USVI (St. Croix) STR data — is AirDNA even accurate here?

Question

Looking at short term rental potential in St. Croix, USVI and the data situation is rough. AirDNA seems to exist for the territory but I’ve seen mixed opinions on how reliable it actually is for a market this small. No PropStream/BatchLeads coverage either, so comps and ownership records are mostly manual digging.

Anyone actually operating an STR in the USVI (St. Croix, St. Thomas, or St. John)? Specifically curious about:

• How accurate AirDNA’s numbers have actually been vs. your real occupancy/ADR

• Realistic occupancy given hurricane season (May–Nov) softness

• Whether self-managing vs. using a local PM changes the math much

Trying to get a real picture before committing capital.

Chris Seveney · Answer

When I looked at St. Thomas and St. John and the data was all over the place. What made the biggest difference wasn't the platform, it was location within the island. A property on the right side of the hill from the right beach in the right pocket could outperform a comparable unit a half mile away by a wide margin.

The most reliable data in a market like this sits with local agents and PMs who have operated through multiple hurricane seasons. Find two or three of them and have a direct conversation before you rely on anything a dashboard is telling you. That's your real due diligence where the data tools stop at the shoreline.

Also not sure where you are located, but you absolutely must visit this type of property (Also recommend updating your name in your bio)

Angela Venger · Answer

Airdna analyzed my property at $43k gross revenue. We actually did $105k. Those analyze tools just give you an idea. It pulls numbers from nearby operators, but it's not smart enough to know what amenities a host provides or how they actually operate the property.

Whether a property cash flows or not depends on your purchase price, down payment, mortgage rate, expenses, and most importantly, what amenities you have that stand out from your competitors. And what kind of guest you're targeting

Collin Hays · Answer

The AirDNA stuff can be off by a wide margin. It's best to look at like properties on VRBO or Airbnb and do some comparisons. Rates, amenities, occupancy levels, etc.  You will feel far better about your decision by doing some of that dirty work yourself.

Andrew Steffens · Answer

Sort of piggybacking on what Chris said above, the bet data is local people - for that I recommend trying to look into local host groups on Facebook.  Even in the US, data is helpful but boots on the ground knowledge is invaluable.

Good luck!

USVI (St. Croix) STR data — is AirDNA even accurate here?

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