbnb, where the listing appeared more active and favorable because of price updates. 

However, hospitable.com also has said their updates do not influence rankings, which brings my question more directly:

Airbnb clearly wants hosts to use Smart Pricing - and I do not see a meaningful difference in the results of SmartPricing vs Pricelabs. 

So the question is whether the minimal differences in the pricelabs algorithm are effective other than pushing to VRBO and Booking.com, and worth potential negative algorithmic effects on Airbnb. 

Tim

May have answered my own question. From Hospitable.com support (who are super helpful)

"Those promotions will never display on Hospitable.com or PriceLabs. You won't be able to see them there. We will only ever show the price that PriceLabs sent us.Then when we send that to Airbnb, we will still only send the price from PriceLabs. So let's say you have an orphan night and you have a promotion on Airbnb for those (let's say a 15% discount). If PriceLabs sent us $200 for that night, we will send that to Airbnb. Then, when a guest goes to book that date, they should see $170. The same applies if you have promotions set up on Booking.com."

Tim